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Showing posts with label Decline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decline. Show all posts

Sunday, February 19, 2012

The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 13, 2012, 6:00 AM
12 Comments

There was a 21.2% decline in listing inventory from December 2010 to December 2011.

Relying on typical housing market scenarios and reasonable logic, a decline in listing inventory nearly always meant a tightening market was developing – fewer houses coming on line matched against steady demand meant housing prices were more likely to stabilize or rise.

Declining inventory is the variable in the housing equation that usually makes conditions improve. During the mid-decade housing boom, falling inventory was caused by the insatiable demand by buyers – product could not get out to the market fastest enough. Listing inventory was simply “worked off” by (artificially) inflated demand. Listing discounts approached zero, days on market fell to record lows and prices rose rapidly.

Old scenario: Declining Listing Inventory = declining housing prices ease their decline, prices stabilize or prices rise.

However over the last year, listing inventory fell sharply in many markets yet sales were generally anemic or showing nominal increases. In the NAR numbers, non-seasonally adjusted sales were up 1.4% year over year (using NSA since inventory is also NSA) yet inventory was down 21.2%. Inventory was clearly not declining because sales were overpowering the amount of listing inventory that was available.

Then why is inventory declining?

The answer to this question was not considered in the recent prediction of a market bottom.

New scenario: Declining Listing Inventory = fall in seller confidence and the sharp decline in distressed inventory entering the market.

From NAR…

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 9.2 percent to 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.2-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 7.2-month supply in November.

“The inventory supply suggests many markets will see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future,” Yun said. – National Association of Realtors

We are seeing unusual declines in many markets I keep tabs on such as:

Admittedly I am cherry picking some of the cities that are posting huge declines in inventory. However the problem I find in all of these markets, is that sales are only increasing a few percentage points. Not nearly enough to explain the rapid decline.

The drops are being touted as a good sign that housing is getting back on its feet. I’m not so sure.

I think the sharp drop in many US housing markets (and this has been happening for much of 2011) has to do with three key reasons:

A large swath of foreclosure volume was artificially delayed.Seller confidence has waned after the pounding it took last fall.Low interest rates extended by the Fed for the next two years have removed any sense of urgency.

Declining foreclosure volume is one of the key reason inventory levels are dropping. The 1/3 decline in foreclosure volume in 2011 has resulted in a sharp drop in foreclosure inventory resulting in a sharp drop in total inventory. Distressed sales have been running at about 30% of total sales nationally for a few years but fell to about 20% in 2011. With a 2 million more homes expected to go into foreclosure over the next 2 years, a year long internal review of procedure after the 2010 “robo-signing” scandal and the 50 State AG settlement with the largest services/banks, distressed inventory is expected to rise sharply over the next several years.

Weak seller confidence is causing property not to be released into the market unless the need to sell is not optional. The 2011 home seller and buyer was bashed with the debt ceiling debate, the S&P downgrade of US debt, 400 point daily swings in the financial markets, the European debt crisis, the AG/Service settlement drama and the political stalemate on housing policy in Washington. What do people do when faced with the unknown? They sit and wait. Buyers had a lot more incentive to act with falling mortgage rates to record levels but mortgage underwriting grew tighter over the year as well.

The extension of the low interest rate policy by the Fed through the end of 2014 has obliterated any sense of urgency by sellers. I am getting a lot of feedback from real estate professionals about this as well as seeing it within my own appraisal practice. There is a lot going on the world right now and the action by the Fed suggested that they weren’t particularly encouraged by the economy. To many this may seem as an incentive for sellers to get going and sell. But many of those sellers have to buy.

The drop in inventory as a phenomenon may or may not pass quickly but one thing is clear – weird changes in market behavior happen for a reason – I don’t see declining inventory as a particular sign of strength in the housing market.


