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Showing posts with label Price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Price. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

[Three Cents Worth Miami #209] The Miami Vice Of Sales & Price

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Saturday, September 15, 2012, 12:23 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

…I’ve been on a “rotating gif” tear lately so I took a look at the ebb and flow of Miami sales and price trends since the mid-decade peak and the current market resurgence. I think people get hung up on the idea that prices represent the health of a housing market when they really are a vice. As prices continued to surge during the boom, sales fell sharply and most consumers looked the other way. I contend a recovery is all about sales activity because it leads prices – and Miami is seeing more sales activity these days…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive






View the original article here

Sunday, September 30, 2012

[WSJ] The Crazy 8: Comparing Results of National Home Price Indices

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Saturday, June 9, 2012, 1:18 PM

Matthew Strozier over at WSJ with Column Five (a large producer of infographics) presented an interesting side by side of 8 national housing indices.

All but one index shows a year over year decline in housing. Trulia’s new Price Monitor by Jed Kolko would be a great addition once the year-over-year history is established. It was also interesting that NAR’s Existing Home Sales was omitted (I’m not advocating).

Beyond the obvious price decline, my takeaways were:

US indices are general in sync on the year-over-year. Our confusion in the monthly barrage of housing metric releases is that most push the month-over month.With the proliferation of these indices, data subscriptions must be getting cheaper. There are a few more out there as well.Of the indices presented, their data collection and methodologies vary significantly (where disclosed) yet their results were consistent perhaps suggesting the 7 for 8 result is coincidence as opposed to an aggregated trend.Sales prices are not something we should be obsessed with as an indicator of market health (think Las Vegas, mid decade). I’d much prefer seeing more attention paid to sales trends since they are a pre-cursor to price trends if you are trying to reasonably answer the question: Has the US housing market hit bottom?

It is interesting and my rough understanding that most of these indices were created and run by economists, scientists or data wonks, many for Wall Street purposes with virtually no real estate types. That’s obviously fine until you consider what is said in barrage of monthly press releases for some, citing things that are not empirically measured in their respective reports, i.e. weather, inventory, etc. that create further confusion.

I’d love to see a side by side comparison of the lag time from the point of “meeting of the minds” between buyer and seller for each index. The significant lag time reflected in this index genre is a practical one due to the massive scale of information, but I think it would give consumers (who were generally not the intended users of any of these indices at the time they were created) a better sense of reliability for each.

National housing indices provide useful tools for setting government economic policy but the consumer’s obsession with the idea of a national housing market and it’s relevance to their local markets is, well, crazy.






View the original article here

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Manhattan Bonus to Price Multiplier – Affordability Just Below Average to The Street

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Wednesday, March 21, 2012, 9:43 AM
No Comments


[click to expand]

When I was contacted to do yesterday’s Bloomberg interview, a by-product of the producer’s call was to show the affordability of housing to Wall Street. We never covered it in the interview and I was (self) taught never to waste a good charting opportunity.

While there is no reliable causation measure of bonus size to Manhattan housing prices there has long been a connection (i.e. common sense). I took the Manhattan annual average sales price for the past 20 years and compared it to the average annual Wall Street bonus per person. The resulting multiplier shows some element of affordability: the higher the multiplier, the less affordable Manhattan housing is.

I realize there are disclaimers needed in doing this including:

With the regulatory overlay from DC rising, bonuses are becoming smaller relative to overall compensation.Not everyone on Wall Street getting a bonus lives in Manhattan (but a disproportional amount probably do).Bonus income is just less than half of total Wall Street compensation.Post-Lehman saw higher share of deferred bonus over cash.Wall Street total comp only accounts for about 25% of total NYC wages.Foreign buyers and Fortune 500 type executives have picked up some of the Wall Street slack.

With those disclaimers aside or perhaps because of them, the chart shows:

The 20 year trend shows greater affordability over time but significant volatility along the way.Post-Lehman the multiplier shows slightly weakening affordability (despite falling interest rates).The early 1990’s recession, 2001 recession and 2008 credit crunch/recession all showed sharp reductions in affordability (higher multiplier).The 20 year average annual multiplier is 9.9

Given the fact that sales contract activity seems to be ahead of last year, prices remain stable, foreign buyers continue to participate in large numbers and the economy is grinding towards improvement in the region, the decline in bonuses doesn’t appear to be a huge deal for the housing market at this point. Certainly not helpful but perhaps can be characterized as having a nominal impact on the market – if you believe this methodology.

Manhattan Bonus to Price Multiplier [Miller Samuel]
[In The Media] Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” 3-20-12 [Matrix]
Wall Street Comp’s Influence On Luxury Housing Prices [Matrix]

View the original article here

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Transbay Tower Update: "The still lower land price reflects...

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Thursday, March 15, 2012, by Philip Ferrato

View the original article here

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Globe Trotting: Under the Tuscan Sun Villa Rents For Staggering Price Tag

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Monday, February 27, 2012, by Sarah Firshein

If the Eat, Pray, Love HSN home line doesn't quite do it, now there's a better, more complete way to indulge those decadent divorcee fantasies. In fact, some might argue that this is a truly excellent way of spending any monies earned in, say, a settlement: Bramasole, the villa featured in Under the Tuscan Sun, is available for nightly rental. In the 2006 flick, Diane Lane gazes upon the dilapidated structure—actually the stuccoed farmhouse on a two-house property—and espies its sunny, post-renovation future. This, as well as the main house, were renovated in real life and boast a total of 10 bedrooms and a shared pool, heated Jacuzzi, charcoal grill, and pizza oven outside. The place may be stunningly beautiful, but the price—a staggering $2,451 to $3,831 a night—quickly puts the brakes on any dolce vita daydreaming.

