Readers suggested a topic on the housing market implications of the debt talks. “What are the housing market implications of slow growth coupled with a likely near-term reduction in federal expenditures in the wake of the debt ceiling negotiations? I still maintain the way out of this without raising taxes is to let housing prices go where the market dictates. Once home prices are sufficiently affordable, the U.S. labor force will adjust as young, capable workers go where their best opportunities lie. So long as housing prices are propped up on an unaffordably high plateau, this autonomous (self-funding) economic stimulus cannot happen.”
“I’m thinking there is a potential silver lining to the partisan wrangling over the debt ceiling, which is that the housing market is likely to crash faster than ever over the next twelve or so months.”
A reply, “This grand national theater is being played to the same script that small towns always use during budget talks….If we don’t get more money we will close the fire-hall and your children will…well something awful will happen to your children. We’re serious!”
One said, “The question is, would a second Great Depression and a huge cut in public benefits for people today be the worst scenario? Or would we be better off if it occurred and this was followed by a gradual recovery? The alternative may be those under 55 later having it as bad or worse than anybody would have it now if the collapse occurs, with higher debt levels.”
One asked, “What would REALLY happen if they eliminated or significantly changed the mortgage interest deduction?”
A reply, “There’s no reason taxpayers should be subsidizing any home loans…. let alone loans up to $1,000,000!!!”
One added, “The all-or-nothing mindset is hard to shake. It took 3-4 years before the sheeple realize that it’s possible to ‘raise taxes’ without raising taxes on everybody. It will take another 3-4 years for them to figure out that it’s possible to ‘eliminate the MID’ for some houses and not others or to institute an upper limit, or to understand what ‘MID will be less than the standard deduction anyway’ means.”
A reply, “It’s naive to think that the mortgage interest deduction (MID) will be entirely eliminated. If the MID is targeted, then I surmise that a more moderate formula would come to pass. My guess is that the MID would still be available for primary owner-occupied homes and capped at the median home value. Whether or not the median home value would be based on national or local median values (think San Francisco vs. Oil City) would have to be worked out.”
“One idea for discussion: MID only for the primary owner-occupied home up to the Fannie/Freddie $417k max.”
“A large number of politicians and business people who think that the solution to our economic problems is getting house prices to start going back up, instead of the belief around here that the problem is that house prices rose too high during the bubble. The combination means that eliminating the MID is pretty much a non-starter.”
To which was said, “Most other countries, including our culturally similar neighbor to the north, manage to do fine without a MID. Aside from the lobbying of entrenched interests, why is it naive to expect that we could completely eliminate ours? We managed to eliminate the credit card interest deduction in the 1980s.”
Finally, “If they eliminated the mortgage interest deduction, one ‘advantage’ of paying mortgages would be eliminated. This would mean less demand for housing. Lower demand would encourage house prices to drop. Therefore if they eliminated the mortgage interest deduction, house prices would fall. The mortgage interest deduction is nothing other than social engineering to subsidize housing.”
The Associated Press. “A new bipartisan plan to reduce government borrowing would target some of the most cherished tax breaks enjoyed by millions of families; those promoting health insurance, home ownership, charitable giving and retirement savings; in exchange for lowering overall tax rates for everyone.”
“Democrats have several proposals that would restrict wealthy families’ use of the breaks, while preserving them for most low- and middle-income taxpayers. Such a plan would offset rate cuts for high-income families by limiting their ability to take advantage of various tax breaks. For example, current law allows homeowners to deduct the interest they pay on home mortgages of up to $1 million. One proposal would lower the limit to $500,000 and exclude mortgage interest on second homes.”
“Lawmakers have proposed limiting the mortgage interest deduction as part of an agreement to raise the government’s borrowing limit to avoid a default after the Aug. 2 deadline. But that isn’t the only concern for homeowners and prospective buyers as the negotiations heat up in Washington. Even if lawmakers strike a deal by next week’s deadline, there’s still a chance the government’s credit rating could be downgraded. That raises the prospect of higher mortgage rates, meaning those who’ve been holding tight for home prices to fall further may feel that time is running out to take advantage of low rates.”
“Here’s what you should know: What will happen to mortgage terms if the government defaults on its debt? Some borrowers could find it more difficult to get approved for a mortgage. This might happen if banks become more cautious and slow their lending to each other, as they did during the height of the economic collapse in 2008, notes Greg McBride, a senior analyst with Bankrate.com.”
“‘Any increase on Uncle Sam’s borrowing would translate to higher costs for consumers,’ McBride said.”
The Oregonian. “Q: I work in the state of Wyoming where there is no state income tax however I own a home in Arizona. My drivers license was required to be changed to Wyoming for state law purposes but here’s the question: can I still deduct the interest on my home in Arizona if I work in Wyoming and does the state of Arizona expect AZ state income taxes to be paid?”
“A: I can only address federal income tax issues since I am not trained in state income tax law. I suggest that you contact the Arizona Department of Revenue for information on any state income tax obligations you may have.”
“Under federal tax law you can usually deduct qualifying mortgage interest on your main home and a second home. It is possible that you would be able to deduct the mortgage interest on your home in Arizona as paid on your second home (your main home being the one you live in most of the time).”