View the original article here

Monday, December 26, 2011

Thursday, June 2, 2011

A Bright Side Of The Housing Price Decline

A report from the New York Daily News. “A rundown, half-finished Brooklyn condo untouched since the dog days of the financial crisis has neighbors fuming. The ramshackle site in Homecrest is the shame of the neighborhood - and just one of hundreds of buildings in the city where work has stalled over the past few years. ‘They can’t afford to work on that building anymore,’ said Irving Goldfarb who lives near the unfinished condo. ‘They ran out of money. They just left it. … It’s an eyesore,’ he said. ‘There are abandoned projects and half-finished buildings all over.’”

“As of last week, there were 668 buildings on the stalled-site list - 306 of them in Brooklyn.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “As the economy plods along, more and more Cape Cod residents are moving out for the summer to live with relatives, lease cheaper apartments, or stay in campers so they can rent their homes. In Harwich alone, the number of properties listed with New England Vacation Rentals Inc. has increased to 400 from 150 in the past few years, said managing director Joanne Logie, who attributes the rise to the economic downturn, even though homeowners don’t always want to acknowledge they are struggling.”

“‘They’re kind of embarrassed,’ Logie said. ‘They’ll say, ‘We’re going to Europe for the summer,’ but you know they’re not going to Europe.’”

The Portland Press Herald in Maine. “Stefan Keenan has been auctioning off foreclosed properties for more than 25 years, and he thinks that right now, there are definitely some bargains out there. But he’s also quick to caution that buying a foreclosed property is not for everyone. It often involves more risk and a lot more research and homework than buying other properties.”

“One important thing to keep in mind, said Chris Pinkham, president of the Maine Bankers Association, is that a foreclosed property may be assessed at a very low value by a town — especially if it’s abandoned or in poor condition — but its selling price at auction will probably be a lot closer to what comparable properties have sold for. ‘And right now, that’s a moving target,’ said Pinkham.”

“Another important aspect of buying a foreclosure is the home inspection. While most home inspections are pretty routine, the inspection of a foreclosed property may find all sorts of problems with the property. ‘One bank had a property where the residents had taken the trim from the home and burned it in the wood stove for heat,’ said Pinkham.”

The Bangor Daily News in Maine. “Home and rental unit vacancy rates buried in data released recently by the U.S. Census Bureau show what real estate agents and property managers are seeing on a day-to-day basis: increasing numbers of empty homes, fewer buyers and renters, and dropping prices. ‘Prices are down, plain and simple,’ said David Caliendo, a broker who specializes in distressed and foreclosed properties. ‘There’s less demand for housing, fewer people who are out there buying, and more people who are holding off buying. Everyone’s looking for a bargain price right now.’”

New Hampshire Public Radio. “The New Hampshire Association of Realtors blames the home buyer tax credits of a year ago for the lackluster numbers today. About 800 properties changed hands this April. That’s one fifth lower than in 2010, and the median price is nearly 9% less. Kevin Bartlett, a resource economist with Real Data, a real estate tracking company, says the deeper problem is the number of homes changing hands due to foreclosure or near-foreclosure situations.”

“Bartlett says overall, distressed property sales account for over a third of all transactions which drives down the price of homes. He says, ‘in some market areas, the only thing selling are the distressed properties that are selling well below what is called assessed value.’”

The Providence Journal in Rhode Island. “Rhode Island had 1.43 percent of its mortgage loans go into foreclosure in the first quarter, which placed the state in the top five for new foreclosure starts. An expert said Rhode Island’s high unemployment is to blame. Rhode Island has had a double-digit unemployment rate for 25 straight months; the rate dropped to 11 percent for March.”

“‘There is a correlation between unemployment and foreclosure,’ said Nicolas P. Retsinas, director emeritus of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies and a member of the real-estate faculty at Harvard Business School. ‘The people who lost their jobs yesterday are losing their houses today,’ he said.”

“The percentage of Rhode Island mortgage loans that were at least 90 days past due or in the foreclosure process was 8.45 percent, above the national average of 8.10 percent and New England’s rate of 7.06 percent.”