· Bramasole [Italian Villas via Hooked on Houses]


View the original article here

Sunday, February 19, 2012

PriceChopper: Concrete and Steel Lovers Take Notice: 2555 Union Takes a Price Chop

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Monday, February 13, 2012, by Sally Kuchar Was: $9,250,000
Now: $8,950,000
You Save: $300,000

In October of last year Curbed told you about 2555 Union, the Stanley Saitowitz-designed concrete and steel abode in Cow Hollow that had just landed on the market with a completely reasonable and obtainable price of $9.25M. And while some commenters disagreed, we still stand by our original statement that this property is a fantastic example of contemporary residential architecture, something you don't often see around these parts. The 4-bed, 3.5-bath, 6,000 square foot home has all sorts of fancy bells and whistles, like a stainless steel toilet and an elevator to all three floors. Tell us, dear readers, what'll it take for this manse to find a buyer?
· Stanley Saitowitz-Designed Concrete and Steel Fortress Could Be Yours For a Cool $9.25M [Curbed SF]
· 2555 Union [Redfin]

2555 Union Street, San Francisco, CA

View the original article here

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Real Estate Sold: Outer Sunset: Fixer Brings In 31K Over Asking Price

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Thursday, September 29, 2011, by Philip Ferrato

2011_09_29_44thave1a.jpg
[1218 44th Avenue via Google Streetview]

Price a property correctly and it will sell. Priced perfectly, it will sell for over the asking price, as in the case of 1218 44th Avenue, the 2-bed, 1-bath fixer with a huge yard that went on the market in late June for $399,000 and closed escrow yesterday for $430,000. In the family/surfer/hipster-friendly Outer Sunset, the listing garnered some comments, including one from the realtor complaining about our 300K estimate for a stylish renovation:

You obviously don't understand the demographics of the Outer Sunset or what construction costs are. $300,000 worth of construction costs??? I will have multiple offers tomorrow. Thank you, Kevin Birmingham (Listing Agent).
We're not sure what he means by "demographics" but in a city as politically correct as San Francisco, it sounds like code for something. As for construction costs, when you factor in all the associated expenses of renovation in this town, we'll stick to our number if it's all done with permits. Plus wonder if 1218 44th Avenue has a future date with Planning Commission staff. Kudos to all- to Kevin for getting a great price for his client and to the buyer for snagging a house in a great location- for under $500K.
· Outer Sunset: Sustainable Agriculture For Surfers [Curbed SF]
· 1218 44th Avenue [Redfin]

View the original article here

Thursday, September 22, 2011

A Price War And A Beauty Contest

A report from the Capital. “In the past several years, the luster has been lost on the concept that real estate is a great way to make money. Once thought to be invulnerable to declines in value, real estate has now been brought down to earth. Nevertheless, there are some examples out there that show how a piece of property has the potential to appreciate in ways that would make getting in on the ground floor of Google or Apple pale in comparison.”

“For example, on the outskirts of Annapolis, there’s a beautiful waterfront community called Fishing Creek Farm. Last week, a new listing popped up in Fishing Creek. With an asking price of $15 million, it’s the second most expensive property currently on the market in all of Maryland. Just off the South River, you get a cozy 12,000 square-foot house on over six acres of primo waterfront, an eight-car garage for your land toys and a 196-foot pier with two boat barns.”

“We came across the original contract of sale for the land that ultimately became this enclave of exclusive homes, dated Aug. 13, 1941. So, in a place where you can now pay $15 million for a 6 acre estate, what did the whole 250 acre shootin’ match cost back in 1941? The contract sales price was $30,000!”

“Even though the housing market has taken its lumps in the last several years, real estate will always be a good long-term investment. Like they say, God ain’t makin’ no more dirt, and a couple hundred years from now, people will be saying, ‘Can you imagine that house in Fishing Creek was selling for only $15 million back in 2011?’”

From Consumer Affairs. “What’s most needed to get the economy moving again is consumer confidence, according to Mortgage Bankers Association President David Stevens, who blames the media for a relentless drumbeat of negative headlines. ‘You don’t see stories about good buying opportunities out there. You only see stories about foreclosures,’ Stevens said at a recent economic conference sponsored by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.”

“‘The Echo Boom, born from 1981 to 1991, is going to cause an extraordinary demand for homes. They will be more urban, more Latino and will marry later but it is a huge generation and its impact with be huge,’ Stevens predicted. Whether that generation winds up renting or buying will be a major factor in the nation’s future economic well-being, he said.”

“If government regulations or onerous lending standards result in homebuyers needing a 20% down payment, ‘That’s nothing more than saying you can buy a home if you’re rich. If you’re not, you’re going to (be) a renter for life,’ Stevens said.”

The Sun Gazette in Virginia. “Nearly one in four homes in Virginia with a mortgage attached to it is ‘under water.’ Virginia’s rate of 23.3 percent is nearly a full percentage point higher than the national average, according to new statistics released by CoreLogic. In addition to the homeowners in Virginia whose mortgages exceed the current value of their properties, an additional 6.1 percent are in the ‘near-negative’ category, where property values are within 5 percent of the amount owed on the mortgage. That rate, too, is higher than the national average.”

