Monday, February 13, 2012
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Boosting Prices So The True Economic Recovery Can Begin
Readers suggested a topic on the latest revelations and proposals from the central bank. “Is it perhaps really true that ‘Nobody could have seen it coming’? It isn’t as though an army of gadflies didn’t try to warn the Fed about where things were headed.’ ‘Newly released transcripts of Fed meetings during Bernanke’s first year as chairman show that, among Fed officials, he often expressed the most concern about housing. But no official, according to the transcripts, recognized the extent of the damage a housing bubble would cause. A year later, the housing market’s collapse helped send the nation into its worst recession since the Great Depression.”
“In September 2006, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, then a Fed official, expressed confidence that ‘collateral damage’ from housing could be avoided.”
A reply, “As long as the banksters have limitless QE to ward off a financial reckoning day for their fraud, hubris and avarice, Timmay’s assertion that collateral damage (for his bankster accomplices) can be averted is largely true. As far as taxpayers, savers, and our children, that’s another story entirely.”
Another added, “This to me is the saddest part of the whole story. When the bust is finally allowed to run its course, most in the populace will be unable to connect the dots. Due to the time lag in reaction to the original actions that brought us here, the current President, Congress, business and civic leaders at that point in time will be blamed and probably demonized. Some maybe even physically threatened as the true architects of this mess slink away scott-free to some Brazilian ranch to ride out any visceral reaction.”
To which was was said, “That is the game. Since you are from NY, note that we have not yet begun to pay for the retroactive public employee pension enhancements of 2000. Neither the unions nor the state legislature want any connection between that deal and rising taxes/service cuts.”
“Moreover, many CEOs who leveraged up in the 1990s were lionized, whereas those dealing with the fallout ever since are considered failures who are overpaid. The reality is they were overpaid in the 1990s, too.”
Another, “I think you are right, except that we are in busting mode and those in office are very reluctant to shatter the illusion. It’s a choice between villified now and revered later or celebrated now and vilified later.”
“Our last President impulsively said ‘This sukker’s going down’ and then his lips were sewn shut. Most people wanted to believe that the nasty bailouts would really save our sorry behinds. Isn’t working out that way. The Pres we have now just smiles and reads from the promtor. I was hoping he would go all JFK. Hasn’t happened.”
One had this, “The very fact that Bernanke was paraded around as an expert on the Great Depression, just before the collapse tells you they knew everything. The fact that Hank Paulson took the job as treasury secretary so he could cash out at the top tax free saving 200 million dollars so he could move into treasuries just before the crash tells you they knew everything that was coming. One look at where they invested would tell you if they knew what was coming.”
And finally, “Is the Fed’s White Paper proposal to use taxpayer-funded GSE losses to revitalize the housing markets merely a ploy intended to further enrich Goldman Sachs? Massive injections of printing press money could work wonders to revitalize the value of shi#@y mortgage assets.”
The Wall Street Journal. “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recently approached the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and offered to buy a multibillion-dollar bundle of risky mortgage bonds that the Fed acquired in the 2008 bailout of American International Group Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.”
“The New York Fed responded by quietly canvassing a few securities dealers for bids on the bonds Goldman wanted to purchase, seeking competing offers to determine whether Goldman’s offer represented the best value for the bonds, the people said.”
The Sun Times. “When Charles L. Evans talks, people listen. The president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago recently spoke to about 200 business leaders at a presentation sponsored by the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club. They came to hear his personal perspectives on the current economy — and one of the topics was housing. Evans said that a more vibrant housing market is one of the key improvements needed to boost home prices and lift the overall economy.”
“He further noted that the Fed had recently been criticized by some Congressional leaders for issuing a special white paper on housing issues, which also suggested potential policy solutions. Whether perceived as contentious or not, Evans felt the paper focused needed attention on solving the distress sale crisis and improving valuations so that true economic recovery could begin.
“The National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors strongly agree with Evans and other Federal Reserve leaders, too. Both NAHB and NAR endorse specific recommendations in the above-noted white paper — such as loosening mortgage lending and refinancing criteria for credit-worthy borrowers.”
“The overall message is clear. Federal Reserve leaders know it, as do builders and Realtors. Much more must be done to solve the housing crisis — even if those solutions prove politically unpopular. ”
“By Julie Morse, a licensed Realtor in Illinois and Wisconsin.”