The Herald News in New Jersey. “The colonial for sale on Stasia Lane in Teaneck has what Realtor Julia Morrill calls ‘picture-perfect curb appeal.’ Listed at $259,000, the three-bedroom, two-bath home looks cheery and smart from the outside. But the interior does need a little work, she admits, including the kitchen, which some would lovingly label ‘vintage,’ and others would call ‘ancient.’”

“The seller recently accepted an offer from a family looking to purchase their first home, and the deal is in attorney review. The home is a prime example of what Realtors say is a trend toward homes in the $200,000 to $250,000 range. It’s a bright side of the housing price decline, especially for first-time buyers. Not only are there more options at that price point, there are sometimes diamonds in the rough or homes in a real gem of a town or neighborhood.”

“In 2010, there were about 800 sales in the $200,000 to $250,000 price range. Compare that to when the market was hot, say in 2007, when there were about 570 sales at that price. Last week on the New Jersey MLS website, there were 304 single-family homes listed in Bergen and Passaic counties in that ballpark.”

“In addition to the increased numbers, Realtor Bob Clarke with Re/Max in Tenafly said it’s interesting to note the kind of homes that are up for sale. ‘To find something a few years ago in that price range, it would have pretty much had to be a train wreck,’ Clarke said. Nowadays, he said, homes might need some work, but it’s not quite as bad as it once was. Clarke said he is showing a four-bedroom Cape Cod in Prospect Park, listed for $225,000. ‘You really wouldn’t have to do a lot of work on it,’ he said. ‘You could move right in.’”

“Many of the homes in that price range are short sales, or homes that are on the market for less than the mortgage amount, a deal that must be done with the bank’s consent. Realtor Ronald Aiosa in Pompton Plains, has two listings that are short sales, both at $200,000 and both on the market for about a month. Both homes are under contract. In Pompton Lakes, he has a four-bedroom, two-bath Cape Cod and in Ringwood he has a three-bedroom, one-bath colonial.”

“‘They both need a little bit of renovation work but it’s not ridiculous,’ he said. ‘You could probably go in there, and if you’re handy and do the work yourself, you could get away with about $25,000 in repairs and the house is great.’”

“In Teaneck the median sales price for 2010 was $360,000. According to New Jersey MLS, there are now 15 active listings between $200,000 and $250,000. In Closter the median sales price for 2010 was $535,000, but Realtor Maria Castro-Aversano has a short sale listing for $265,000. The home has two bedrooms and one bathroom on half an acre.”

“Realtors are convinced that the $200,000 home can be a sweet spot. Leo Pflieger, broker owner of Bergenfield Realty, referred to a listing he had at $233,900. The Colonial, which is not a short sale, has three bedrooms, two baths and first went on the market with a $25,000 higher price tag. Pflieger said the home had two offers in the first two weeks on the market, but those deals fell through due to problems with the prospective buyers’ financing.”

“‘If you can qualify for a mortgage,’ he said. ‘this is the perfect home to live the American dream of owning your own home’”

The Record in New Jersey. “Garage sales, which surged when the economy tanked in 2008, continue to boom. One measure of garage sale activity is Craigslist. A spokeswoman for the online network of free classifieds said the garage sale category has ‘doubled overall year to year’ during the economic downturn. The category remains strong for The Record and Herald News, too — nearly an entire page of garage sale ads this weekend, more than 200 in all.”

“Trying to stave off foreclosure, single mom Karen Simmons-Braswell of Teaneck held a series of well-publicized garage sales last summer. She put ‘every penny’ of the $8,831 in earnings toward her mortgage. Nine months later, Simmons-Braswell is still in her house and still trying to work out a loan modification with her lender. The money from the garage sales bought her valuable time.”

“‘It wasn’t the final answer but it did help,’ said Simmons-Braswell, who had received many items donated from well-wishers. ‘Some people might find it not really worth the effort. You’re sitting out there, it’s hot, you have to advertise and put up signs. But $8,800 was a good amount. It meant a lot.’”