“The situation was worse in the Washington metropolitan area: Counting the District of Columbia and Maryland suburbs in addition to Northern Virginia, nearly 290,000 residential properties with a mortgage – 28.3 percent – were in a negative-equity condition in the second quarter, with an additional 5.5 percent approaching that situation.”

“In Virginia, homeowners with mortgages own a collective $426.8 billion in residential real estate, and owe just under $305 billion to lenders – a ratio of 71.7 percent. Nationally, the rate is 69.8 percent, representing $12.6 trillion in property value and $8.8 trillion in mortgage debt.”

The Virginian Pilot. “Alan Turissini of the Hampton Roads Real Estate Group of Keller Williams Elite Realtors has been listing bank-owned property for more than six years. Based on his research for broker price opinions, he said, the foreclosure rate in Hampton Roads ‘appears to have peaked, as there are less bank-owned listings in the last two months.’ Some areas, including downtown Newport News and Portsmouth, ‘were hit much harder by the foreclosure rate,’ Turissini said. Some local bank-owned houses have sold for less than $10,000.”

“Dirghayu Desai and his wife had searched for more than two years. He’d be hard-pressed to have found anything better than 6,300 square feet of brick-, mural- and granite-clad luxury within a budget that would have bought half the house only six years earlier. In fact, this home had been listed this year for $1.2 million - about $100,000 more than its 2004 purchase price. A bidding war ended at $625,000, a victory for the Desai family.”

“As a buyer, Desai recognizes his good fortune. As a seller, he realizes that his competition now includes banks. ‘So what I gain here I should be ready to lose’ on the other side, he noted.”

“Homes within the high-end market, priced at $800,000 and up, can take as long as 36 months to move, said Brenda Rawls, a Realtor with Rose & Womble Realty in Virginia Beach. She presents figures and facts, based on analysis of current absorption rates, and the seller must decide whether to price it to sell or to sit. ‘We are in a price war and a beauty contest,’ she opined.”

The Gazette in Maryland. “Existing-home sales rose last month by 4 percent in Maryland, as the median price declined by 6 percent to $241,564. Baltimore and Prince George’s counties saw the biggest jumps of 106 and 43 more sales, respectively. In Prince George’s, where sales rose by 6.4 percent over August 2010, the median sales price last month was $160,000, down 14 percent from a year ago. The median price in Baltimore County declined by 3 percent to $210,000, while sales jumped by 21.5 percent.”

“‘It’s a good time to buy with the low interest rates and prices,’ said Joanne Darling, president of the Prince George’s County Association of Realtors. ‘Many counties around us are seeing prices rise, while they continue to go down in Prince George’s. We are seeing a lot more buyers than a year ago, and ultimately that competition will drive prices higher.’”

From WBTV in North Carolina. “Tensions boiled over at homeowner’s association meeting in one east Charlotte neighborhood Tuesday night, prompting the president to quit mid-meeting. Neighbors gathered in the Boulder Creek community to angrily express their frustration over having to pay extra HOA fees to make up for a budget shortfall.”

“The board’s president came under fire repeatedly and at one point in the meeting he angrily said, ‘I’ve given up so much of my life to this HOA and all you people are looking at me like I’m the devil.’”

“After the outburst, he walked away fuming but eventually came back and continued the meeting. Boulder Creek’s board has been under fire for sending out a letter requiring homeowners to pay an extra $100 dollars in addition to the annual $230 annual HOA fee. The added assessment is to cover the thousands of dollars the budget is in the red over because dozens of homeowners are behind on their fees.”

“Several residents questioned why they had to pay extra. ‘I don’t have it,’ said one homeowner. ‘And that’s the bottom line.’ Wanda Hampton, another homeowner agreed and said, ‘I don’t owe y’all nothing and you will not get it.’”

“Fairness aside, the Boulder Creek HOA has the law on its side. North Carolina law gives HOA wide latitude allowing them to take the necessary steps to collect the fees — even threatening foreclosure. But Hampton said she isn’t backing down. ‘Like I told them, I’m not paying mine so they do whatever they have to do,’ she said. ‘Because I paid my $230 already and I refuse to pay another $100 for somebody else’s mistakes.’”

The Gaston Gazette in North Carolina. “Community One Bank foreclosed this month on every unsold home and piece of land in Gastonia’s Village at the Mountain subdivision. The neighborhood is home to upscale townhomes, which I understand developers wanted to call unpaired villas.”

“County records show homes in the area sold for as much as $285,000 in 2007. The most recent townhome – or villa – to sell went for $215,000 in August 2009. The last land to sell was a 0.09-acre parcel that went for $29,000 in December.”

The Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “A former loan officer at the troubled Beazer Homes USA Inc. has agreed to plead guilty to criminal fraud charges filed Monday in federal court, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said. Authorities charged Janette Parker, who oversaw Beazer Mortgage Corp. branches in the Carolinas and Tennessee, with three counts of mortgage fraud.”

“Court documents say she inflated the price of Beazer homes to account for buyers’ down-payment assistance - justifying the increases through false ‘upgrades’ and revised sales contracts - causing the properties to be overvalued when submitted to the Federal Housing Administration for insurance.”

“She will appear in court to enter her guilty plea and faces a maximum sentence of two years in prison for each charge, plus a fine of up to $250,000. ‘The prosecution of Ms. Parker turns the page on another chapter in the Beazer investigation,’ said U.S. Attorney David Brown of the Western District of North Carolina. ‘Ms. Parker is taking responsibility for her part in the mortgage fraud scandal caused in this district by the illegal business practices of some former Beazer Mortgage employees.’”

