[Three Cents Worth NY #244] Manhattan’s Middle Market Shows Life

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I thought I’d take a look at the breakdown of sales by price in the most recently completed quarter. Last year I was using a donut analogy to describe the Manhattan apartment market—weak in middle and strong on the outside (bottom/top). I wanted to illustrate how the mix in 2013 could be showing signs of change rather than continuing to see a disproportionate amount of activity on the margins. For reference I provided an inset in the form of a pie (sorry) chart to show a simple breakdown of the market in the second quarter of 2013…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Middle Market Shows Life [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #241] Brooklyn Prices Closing Gap With Manhattan

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After last week’s release of our rental report for Manhattan and Brooklyn and with all the talk about the gap between the boroughs closing, I thought I’d revisit the topic and add the sales market to the rental mix…

As an added bonuses, notice all the troll commentary in this post. I’m noticing there is more of this as the market rises.

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Brooklyn Prices Closing Gap With Manhattan [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth #245 NY] Manhattan Puts Best (Square) Foot Forward

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After a long weekend and a suggestion from a friend, I thought I’d take a different look at how we got here by measuring the total square footage sold as a market metric. It reveals a somewhat different post-Lehman perspective than would be derived from price. The blue columns represent the total square footage closed during each period that were available immediately following the period. The pink horizontal lines represent average square footage sold per period and were described with a key market attribute during that period…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Puts Best (Square) Foot Forward [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth #249 Miami] The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Monday, October 28, 2013, 7:56 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to observe.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

Miami has become a market with a lot of moving parts so it’s best not to throw all the data into one bucket and call it a day. Last week Douglas Elliman released the 4 South Florida market reports I author for them including Miami and this week’s charts were taken from data compiled in the report. I presented a bunch of metrics in the single family and condo market broken out by the distressed and non-distressed markets. Distressed property are defined here as short sales and foreclosures…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth #248 NY] Manhattan’s Labor Day Listing Bottom

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Friday, October 4, 2013, 10:20 AM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Over the past five years (and for the 13+ years I’ve collected Manhattan listing inventory), supply bottoms in August and begins a short ascent in the fall. I took a look at the two-week period before and after the Labor Day bottom over the past five years…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Labor Day Listing Bottom [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth #247 NY] Manhattan Unit Sizes No Small Change

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Friday, September 20, 2013, 3:52 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After last week’s rental market report release, I thought I’d take a look at the average size of a sale and a rental over the past 20 years. Sales (blue line) represent co-ops and condos that closed during each period. Rentals (pink line) represent rentals that closed during each period…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Unit Sizes No Small Change [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #235] Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Tuesday, June 18, 2013, 5:47 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

As much as I dislike 3D charts and don’t want Curbed readers to wear 3D glasses smeared with greasy popcorn butter, I thought I’d use them on a simple topic. For each quarterly market report release, I group Manhattan into four distinct geographic regions and measure the market share of their sales during each quarter. This chart shows the market share of each region based on sales activity by region…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #234] Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Wednesday, June 12, 2013, 3:50 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I took a look at Manhattan’s year-over-year listing trends by the number of bedrooms on a weekly basis. I threw in a few milestones using ridiculous artwork (hey, this is Curbed!) to help provide some context. To state the obvious, listing inventory is very volatile and there are periods of time where certain segments stray from the pack. It’s clear that the top end of the market (four bedrooms, pink line) strayed the most over the past few years as many owners tried to piggyback onto a handful of trophy sales…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #237] Manhattan Prices ‘n Rates Don’t Jibe

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Thursday, July 11, 2013, 10:45 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Mortgage rates are rising and that’s probably a good long-term thing for the housing market in NYC and nationwide. One of the biggest misunderstandings about the market is the correlation between mortgage interest rate and price trends—sometimes I’ll get caught up in it myself. The logic follows that rising mortgage rates will leave less room for principal in the monthly housing payment and then prices fall. Makes sense logically if you don’t factor in access to credit. In the short term, changes in mortgage rates may have some knee jerk impact on prices—we often see demand surges with sudden rate changes—but over the long term it’s hard to pin down the cause and effect relationship between rates and prices using actual data. It’s never been successfully correlated to my knowledge…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Prices ‘n Rates Don’t Jibe [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #232] The Manhattan GRM Is Too Damn High

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Wednesday, May 29, 2013, 10:19 AM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Not a very original title, but after realizing the long weekend was unfairly ending after only three days, I took a look at the relationship between sales prices and rental prices through the “gross rent multiplier” aka GRM. I presented the relationship between median sales price and annualized median rental price since 1991 as a ratio…

[click to expand chart]

Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: The Manhattan GRM Is Too Damn High [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #230] Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Sunday, May 12, 2013, 1:09 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Since Manhattan sales are fairly heavy right now—basically we’re at High Noon of the annual housing market cycle—I wanted to look at how important spring is to the market and explore how housing sales patterns have changed over the past few decades. I plotted the sales market share for each quarter and separated them into their own charts. For example: 2Q 2012 (last year’s spring market) had sales that represented 25.2 percent of all sales for 2012. I then applied a trend line to each quarter to cut through the volatility. The four quarters (sort of) correlate with the four seasons…

