[Three Cents Worth NY #216] Manhattan’s Steamy Absorption Rates

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Thursday, November 8, 2012, 2:36 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Manhattan listing inventory has been sliding for a few years yet sales have remained stable—playing havoc with the monthly absorption rate. The absorption rate used here is the number of months to sell all active listings at the annualized rate of sales activity. I like it because puts supply and demand into the same metric. I see it as defining the “pace” of the market. It is important to note that there are periods when inventory is rising AND sales are rising and vice versa, so limiting the view to only one of the two metrics tells just half the story…

[click to read column]

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View the original article here

[Manhattan Absorption] February 2012 Y-O-Y $10M+ Slows A Bit

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, March 13, 2012, 10:00 AM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons

Manhattan Most price segments below $3M remained faster than 10-year average pace of sales. $3M-$5M and $10M+ slowed while $5M-$10M accelerated.East Side Co-op absorption continued to remain slower than a year ago pace of sales. Condo pace of absorption, specifically below $2M noticeably accelerated.West Side Sub-$2M more or less the same as last year. Weaker above $10M.Downtown Same as last month – the rates by segment generally accelerated below $5M and $10M+. The $5 to $10M segment slowed.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

View the original article here

[Manhattan Absorption] January 2012 Y-O-Y Pace Generally Accelerating

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 27, 2012, 8:50 AM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

Thoughts

Manhattan All price segments below $3M were faster than the 10 year absorption rate. Segments above $3M showed signs of cooling, specifically in the $3M-$5M and $10M+ range.East Side Co-op absorption showed an across-the-board slow down with all segments remaining higher than the 10-year overall average rate. Conversely, the rate for condos accelerated for all segments but the $2M and $10M+.West Side All absorption price segments generally accelerated with the exception of $10M+ that slowed sharply.Downtown The rates by segment generally accelerated below $5M and $10M+. The $5 to $10M segment slowed.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

View the original article here

[Manhattan Absorption] July 2011 Strong Middle, Loose Ends

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

Thoughts
The entry level market continues to weaken but the absorption rate is consistent with the 10-year average. $500 to $2M is moving best but $1.5M to $2M is the fastest. Dowtown is most efficient market overall followed by West Side then East Side.

Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2011 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

View the original article here

[Manhattan Absorption - January 2011] A Bounty Of More Absorbent Markets

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. I started this analysis in August 2009 so as of late I am able to show side-by side comparisons. The blue line that shows the 10-year average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

The absorption rate across all price points under $3M are generally below the 10-year average. Conditions in January were generally better than during the same period a year ago although the east side saw less improvement than downtown and the west side.

[click images to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2011 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

View the original article here

[Manhattan Absorption] Holiday Quicker Picker Upper

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. I started this analysis in August 2009 so as of late I am able to show side-by side comparisons. The blue line that shows the 10-year average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

The absorption rate across all price points under $5M are generally below the 10-year average.

[click images to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2009 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

View the original article here

[Manhattan Absorption] The Fall Market Remains Stable (Boring)

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. I started this analysis in August 2009 so as of late I am able to show side-by side comparisons. The blue line that shows the 10-year average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

Not much change in absorption across price segments since last month indicating the pace of sales was offset by the level of available inventory. In other words…borrrrrinnnnnng.

[click images to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2009 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

View the original article here