“The charges are the latest in a string of civil and criminal actions against the Atlanta homebuilder and its employees. The investigations followed a 2007 Observer series that found that Beazer, then a major Charlotte-area homebuilder, arranged larger loans than some customers could afford and violated federal lending rules.”

“According to court filings, Parker - who served as branch manager in Charlotte and Columbia, S.C., and later oversaw mortgage offices in Raleigh and Nashville, Tenn. - communicated with appraisers to influence them to report increased values for some homes. Parker also had Beazer sales agents add false upgrades to justify price increases, and revised sales contracts to increase sales prices and loan amounts to account for down-payment assistance, the court filing said.”


View the original article here

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Linkage: Sheryl Crow Buys; Nate Berkus Price Chops; Pantone; More!

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox.

View the original article here

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Paradise Still Has A Price In Florida

The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “The stock market’s harrowing free fall Thursday made stomachs lurch harder than the twists and turns of Walt Disney World’s Space Mountain. But it’s how the 513-point Dow Jones dive impacts visitors to the Magic Kingdom, as well as baby boomers’ retirement accounts, senior citizens’ investments and foreigners’ homebuying ability, that Florida should be watching. Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo noted that South Florida could be hit particularly hard by a plummeting market because of its many retirees and their investments.’

“‘Clearly, you’ve got some people feeling a little less wealthy than they did a few weeks ago,’ he said. ‘We’re not just talking about investment banks going belly up; we’re talking about countries going belly up.’”

“Economic turmoil in those countries could negatively affect Florida tourism, but also homebuying. About 22 percent of all foreign homebuyers nationally chose properties in Florida last year, according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors. ‘What will help us is we don’t have a big speculative bubble in housing,’ said William Stronge, a senior fellow at the Economic Development Research Institute in West Palm Beach. ‘We’ve already gone through all that and we’re not going to have that again.’”

The Associated Press. “As Americans worry about the economy and debt ceiling, international investors still perceive the U.S. as ‘the most reliable country in the world,’ said Andrew Hellinger, chief executive of Coral Gables-based Hellinger & Penabad. ‘We are a country where you can place your money for investment and know it’s safe.’”

“Stephan Gietl of Austria and his partner Fernando Levy-Hara, of Argentina, have purchased 307 South Florida condo units for $40 million, since 2009. The duo has sold most of the units, mainly to international investors. Levy-Hara says the units yield between 5 and 6 percent profit per year after maintenance fees and property taxes. ‘With the potential appreciation, if you’re buying at half the price of the bubble, you have the potential to go up 60 to 70 percent in the next five years,’ he said.”

From WINK News. “H.G.T.V.’s House Hunters is about to give the nation a real look at Southwest Florida’s housing market and Cape Coral RE/MAX realtor Victoria Yereance hopes it sets the record straight. ‘My decision to participate was not to get the message out about how unrealistic some of these buyers are but really to say, here’s what’s really going on that you aren’t seeing or reading elsewhere,’ Yereance said.”

“‘Don’t get me wrong, there are still really good deals to be had here,’ Yereance said. ‘Two years ago we were deeply discounted. This year? We’re just ‘discounted’ and the property values are going to go up.’”

“Experts say just remember: paradise still has a price.”

The Miami Herald. “Ex-teen heartthrob David Cassidy and the Miami Lakes bankers are entangled in a tug-of-war over a $1.35 million-condo that Cassidy bought in Fort Lauderdale in 2005. BankUnited drew first blood by filing a foreclosure action against Cassidy when he stopped making payment on its $900,000-exotic mortgage. ‘It’s a strategic default,’ says Cassidy’s lawyer, Jeff Harrington.”

“And Cassidy’s fighting back. He’s counter-suing for fraud. Bank officials declined comment. In their court action, they claim Cassidy now owes $916,488.62. Cassidy listed the 34th floor condo at the Las Olas River House for $1.1 million.”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Orlando continues to struggle with a bigger share of underwater homes than any other metro area in foreclosure-scarred Florida. Retiree Dorothy Nypiuk has not missed any of the $2,400 monthly payments on the $287,000 house she and her husband bought in theConway area more than a decade ago. They are struggling to pay the mortgage along with their medical bills, but at this point they aren’t ready to walk away from the house, even though it is now worth only about $200,000.”

“‘My husband doesn’t want to do that,’ she said earlier this week. ‘He has a hobby: He works in the garage on radio-controlled airplanes. If we let the house go, what would he do? Where would he go? It would be just like putting him in a coffin someplace.’”

“Maitland real-estate agent Dan Duff said Central Floridians’ attitudes about losing their homes have changed a lot since the market began its slide four years ago. ‘First there was the shame factor, and then came the mad factor, when they tried to destroy their houses to get back at the banks,’ Duff said. ‘In the last 18 months to 2.5 years, it’s been about strategic foreclosures. … Just about everybody knows the banks aren’t going to come after them. There’s too many people out there, and the banks haven’t come after them all yet.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Board-certified real estate attorney Gary M. Singer answers housing questions. Q: I own an investment property that I have stopped paying on… Recently, the lender filed a lawsuit against me to collect on the note, but it is not trying to take the property back in foreclosure. I have money in the bank and other assets. I called the lender, and it doesn’t really want the property back. I am afraid that the bank will come after my other assets. Can it? – Anonymous.”