“Average Bay State foreclosure: 463 days and counting. That is the average length of time it takes for banks to seize your home if you live here in Massachusetts, according to RealtyTrac. Back in more normal times, the bank would get wrest back the title to your home in a matter of six months or so if you fell behind on your payments. That is still the case in many small states, but it is not so anymore in big government states like Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey, which have thrown up an array of regulations designed to slow the process down.”

“In fact, in states where the courts have power to intercede, homeowners who fall behind on their mortgages or simply stop paying can spend years living in their home, albeit under the constant threat of foreclosure. In both New York and New Jersey, the average foreclosure now takes more than 2 ½ years from start to finish.”

“At current sales rate, it would take three years to find buyers for the estimated 872,000 empty homes banks across the country are sitting on right now, the The New York Times reports.”


View the original article here

Monday, April 11, 2011

And the Housing Decline Slumps On…

NOTE… Be sure to bookmark the Scary Housing Dashboard for a real-time view of all the housing markets discussed in this post.

With interested industry groups and Bullish stock analysts talking up the notion of a “housing recovery” it may come as a surprise to learn that eleven (over half) of the markets tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices indices are now setting fresh new lows.

With price declines continuing and, in most of these eleven markets, actually declining at a progressively faster rate, it should come as no wonder that homebuilder sentiment and new and existing home sales remain historically weak.

Atlanta takes the number one position as the market with seasonally adjusted prices declining at the fastest rate dropping -7.91% annually with Chicago coming in second at a -7.61% decline, Detroit at a -7.11% decline, Portland at -6.97%, Phoenix at -6.42%, Seattle at -4.74%, Charlotte North Carolina at -4.25%, Tampa at -4.01%, Miami at -3.58%, Las Vegas at -3.53% and finally New York at -1.66%.

Further, it’s important to note that as of the latest data-point, Detroit has seen over 15 years of house price appreciation literally wiped out by the current collapse leaving prices at the same level seen in mid 1994 while both Atlanta and Phoenix prices have fallen back over 10 years to the level of late 1999.

Phoenix has backed up to early 2000, Chicago is back to early 2002, Tampa and Miami are back to early 2003, New York is back to early 2004, Charlotte is back to late 2004 and Portland and Seattle are back to early 2005.

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Sunday, December 26, 2010

99ers and the Continual Decline

Reading through the comments trailing this article and posted at this website it is nearly impossible not to feel concerned for the plight of the millions of long term unemployed that appear to be sinking deeper with each passing day.

Worse yet, the economy is not going to be able to absorb these folks any time soon as historically weak hiring and the tarnish of multiple years of unemployment work to morph these poor souls from productive workers into a class of downtrodden and financially wrecked individuals with defunct skills.

Yet, what really is the obligation of the federal and state governments to mitigate the pain associated to the adjustments taking place in our macro-economy?

With the latest unemployment extension costing over $85 billion for just thirteen more months of long term benefits (excluding those that have exhausted their benefits at 99 weeks… the 99ers), the roughly $70 billion the feds dole out for food-stamps, and the hundreds of billions spent on all the other “safety net” policies, the government and the public needs to face a harsh truth.

With a downshifting economy, greater competition from emerging economies and the demographic nightmare of boomer retirement, hard choices will have to be made concerning the plight of those that will inevitably slide back down the wealth scale.

Is the role of government to artificially prop the gains made by generations of the middle class even when the trends have turned against them? ... even when the steps taken to lessen the pain are just temporary and inevitably hopeless?

The “99ers” provide a clear insight into this dilemma.

Those that have been unemployed for 99 weeks or longer are effectively in critical condition desperately hanging on for some sign of the return of their prior healthy self.

But sadly for many (maybe most) the future only holds a deeper despair as many face the prospect of significant career and lifestyle demotions, dashed plans and disappointments.

Any further assistance might bide some time, but as the macro-trends turn further against a generation, no amount of subsidies will bring back the past. Labels: ,

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View the original article here