[click to expand chart]

Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #229] $3,000 is the new $1,500 in Manhattan

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Tuesday, April 23, 2013, 11:45 AM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Given all the hype about new development product entering the listing-starved Manhattan market over the next couple of years, I thought I’d take a look at the market share of co-ops and condos over the last decade (the boom and bust era), but in a different way. For the uninitiated, Manhattan co-op housing units outnumber condo units 3:1 (i.e. 75 percent v. 25 percent market share)…

[click to expand chart]

Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: $3,000 is the new $1,500 in Manhattan [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #187] Manhattan Mortgage Rates Are Listing

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, April 24, 2012, 11:11 PM
Comments Off

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read today’s 3CW post on Curbed New York:

By far the three most popular observations about the Manhattan housing market to date in 2012 are: “mortgage rates are at historic lows” and “listing inventory is tight” and…ok, there are just two that are worthy.

I thought I’d mash them together and see what happened since I’ve never made the direct association. Admittedly I was surprised with the visual that resulted….

[click to expand]

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #218] Manhattan’s Thanksgiving Listing Spread

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Tuesday, November 20, 2012, 4:39 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

I started off trending the month-over-month percentage change in doorman (green line) and non-doorman (orange line) listings and they showed a very similar pattern [yawn] so I left the lines alone and looked at the larger pattern of peaks and troughs in listing activity at the end of the year. I’ve been tracking listing trends for more than a decade on a quarterly basis but only on a monthly basis since 2008 so I can’t go back pre-Lehman. I am especially interested in each fall market’s second sales hump (spring is hump number one) of the annual two-hump sales camel that occurs before the Thanksgiving holiday…

[click to expand chart]

Today’s Post: Manhattan’s Thanksgiving Listing Spread [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #216] Manhattan’s Steamy Absorption Rates

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Thursday, November 8, 2012, 2:36 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Manhattan listing inventory has been sliding for a few years yet sales have remained stable—playing havoc with the monthly absorption rate. The absorption rate used here is the number of months to sell all active listings at the annualized rate of sales activity. I like it because puts supply and demand into the same metric. I see it as defining the “pace” of the market. It is important to note that there are periods when inventory is rising AND sales are rising and vice versa, so limiting the view to only one of the two metrics tells just half the story…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth Miami #209] The Miami Vice Of Sales & Price

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Saturday, September 15, 2012, 12:23 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

…I’ve been on a “rotating gif” tear lately so I took a look at the ebb and flow of Miami sales and price trends since the mid-decade peak and the current market resurgence. I think people get hung up on the idea that prices represent the health of a housing market when they really are a vice. As prices continued to surge during the boom, sales fell sharply and most consumers looked the other way. I contend a recovery is all about sales activity because it leads prices – and Miami is seeing more sales activity these days…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #195] The Kitchen (Sales and Listings) Sync

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 8:02 AM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read my most recent 3CW post on @CurbedNY:

Coming off of last week’s listing theme and my near obsession with figuring out what is normal these days, I thought I’d compare listing and rental trends over an extended period of time. My in-house rental listing data only goes back to 2002 so I began both series with 2003 to get the year-over-year trend.

[click to expand]

Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami Three Cents Worth Archive

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #188] Manhattan Rent v. Buy v. Location v. Size

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 1:20 PM
1 Comment

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read today’s 3CW post on Curbed New York:

Since we are in some sort of rent versus buy gray zone right now, I thought I’d create a “gray” matrix showing the market share differences in location and apartment size based on the buy and rental market in Manhattan. This is not a rent versus buy analysis but rather a comparison between two distinctly different markets…

[click to expand to humungous version]

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth DC #194] DC’s Housing Market Turns The Tide; Good News For Sellers

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Monday, June 11, 2012, 11:01 AM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed DC, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the nation’s capitol. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read today’s 3CW post on @CurbedDC:

Here’s my chart version of the May 2012 report published by RBI/MRIS. They’ve got terrific data and when Curbed DC asked me to go old school and bring back the charts so the trends would be easier to understand, I gladly obliged. I called up my inner Three Cents Worth days in DC…

[click to expand]

View the original article here

[Three Cents Worth NY #210] Manhattan Housing Talks Like a Pirate

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 5:03 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Out of respect for International Talk Like A Pirate Day I thought I’d comment on housing metrics that would provide seaworthy analogies to prepare us for the next round of Manhattan housing market reports (i.e. our 3Q 2012 market reports we’ll be publishing with Douglas Elliman) in less than two weeks when the quarter ends. For this edition of 3CW I matched up Manhattan co-op/condo absorption rates and the year-over-year change in median sales price of the last decade. Absorption covers sales and listing trends and prices cover, well, you know what they cover. For the purposes of my analysis I define absorption as the number of months it would take to sell all active inventory at the current pace of sales…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

View the original article here