“A: Yes. This is getting to be a much more common trend. First mortgage lenders are starting to decide that they really do not want the responsibility of owning the property, especially if it has a low value or is in disrepair. Second mortgage lenders realize that even if they foreclose the property, the first mortgage lender is going to get all of the proceeds from the foreclosure sale, leaving the second mortgage holder with little more than a legal bill.”

“The lenders know that a promissory note case is much easier — and cheaper — to bring than a foreclosure action and can be finished much faster. After the lender wins the lawsuit on the promissory note, it will get a judgment that it can execute against your other property, your bank accounts and even your wages. Plus, it still has the mortgage lien against the original property, so it can go back and take that at a later date if it decides to. I have long advised my clients that this is one of the real dangers in ’strategic defaults’ and it looks like the lenders are starting to catch on, at least a little.”

“Further, it is too late to try to transfer the assets as most states have a two-year, look-back period for fraudulent transfers made for the purpose of hiding assets to creditors. The best thing that you can do now is to fight your lender in court and try to come to some sort of settlement.”

“A prime swath of vacant land in Jupiter was sold last month to homebuilder Otto “Buz” DiVosta. The parcel, which contains nearly 300 acres and is the last large piece of undeveloped land in the town, is known as Parcel 19 and was owned by WCI Communities Inc. Sources familiar with the deal say DiVosta paid a rock-bottom price of only $6 million for the land.”

“In 2005, WCI sold off about 500 acres on the south side of Indiantown Road to Toll Brothers for a different number: $100 million. Toll Brothers developed the Jupiter Country Club there.”

“Once a local powerhouse, Dan Catalfumo’s construction empire is fading rapidly. Banks are breathing down Catalfumo’s neck, a consequence of the real estate recession: His holdings have been slammed in the past two years by lender suits seeking $100 million-plus, several of them naming the highflying multimillionaire builder personally.”

“A come-from-behind deal is believed to have netted Catalfumo $25 million: last year’s bulk sale of unsold luxury condos in Riviera Beach, twin resort towers developed and built by Catalfumo. Given the upscale condos’ sluggish sales, that would seem to be a real estate coup. But he might have received much more early on. That’s because pre-construction, during the real estate boom, developers were interested in buying the property as soon as a resort condominium was permitted. By some estimates, that would have put $50 million or more into Catalfumo’s pocket.”

“Catalfumo went his own way, though, sources said, determined to develop the building himself and sell condos in what was a white-hot condo market. He poured tens of millions of his own money into the luxury development, the sources said. By 2007, when the market stalled, lawsuits to recoup deposits as prospective buyers tried to walk away from their purchases and new buyers failed to materialize. It was a $100 million blow.”

“‘The 160-plus buyers turned into over 100 defaulting buyer lawsuits instead of closings for in excess of $100 million,’ Catalfumo told The Post.”

“Few are counting Catalfumo out. ‘I don’t think anybody really cares ‘ about the cluster of lender lawsuits, said Neil Merin, chairman of the West Palm Beach commercial real estate investment firm Merin Hunter Codman Inc. ‘We just know this is how Dan does business. When times are good, he’s here ; when times are bad, he’s gone.’”

The News Press. “When Krista Davis drives around town, through road-widening projects and around new housing developments, she can almost imagine she is back in Southwest Florida in boom times. Then, the parched air blowing through the 40-story downtown skyline — and the mere fact she is driving to work — reminds her she is in Fort Worth, Texas. ‘There is just so much work going on here and so much happening all of the time, it almost reminds me of Southwest Florida a few years ago,’ said Davis.”

“Davis and her fiance, Cape Coral native Matt McFalls, moved to Texas last year after both lost their jobs here and lost their home to foreclosure. ‘We stuck around for about six months to try to find work, but there just wasn’t anything,’ Davis said. ‘We couldn’t wait any longer.’”

“‘Texas is creating a lot of jobs right now, no question,’ said Gary Jackson, director of the Regional Economic Research Institute at FGCU. ‘It is little concerning because a lot of those jobs are high-skill jobs. We would certainly like to keep those high-skilled people here. But, if we are not employing those people, can we really consider it a loss?’”

“Agents sold 107 homes on Sanibel from January to mid-June - including nine between $2 million and $5 million - compared to 88 homes sold during the first half of 2010. During the past four months, inventory was down on Sanibel by 17 percent. Agents say it’s a result of buyers adapting to new market values, and coming to terms with what their homes are worth.”

“After too many months on the market, some sellers are lowering their asking prices on Fort Myers Beach as well, said Isabelle Wells, of Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate on Estero Boulevard. ‘People, after two or three years, are getting a little bit more realistic and they drop the price,’ she said.”

“People from out of state - who make up the bulk of island buyers - sometimes have perceptions that prices are still at unprecedented lows. ‘Even if you drop to a great price, they’re still going to argue with you that it’s too much,’ Wells said.”

“The average listing price on Fort Myers Beach was $480,154 as of the end of July, according to Trulia. Median sales price was $300,000.”

“Greg McBride is the senior financial analyst for Bankrate Inc., a financial-research firm in North Palm Beach. While some in the the housing industry complain that lenders have overcorrected for the financial wrongs of the housing bubble five and six years ago, McBride says the new sobriety in lending is just a return to pre-bubble normalcy.”

“Q: Higher down payments are not a new concept — they used to be routine, didn’t they?”

“A: Loan-approval standards are not appreciatively different than they were 15 or 20 years ago. And 15 or 20 years ago, you didn’t hear people screaming that nobody can get a loan. You didn’t hear anyone screaming, ‘Who are we going to sell all these houses to if nobody can get a loan?’”


