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Showing posts with label Begin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Begin. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Boosting Prices So The True Economic Recovery Can Begin

Readers suggested a topic on the latest revelations and proposals from the central bank. “Is it perhaps really true that ‘Nobody could have seen it coming’? It isn’t as though an army of gadflies didn’t try to warn the Fed about where things were headed.’ ‘Newly released transcripts of Fed meetings during Bernanke’s first year as chairman show that, among Fed officials, he often expressed the most concern about housing. But no official, according to the transcripts, recognized the extent of the damage a housing bubble would cause. A year later, the housing market’s collapse helped send the nation into its worst recession since the Great Depression.”

“In September 2006, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, then a Fed official, expressed confidence that ‘collateral damage’ from housing could be avoided.”

A reply, “As long as the banksters have limitless QE to ward off a financial reckoning day for their fraud, hubris and avarice, Timmay’s assertion that collateral damage (for his bankster accomplices) can be averted is largely true. As far as taxpayers, savers, and our children, that’s another story entirely.”

Another added, “This to me is the saddest part of the whole story. When the bust is finally allowed to run its course, most in the populace will be unable to connect the dots. Due to the time lag in reaction to the original actions that brought us here, the current President, Congress, business and civic leaders at that point in time will be blamed and probably demonized. Some maybe even physically threatened as the true architects of this mess slink away scott-free to some Brazilian ranch to ride out any visceral reaction.”

To which was was said, “That is the game. Since you are from NY, note that we have not yet begun to pay for the retroactive public employee pension enhancements of 2000. Neither the unions nor the state legislature want any connection between that deal and rising taxes/service cuts.”

“Moreover, many CEOs who leveraged up in the 1990s were lionized, whereas those dealing with the fallout ever since are considered failures who are overpaid. The reality is they were overpaid in the 1990s, too.”

Another, “I think you are right, except that we are in busting mode and those in office are very reluctant to shatter the illusion. It’s a choice between villified now and revered later or celebrated now and vilified later.”

“Our last President impulsively said ‘This sukker’s going down’ and then his lips were sewn shut. Most people wanted to believe that the nasty bailouts would really save our sorry behinds. Isn’t working out that way. The Pres we have now just smiles and reads from the promtor. I was hoping he would go all JFK. Hasn’t happened.”

One had this, “The very fact that Bernanke was paraded around as an expert on the Great Depression, just before the collapse tells you they knew everything. The fact that Hank Paulson took the job as treasury secretary so he could cash out at the top tax free saving 200 million dollars so he could move into treasuries just before the crash tells you they knew everything that was coming. One look at where they invested would tell you if they knew what was coming.”

And finally, “Is the Fed’s White Paper proposal to use taxpayer-funded GSE losses to revitalize the housing markets merely a ploy intended to further enrich Goldman Sachs? Massive injections of printing press money could work wonders to revitalize the value of shi#@y mortgage assets.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recently approached the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and offered to buy a multibillion-dollar bundle of risky mortgage bonds that the Fed acquired in the 2008 bailout of American International Group Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.”

“The New York Fed responded by quietly canvassing a few securities dealers for bids on the bonds Goldman wanted to purchase, seeking competing offers to determine whether Goldman’s offer represented the best value for the bonds, the people said.”

The Sun Times. “When Charles L. Evans talks, people listen. The president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago recently spoke to about 200 business leaders at a presentation sponsored by the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club. They came to hear his personal perspectives on the current economy — and one of the topics was housing. Evans said that a more vibrant housing market is one of the key improvements needed to boost home prices and lift the overall economy.”

“He further noted that the Fed had recently been criticized by some Congressional leaders for issuing a special white paper on housing issues, which also suggested potential policy solutions. Whether perceived as contentious or not, Evans felt the paper focused needed attention on solving the distress sale crisis and improving valuations so that true economic recovery could begin.

“The National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors strongly agree with Evans and other Federal Reserve leaders, too. Both NAHB and NAR endorse specific recommendations in the above-noted white paper — such as loosening mortgage lending and refinancing criteria for credit-worthy borrowers.”

“The overall message is clear. Federal Reserve leaders know it, as do builders and Realtors. Much more must be done to solve the housing crisis — even if those solutions prove politically unpopular. ”

“By Julie Morse, a licensed Realtor in Illinois and Wisconsin.”


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Monday, July 4, 2011

Lower Loan Limits: Let the Games Begin

The summer has barely started, but the fight is on against changes to loan limits that don't take place until the first of October.

Tom Grill | Photographer's Choice RF | Getty ImagesA new study claims lowering the loan limits at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA, "will reduce housing demand and place downward pressure on home prices in major housing markets." Today the National Association of Home Builders released its own study claiming that lowering the loan limits at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), "will reduce housing demand and place downward pressure on home prices in major housing markets."

The loan limits were raised when the mortgage market crashed, investors in mortgage backed securities ran for the hills, and the government-owned entities were the only ones left writing mortgages. Originally at $417,000 for a so-called "conforming loan," they rose to as high as $729,000 in the nation's higher-cost markets, in order to keep mortgages moving. That will drop to $625,000 in October in those markets, with the base limit remaining at $417,000.

The builders say that homes above those limits "would likely require financing with higher mortgage interest rates and other less favorable loan terms, such as higher required down payments and more stringent credit history thresholds."

So how many homes does that affect? According to the builders, 3.63 million owner-occupied homes now fall outside the loan limits, given their current values and an estimated 10 percent down payment (these homes aren't necessarily for sale). This is out of a total housing stock of 75 million U.S. homes. Lower the loan limit to $625,000, and the builders say you add 1.38 million homes to that group outside of the GSE/FHA eligibility.