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover November 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover October 2011
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover August 2011
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover July 2011
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
GDP Charade Just More Fake it Till You Make it Economic Policy
Monday, August 8, 2011
The Solution To Our Economic Problems
Readers suggested a topic on the housing market implications of the debt talks. “What are the housing market implications of slow growth coupled with a likely near-term reduction in federal expenditures in the wake of the debt ceiling negotiations? I still maintain the way out of this without raising taxes is to let housing prices go where the market dictates. Once home prices are sufficiently affordable, the U.S. labor force will adjust as young, capable workers go where their best opportunities lie. So long as housing prices are propped up on an unaffordably high plateau, this autonomous (self-funding) economic stimulus cannot happen.”
“I’m thinking there is a potential silver lining to the partisan wrangling over the debt ceiling, which is that the housing market is likely to crash faster than ever over the next twelve or so months.”
A reply, “This grand national theater is being played to the same script that small towns always use during budget talks….If we don’t get more money we will close the fire-hall and your children will…well something awful will happen to your children. We’re serious!”
One said, “The question is, would a second Great Depression and a huge cut in public benefits for people today be the worst scenario? Or would we be better off if it occurred and this was followed by a gradual recovery? The alternative may be those under 55 later having it as bad or worse than anybody would have it now if the collapse occurs, with higher debt levels.”
One asked, “What would REALLY happen if they eliminated or significantly changed the mortgage interest deduction?”
A reply, “There’s no reason taxpayers should be subsidizing any home loans…. let alone loans up to $1,000,000!!!”
One added, “The all-or-nothing mindset is hard to shake. It took 3-4 years before the sheeple realize that it’s possible to ‘raise taxes’ without raising taxes on everybody. It will take another 3-4 years for them to figure out that it’s possible to ‘eliminate the MID’ for some houses and not others or to institute an upper limit, or to understand what ‘MID will be less than the standard deduction anyway’ means.”
A reply, “It’s naive to think that the mortgage interest deduction (MID) will be entirely eliminated. If the MID is targeted, then I surmise that a more moderate formula would come to pass. My guess is that the MID would still be available for primary owner-occupied homes and capped at the median home value. Whether or not the median home value would be based on national or local median values (think San Francisco vs. Oil City) would have to be worked out.”
“One idea for discussion: MID only for the primary owner-occupied home up to the Fannie/Freddie $417k max.”
“A large number of politicians and business people who think that the solution to our economic problems is getting house prices to start going back up, instead of the belief around here that the problem is that house prices rose too high during the bubble. The combination means that eliminating the MID is pretty much a non-starter.”
To which was said, “Most other countries, including our culturally similar neighbor to the north, manage to do fine without a MID. Aside from the lobbying of entrenched interests, why is it naive to expect that we could completely eliminate ours? We managed to eliminate the credit card interest deduction in the 1980s.”
Finally, “If they eliminated the mortgage interest deduction, one ‘advantage’ of paying mortgages would be eliminated. This would mean less demand for housing. Lower demand would encourage house prices to drop. Therefore if they eliminated the mortgage interest deduction, house prices would fall. The mortgage interest deduction is nothing other than social engineering to subsidize housing.”
The Associated Press. “A new bipartisan plan to reduce government borrowing would target some of the most cherished tax breaks enjoyed by millions of families; those promoting health insurance, home ownership, charitable giving and retirement savings; in exchange for lowering overall tax rates for everyone.”
“Democrats have several proposals that would restrict wealthy families’ use of the breaks, while preserving them for most low- and middle-income taxpayers. Such a plan would offset rate cuts for high-income families by limiting their ability to take advantage of various tax breaks. For example, current law allows homeowners to deduct the interest they pay on home mortgages of up to $1 million. One proposal would lower the limit to $500,000 and exclude mortgage interest on second homes.”
“Lawmakers have proposed limiting the mortgage interest deduction as part of an agreement to raise the government’s borrowing limit to avoid a default after the Aug. 2 deadline. But that isn’t the only concern for homeowners and prospective buyers as the negotiations heat up in Washington. Even if lawmakers strike a deal by next week’s deadline, there’s still a chance the government’s credit rating could be downgraded. That raises the prospect of higher mortgage rates, meaning those who’ve been holding tight for home prices to fall further may feel that time is running out to take advantage of low rates.”
“Here’s what you should know: What will happen to mortgage terms if the government defaults on its debt? Some borrowers could find it more difficult to get approved for a mortgage. This might happen if banks become more cautious and slow their lending to each other, as they did during the height of the economic collapse in 2008, notes Greg McBride, a senior analyst with Bankrate.com.”