View the original article here

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Celebrity Real Estate: Price Chops Aplenty for Mel Gibson's Relisted Malibu Manse

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, May 31, 2011, by Rob Bear

After some less-than-politically-correct statements and the box office flop of his most recent flick, The Beaver, controversial film star Mel Gibson has relisted this Malibu property for $11.75M. Set on 2.56 acres, the six-bedroom Lavender Hill Farm was first listed for $14.5M in March 2010 and was most recently asking $12.75M with no takers. With no mention of Mr. Gibson or a "celebrity owner," the listing cites the estate's many virtues: 5,500 square feet, flood-lit tennis court, media room, gym, three guest houses, and a "a 2 story entertainment pavilion with built-in BBQ, fireplace and kitchen." Gibson might not be able to find much work lately, but will he find a buyer for his palatial pad?
· 23333 Palm Canyon Ln [Zillow]
· Mel Gibson Re-Lists Malibu Property for a Million Less [Zillow Blog]


View the original article here

Thursday, June 2, 2011

A Bright Side Of The Housing Price Decline

A report from the New York Daily News. “A rundown, half-finished Brooklyn condo untouched since the dog days of the financial crisis has neighbors fuming. The ramshackle site in Homecrest is the shame of the neighborhood - and just one of hundreds of buildings in the city where work has stalled over the past few years. ‘They can’t afford to work on that building anymore,’ said Irving Goldfarb who lives near the unfinished condo. ‘They ran out of money. They just left it. … It’s an eyesore,’ he said. ‘There are abandoned projects and half-finished buildings all over.’”

“As of last week, there were 668 buildings on the stalled-site list - 306 of them in Brooklyn.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “As the economy plods along, more and more Cape Cod residents are moving out for the summer to live with relatives, lease cheaper apartments, or stay in campers so they can rent their homes. In Harwich alone, the number of properties listed with New England Vacation Rentals Inc. has increased to 400 from 150 in the past few years, said managing director Joanne Logie, who attributes the rise to the economic downturn, even though homeowners don’t always want to acknowledge they are struggling.”

“‘They’re kind of embarrassed,’ Logie said. ‘They’ll say, ‘We’re going to Europe for the summer,’ but you know they’re not going to Europe.’”

The Portland Press Herald in Maine. “Stefan Keenan has been auctioning off foreclosed properties for more than 25 years, and he thinks that right now, there are definitely some bargains out there. But he’s also quick to caution that buying a foreclosed property is not for everyone. It often involves more risk and a lot more research and homework than buying other properties.”

“One important thing to keep in mind, said Chris Pinkham, president of the Maine Bankers Association, is that a foreclosed property may be assessed at a very low value by a town — especially if it’s abandoned or in poor condition — but its selling price at auction will probably be a lot closer to what comparable properties have sold for. ‘And right now, that’s a moving target,’ said Pinkham.”

“Another important aspect of buying a foreclosure is the home inspection. While most home inspections are pretty routine, the inspection of a foreclosed property may find all sorts of problems with the property. ‘One bank had a property where the residents had taken the trim from the home and burned it in the wood stove for heat,’ said Pinkham.”

The Bangor Daily News in Maine. “Home and rental unit vacancy rates buried in data released recently by the U.S. Census Bureau show what real estate agents and property managers are seeing on a day-to-day basis: increasing numbers of empty homes, fewer buyers and renters, and dropping prices. ‘Prices are down, plain and simple,’ said David Caliendo, a broker who specializes in distressed and foreclosed properties. ‘There’s less demand for housing, fewer people who are out there buying, and more people who are holding off buying. Everyone’s looking for a bargain price right now.’”

New Hampshire Public Radio. “The New Hampshire Association of Realtors blames the home buyer tax credits of a year ago for the lackluster numbers today. About 800 properties changed hands this April. That’s one fifth lower than in 2010, and the median price is nearly 9% less. Kevin Bartlett, a resource economist with Real Data, a real estate tracking company, says the deeper problem is the number of homes changing hands due to foreclosure or near-foreclosure situations.”

“Bartlett says overall, distressed property sales account for over a third of all transactions which drives down the price of homes. He says, ‘in some market areas, the only thing selling are the distressed properties that are selling well below what is called assessed value.’”

The Providence Journal in Rhode Island. “Rhode Island had 1.43 percent of its mortgage loans go into foreclosure in the first quarter, which placed the state in the top five for new foreclosure starts. An expert said Rhode Island’s high unemployment is to blame. Rhode Island has had a double-digit unemployment rate for 25 straight months; the rate dropped to 11 percent for March.”

“‘There is a correlation between unemployment and foreclosure,’ said Nicolas P. Retsinas, director emeritus of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies and a member of the real-estate faculty at Harvard Business School. ‘The people who lost their jobs yesterday are losing their houses today,’ he said.”

“The percentage of Rhode Island mortgage loans that were at least 90 days past due or in the foreclosure process was 8.45 percent, above the national average of 8.10 percent and New England’s rate of 7.06 percent.”

The Herald News in New Jersey. “The colonial for sale on Stasia Lane in Teaneck has what Realtor Julia Morrill calls ‘picture-perfect curb appeal.’ Listed at $259,000, the three-bedroom, two-bath home looks cheery and smart from the outside. But the interior does need a little work, she admits, including the kitchen, which some would lovingly label ‘vintage,’ and others would call ‘ancient.’”

