[Three Cents Worth NY #244] Manhattan’s Middle Market Shows Life

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I thought I’d take a look at the breakdown of sales by price in the most recently completed quarter. Last year I was using a donut analogy to describe the Manhattan apartment market—weak in middle and strong on the outside (bottom/top). I wanted to illustrate how the mix in 2013 could be showing signs of change rather than continuing to see a disproportionate amount of activity on the margins. For reference I provided an inset in the form of a pie (sorry) chart to show a simple breakdown of the market in the second quarter of 2013…

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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Middle Market Shows Life [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #248 NY] Manhattan’s Labor Day Listing Bottom

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Friday, October 4, 2013, 10:20 AM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Over the past five years (and for the 13+ years I’ve collected Manhattan listing inventory), supply bottoms in August and begins a short ascent in the fall. I took a look at the two-week period before and after the Labor Day bottom over the past five years…

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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Labor Day Listing Bottom [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #234] Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Wednesday, June 12, 2013, 3:50 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I took a look at Manhattan’s year-over-year listing trends by the number of bedrooms on a weekly basis. I threw in a few milestones using ridiculous artwork (hey, this is Curbed!) to help provide some context. To state the obvious, listing inventory is very volatile and there are periods of time where certain segments stray from the pack. It’s clear that the top end of the market (four bedrooms, pink line) strayed the most over the past few years as many owners tried to piggyback onto a handful of trophy sales…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend [Curbed]
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Lower Manhattan’s Early November Rental Activity Down 70% Y-O-Y

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Thursday, November 29, 2012, 12:40 PM

I took a look at closed rental activity for the first part of November, two days after Sandy left us to observe it’s impact of rental activity in Lower Manhattan. For these purposes, I defined this area as the 4 zip codes of 10280, 10004, 10005, 10006 when trying to show a before and after metric. I could have gone later in the month (ie today) but I wanted to have a good week of data to fall in after the expiration of the period analyzed so the year-over-year was more comparable.

There were 199 closed rentals in this period in 2011 compared to 60 closed rentals in 2012, a 69.8% drop in rental activity. However, the decline is due to buildings being off line and there being initial access issues, not lack of demand. With 40 something commercial and rental buildings off line in a more broadly defined Lower Manhattan, inventory remains tight and it is hard to see much in the way of a reprieve in rental price levels as a result of the storm.

The mapping software I have isn’t able to reflect multiple apartment rentals in a building. Still, you can see fewer locations represented in 2012.

November 1-21, 2012

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November 1-21, 2011

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[Three Cents Worth NY #218] Manhattan’s Thanksgiving Listing Spread

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Tuesday, November 20, 2012, 4:39 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

I started off trending the month-over-month percentage change in doorman (green line) and non-doorman (orange line) listings and they showed a very similar pattern [yawn] so I left the lines alone and looked at the larger pattern of peaks and troughs in listing activity at the end of the year. I’ve been tracking listing trends for more than a decade on a quarterly basis but only on a monthly basis since 2008 so I can’t go back pre-Lehman. I am especially interested in each fall market’s second sales hump (spring is hump number one) of the annual two-hump sales camel that occurs before the Thanksgiving holiday…

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Today’s Post: Manhattan’s Thanksgiving Listing Spread [Curbed]
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[Three Cents Worth NY #216] Manhattan’s Steamy Absorption Rates

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Thursday, November 8, 2012, 2:36 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Manhattan listing inventory has been sliding for a few years yet sales have remained stable—playing havoc with the monthly absorption rate. The absorption rate used here is the number of months to sell all active listings at the annualized rate of sales activity. I like it because puts supply and demand into the same metric. I see it as defining the “pace” of the market. It is important to note that there are periods when inventory is rising AND sales are rising and vice versa, so limiting the view to only one of the two metrics tells just half the story…

[click to read column]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #182] Charting Manhattan’s Sales History

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, March 20, 2012, 2:06 PM
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read today’s 3CW post on Curbed New York:

This is the final chart of the Manhattan scatter graph trifecta. I thought this format was a great way to look at the entirety of the market with better context. This week I am literally long on graphics and short on text. I used the same approach as two weeks ago but divided the market into easier-to-view scaled segments and then placed them on top of each other aligned by years. A few things stood out:…

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[Three Cents Worth #164] Manhattan’s Seasonal Sales Heartbeat

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

…There has been a lot of discussion about returning to a more normal (someone please define “normal”) market as compared to the insanity of the past two years, and perhaps all of 2003-2007 for that matter. To explore this idea, I took the % market share of sales for each quarter and compared it to the other three quarters in the same year over the past two decades…

Three Cents Worth: Manhattan’s Seasonal Sales Heartbeat

[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]

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