“‘Any increase on Uncle Sam’s borrowing would translate to higher costs for consumers,’ McBride said.”
The Oregonian. “Q: I work in the state of Wyoming where there is no state income tax however I own a home in Arizona. My drivers license was required to be changed to Wyoming for state law purposes but here’s the question: can I still deduct the interest on my home in Arizona if I work in Wyoming and does the state of Arizona expect AZ state income taxes to be paid?”
“A: I can only address federal income tax issues since I am not trained in state income tax law. I suggest that you contact the Arizona Department of Revenue for information on any state income tax obligations you may have.”
“Under federal tax law you can usually deduct qualifying mortgage interest on your main home and a second home. It is possible that you would be able to deduct the mortgage interest on your home in Arizona as paid on your second home (your main home being the one you live in most of the time).”
Thursday, June 30, 2011
[CFR] Not Slowest Economic Recovery, Yet Housing Is – So Deal With It
The Council on Foreign Relations published their quarterly update from the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, always a good resource, called: The Economic Recovery in Historical Context. The charts look at various metrics since the end of each recession. FYI, the recession was dubbed “over” in June 2009.
GDP is growing, but below the average post-war pace but not slower than the 1980-81 double dip.
Housing continues to fall – it is well below both the average and low end of the post-war range. Of course that’s because housing/credit was the cause of the crash itself.
It’s hard to see the economy moving forward appreciably until housing improves or at least it’s being more consistent with historic norms during an economic recovery. I like these graphics because they provide tangible perspective to the state of the economy and housing.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
An Overview on Calgary Real Estate Economic Conditions
The correction in the housing market, fall in interest rates and growth in house hold income has brought the affordability of Calgary homes better than ever before. However, the degree of housing affordability has improved far better than the 1980's cycle. The present growth is found to be similar with that of early 1990's real estate cycle. Record lows are spotted as another important reason for the increase in affordability and still further lowering is expected. Calgary agents instruct people to budget for higher interest rates to stay away from excessive risks. Speaking about the market, there are three individual yet connected types of real estate markets are available. They are Rental Market, Resale Market and the Construction Market.
One of the intelligent ways to evaluate your assets is just by comparing them with safe investments. However, Government bonds are considered to be the safest investments but at the same time real estate investments also have got some significant advantages over the bonds. One of the best features of real estate investments is the growth of dividend and appreciation of the asset value with time. The new house price index for Calgary is showing a steady rise since 2008 whereas the resale market conditions were not so smooth but however, showed peak positive results in 2007. Looking on to the current trends of market conditions, the Calgary realtors say that they are experiencing a decline every year which is about 1.6% from the year of 2008. Also the single family home prices dropped up to 44%. But there was a considerable rise in the sales of high end houses for sale in Calgary.
Generally low employment and high inflation rates are two factors that support real estate growth. Looking back the history the market, during the period of 1973-1983 there was a steep rise in home prices only because of the two factors mentioned above which Unemployment and Inflation were. However, things changed after 1983 when the unemployment rate cooled off significantly to lower rates which lead to the fall in home prices. If we take the period of 2005-2006 into consideration, a ratio of 50% sales to new listings ratio kept prices in balance. The current Calgary market conditions reports, an approximate value of 3.6% unemployment rate and an inflation rate of about 4.3% and undoubtedly, these two are spotted as the main reasons for the conservative optimism prevailing in the current Calgary real estate market.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Constructing Economic Anemia: December 2010
It appears that construction production from plywood to carpeting to paving and roofing and glass supplies are all experiencing anemic trends.
The plywood, carpeting and furniture series appear to mirror exactly the trends seen in the housing market with the temporary tick up occurring in the face of the government's housing tax scam now giving way to a clear resumption of the preceding decline.
Labels: economy, housing collapse, industrial production
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Monday, December 20, 2010
[The Housing Helix Podcast] Gary Shilling, Economic Consultant, Founder, A. Gary Shilling & Co., Author, The Age of Deleveraging
For years I’ve watched Gary Shilling’s media interviews on the economy and read his columns in Forbes. I ran into him recently when we were both on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt and invited him to sit down with me and have a conversation about housing. He runs his epomonyous economic consulting firm and published a widely read newsletter called INSIGHTS.
Gary’s latest book was just released called “The Age of Deleveraging” which resides on my iPad (via Kindle app). We have an engaging discussion even though we don’t touch on his other passion, bee keeping.
Check out the podcast.
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.