“The seller recently accepted an offer from a family looking to purchase their first home, and the deal is in attorney review. The home is a prime example of what Realtors say is a trend toward homes in the $200,000 to $250,000 range. It’s a bright side of the housing price decline, especially for first-time buyers. Not only are there more options at that price point, there are sometimes diamonds in the rough or homes in a real gem of a town or neighborhood.”

“In 2010, there were about 800 sales in the $200,000 to $250,000 price range. Compare that to when the market was hot, say in 2007, when there were about 570 sales at that price. Last week on the New Jersey MLS website, there were 304 single-family homes listed in Bergen and Passaic counties in that ballpark.”

“In addition to the increased numbers, Realtor Bob Clarke with Re/Max in Tenafly said it’s interesting to note the kind of homes that are up for sale. ‘To find something a few years ago in that price range, it would have pretty much had to be a train wreck,’ Clarke said. Nowadays, he said, homes might need some work, but it’s not quite as bad as it once was. Clarke said he is showing a four-bedroom Cape Cod in Prospect Park, listed for $225,000. ‘You really wouldn’t have to do a lot of work on it,’ he said. ‘You could move right in.’”

“Many of the homes in that price range are short sales, or homes that are on the market for less than the mortgage amount, a deal that must be done with the bank’s consent. Realtor Ronald Aiosa in Pompton Plains, has two listings that are short sales, both at $200,000 and both on the market for about a month. Both homes are under contract. In Pompton Lakes, he has a four-bedroom, two-bath Cape Cod and in Ringwood he has a three-bedroom, one-bath colonial.”

“‘They both need a little bit of renovation work but it’s not ridiculous,’ he said. ‘You could probably go in there, and if you’re handy and do the work yourself, you could get away with about $25,000 in repairs and the house is great.’”

“In Teaneck the median sales price for 2010 was $360,000. According to New Jersey MLS, there are now 15 active listings between $200,000 and $250,000. In Closter the median sales price for 2010 was $535,000, but Realtor Maria Castro-Aversano has a short sale listing for $265,000. The home has two bedrooms and one bathroom on half an acre.”

“Realtors are convinced that the $200,000 home can be a sweet spot. Leo Pflieger, broker owner of Bergenfield Realty, referred to a listing he had at $233,900. The Colonial, which is not a short sale, has three bedrooms, two baths and first went on the market with a $25,000 higher price tag. Pflieger said the home had two offers in the first two weeks on the market, but those deals fell through due to problems with the prospective buyers’ financing.”

“‘If you can qualify for a mortgage,’ he said. ‘this is the perfect home to live the American dream of owning your own home’”

The Record in New Jersey. “Garage sales, which surged when the economy tanked in 2008, continue to boom. One measure of garage sale activity is Craigslist. A spokeswoman for the online network of free classifieds said the garage sale category has ‘doubled overall year to year’ during the economic downturn. The category remains strong for The Record and Herald News, too — nearly an entire page of garage sale ads this weekend, more than 200 in all.”

“Trying to stave off foreclosure, single mom Karen Simmons-Braswell of Teaneck held a series of well-publicized garage sales last summer. She put ‘every penny’ of the $8,831 in earnings toward her mortgage. Nine months later, Simmons-Braswell is still in her house and still trying to work out a loan modification with her lender. The money from the garage sales bought her valuable time.”

“‘It wasn’t the final answer but it did help,’ said Simmons-Braswell, who had received many items donated from well-wishers. ‘Some people might find it not really worth the effort. You’re sitting out there, it’s hot, you have to advertise and put up signs. But $8,800 was a good amount. It meant a lot.’”

“Average Bay State foreclosure: 463 days and counting. That is the average length of time it takes for banks to seize your home if you live here in Massachusetts, according to RealtyTrac. Back in more normal times, the bank would get wrest back the title to your home in a matter of six months or so if you fell behind on your payments. That is still the case in many small states, but it is not so anymore in big government states like Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey, which have thrown up an array of regulations designed to slow the process down.”

“In fact, in states where the courts have power to intercede, homeowners who fall behind on their mortgages or simply stop paying can spend years living in their home, albeit under the constant threat of foreclosure. In both New York and New Jersey, the average foreclosure now takes more than 2 ½ years from start to finish.”

“At current sales rate, it would take three years to find buyers for the estimated 872,000 empty homes banks across the country are sitting on right now, the The New York Times reports.”


View the original article here

Friday, May 20, 2011

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Commercial Cataclysm!: Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index November 2010

The latest release of the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Index showed another notable monthly increase of 0.6% since October suggesting that the nation’s commercial property markets are continuing to slump through a tremendous downturn that has seen prices down some 38.54% since the peak set in October 2007.

It's important to note that while the commercial property markets have seen significant downward price movement, the latest data-point marks the third consecutive year-over-year gain.

The Moody’s/REAL CPPI data series is produced by the MIT/CRE but is noted to be “complimentary” to their alternative transaction based index (TBI) as it is published monthly and is formulated from a completely different dataset supplied by Real Capital Analytics, Inc and Real Estate Analytics LLC.

Labels: CRE, economy

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Monday, February 21, 2011

[The Alarmist] Calls For Price Spike Left Out Supply, Demand Part

Last weekend there was a widely talked about article in the Sunday NYT called “Why Your Next Place May Cost More” that covered the recent plunge in building permits.

The experts quoted in the NYT article all seemed to exude an alarmist tone that prices were going to jump next year because no significant new product was being built but they completely disregarded product that has not been sold yet or the limited financing available to consumers to spur demand. In other words, permits dropped because demand is limited. Its not some sort of random event. If there was a shortage in a year as suggested by the experts, then permits would explode starting right now.


[click to expand]

Here’s the theme of the NYT piece.

“But starting in 2012, after most or all the new projects that were stalled or delayed have finally sold out, the supply of new apartments will take a decided dip, and prices for all apartments could start to rise significantly again.”

Here are a few of the quotes in the piece.

“We tend to go through these cycles where, when you finally come out of a recession, there’s a shortage of inventory,” said Gregory J. Heym, the chief economist for Halstead Property and Brown Harris Stevens. “You usually expect the slowdown to come over a couple years, but this was like slamming on the brakes. So to start up again may take awhile.”

Actually its just the opposite. For example, it took 7 years to unwind the inventory in the 1989 housing crash until 1996. Inventory was bloated in 1992 through 1995 – prices were soft and there was very limited new development. The recession ended 5 years earlier in 1991. After the 2001 recession inventory increased for another 2 years and only peaked because of the onset of the biggest global credit bubble in history.

Gary Barnett, the president of Extell Development and one of the few developers who continued building through the downturn, said the lack of inventory was more pronounced now than in previous recessions. “In the early 1990s,” he said, “there was a big overhang of things that had been built in the late ’80s, but when things stopped this time, it just fell off a cliff.”

The number of building permits “didn’t go from 10,000 to 6,000,” he added, “it went from 10,000 to nothing. So we don’t have the overhang and no big inventory to work through. That’s why the market recovered much more quickly than people expected.”

Not exactly. Permits fell below 500 in 1992 (373) and 1994 (428) after the 1990-1991 recession and didn’t return to “normal” levels for 5 more years.

However housing prices didn’t rise for another 8 years after the end of the 1990-91 recession.


[click to expand]

While I agree its a very dramatic drop in permits but permits don’t necessarily correlate with what gets built. I also don’t see us in this predicament forever. Actually the permit filing drop is the much needed visual for the credit crunch. Its not a sign of shortage, its a sign of surplus.

Why file an application for a building permit if commercial lenders aren’t financing new condo development in any meaningful numbers? Why? Because lenders see shadow inventory (they are holding it); they see high unemployment (even though NYC is improving); they see individual buyers unable to get financing in new development in large numbers to create the demand needed to absorb yet new condo construction. As I said before – if it were so obvious that prices would spike in 12 months and there would be a chronic housing shortage of new development, don’t you think permits would explode right now?

Here’s a contrarian piece that was provided by the NY Observer my Matt Chaban: We’re Running Out of Apartments! (Well, Maybe Not)

If commercial banks aren’t willing to lend now, and it takes at least 2.5 years to get a project online, even if current unemployment, shadow inventory and the ongoing credit crunch were ignored, then it would be 2014 before we see meaningful new construction volume.

Or am I using the wrong equation? Help me understand, please.


View the original article here

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Don Imus Price Chops: Loose-tongued radio personality Dom Imus has...

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Sunday, January 16, 2011

Commercial Cataclysm!: Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index October 2010

The latest release of the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Index showed another notable monthly increase of 1.3% since September suggesting that the nation’s commercial property markets are continuing to slump through a tremendous downturn that has seen prices down some 42.18% since the peak set in October 2007.

It's important to note that while the commercial property markets have seen significant downward price movement, the latest data-point marks the second consecutive (albeit slight) year-over-year gain.

The Moody’s/REAL CPPI data series is produced by the MIT/CRE but is noted to be “complimentary” to their alternative transaction based index (TBI) as it is published monthly and is formulated from a completely different dataset supplied by Real Capital Analytics, Inc and Real Estate Analytics LLC.

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

[Freddie Mac] Payment Calculator Now Allows For Price Declines

I sent out a twitter post on this last night, but I was so overwhelmed with a sense of irony (or desperate to quench my thirst after that the dry muffin I had for breakfast) that I felt the need to include it here via my morning commuter train ride.

NPR/@planetmoney had a short piece on our burning housing question: Rent Or Buy? Freddie Finally Fixes Calculator.

Until now, the calculator had a fundamental (and revealing) flaw: It assumed home prices could never fall.

The economist who used to work at Freddie Mac, apologized saying:

“I’m sorry that I didn’t send an e-mail or work a little harder to get that fixed so the calculator can allow for the possibility of reality,”

Now apparently, it does…proving once again that it is the little details in life that keep us entertained.

Check it out.


View the original article here

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

U.S. vs Canadian Housing Price Mashup!: September 2010

Teranet/National Bank of Canada produces a complete line of Canadian home prices indices using the same repeat sale methodology as the S&P/Case-Shiller allowing for an interesting comparison against home prices here in the US.

Mashing-up the Teranet/NBC Composite-6 index to the S&P/CSI Composite-10 both rebased to the year 1999 provides a pretty decent “apples-apples” comparison as both the Teranet/NBC Composite-6 and S&P/CSI Composite-10 share the purpose of narrowly including just the top largest metros for their respective country.

Looking at the chart (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that while the Teranet/NBC index is currently showing a pretty exceptional rebound with annual percentage increases of nearly 7.86%, it still has a ways to go in order to match the pre-bust US levels.

Further, both series are showing a notable slowdown to price appreciation on a year-over-year basis.

Browse the full catalog of Canadian home price indices provided by Teranet/National Bank of Canada.

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