I spoke with one of their number crunchers and suggested that out of 75 million homes, that's really kind of a drop in the bucket...barely 2 percent, and again, those homes aren't necessarily even on the market. He argued that the national number doesn't represent many big markets, like here in DC where it would be 8 percent of the housing stock. Lower limits would put 11 percent of owner-occupied homes out of conforming loan range in California.

There's no question, today's housing market doesn't need any more barriers to entry, but this is a tricky one. There's a very good reason to lower the loan limits, which is to get the government out of the housing business. Right now there is very little investor interest in mortgages, especially jumbo mortgages, with just a few jumbo securitizations this year at very low volumes.

The theory is that if you get the government out, even little by little, the investors will come back, but at what price? Comments at a recent conference of the American Securitization Forum, as reported by Inside Mortgage Finance, don't show a whole lot of excitement or confidence in the private market coming back to non-agency mortgages.

“It all has to do with liquidity. I would predict that many people are going to be even less willing to dip their toe into the non-agency market just based on what we’ve learned from the past. One of the key takeaways from the financial crisis and the liquidity crisis in 2008 was that, for all intents and purposes, we could not trade most of the non-agency products out there. It’s pretty evident that prime prices are now up 30 points higher,” said Nancy Mueller Handal, managing director of MetLife (from IMF).

“Where is the balance sheet that can hold and manage the size of the risk, the volume of the housing market that we’re talking about?” asked Sarah Wartell, executive vice president at the Center for American Progress (from IMF).

All this means that the higher end of the market will suffer, but that's a relatively small segment of the total market and the segment of the market in the least distress. So do we sacrifice some for the betterment(?)/overhaul of all? I'm sure we'll hear more this summer....Thoughts?

Questions?  Comments?  document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick


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Thursday, March 24, 2011

peHUB » Blackstone To Begin Fundraising for <b>Real Estate</b> Fund

Buyout shop Blackstone Group will begin fundraising this year for its next real estate fund, which could reach as high as $10 billion, Reuters reported. The firm raised $10 billion for a similar fund in 2008. That fund, Blackstone Real Estate Partners VI, is about 70 percent invested, Reuters reported.

(Reuters) - Private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX.N) said it expects to start fundraising this year for its next real estate fund, which could be about the same size as its $10 billion 2008 fund.

Blackstone, sitting on about $30 billion of capital to invest, has been active in buying U.S. commercial real estate such as hotels, retail property and warehouse space from distressed owners and others who need cash.

The company is unusual in its peer group of private equity firms in having huge real estate assets. It is seeing a recovery in the office and hospitality real estate sectors, and said concerns about inflation are increasing the interest in real estate as an investment.

“Real estate had a great year,” Chief Operating Officer Tony James said on a conference call to discuss the company’s fourth-quarter results. Blackstone invested nearly $5 billion in real estate in 2010, he said.

Its current real estate fund, Blackstone Real Estate Partners VI, is about 70 percent invested. As a result, it will start fundraising for its next real estate fund, BREP VII, this year James said.

“Our last fund was $10 billion and our target would be to do something similar,” he said.

Recent real estate deals struck by Blackstone include a $1.02 billion pact to buy industrial properties from ProLogic (PGC.L) (PLD.N); an investment in hotel chain Extended Stay America, which emerged from bankruptcy; and an investment in General Growth Properties Inc (GGP.N).

Commercial property, which was battered by the credit crisis and global economic downturn, has staged a rebound, most recently in the United States.

Blackstone said the value of its real estate funds rose 19 percent in the 2010 fourth quarter and 69 percent for the year, while its private equity portfolio rose 3 percent for the quarter and 29 percent for the year.

“In private equity, the portfolio is still improving but it isn’t accelerating improvement,” James said. “But real estate, which tends to lag, is showing quite good strength across the board.”

Overall, Blackstone’s fourth-quarter economic net income, or ENI, was $513 million, up from $329 million a year earlier.

Adjusted ENI was 46 cents per share, up from 29 cents a year ago and 16 cents above analysts’ average forecast, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

ENI strips out items such as noncash charges for vesting equity-based compensation and the amortization of intangible assets. It is the measure that private equity firms prefer to report and that analysts follow.

Blackstone shares closed up 4.1 percent at $17.36, their highest level since September 2008. Blackstone went public in the summer of 2007 at $31 a share.

The company is paying a quarterly distribution to shareholders of 32 cents a share, bringing its full-year distribution for 2010 to 62 cents a share.

2 A.M. PHONE CALLS

Blackstone Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman dialed in to the conference call from Europe. He has temporarily moved to Paris in order to manage the travel demands of frequent flights to Asia and the Middle East.

“It is a change of location which makes life a little easier,” Schwarzman said on the call. “But you have to stay up later and get phone calls at 2 a.m. and then get to work at a normal time … so I think someone is getting an extra six hours out of me.”

Schwarzman’s move to get closer to Asia is reflected in Blackstone’s investments. A large part of the investments it made last year from private equity went into emerging markets. Schwarzman said 80 percent of capital deployed in 2010 in private equity was invested in Asia.

Asia is expected to take a far smaller slice of Blackstone’s private equity investments this year, James said.

The skew towards Asia in 2010 was largely due to two U.S. deals falling through, James said. Blackstone had led a consortium trying to buy Fidelity National (FIS.N) in a $15 billion deal, and had unsuccessfully tried to buy Dynegy In (DYN.N).

“I think the U.S. will be a much more important component of what we do this year,” James said, adding that there would probably also be deals in Brazil with its new partner in the region, Patria Investimentos.

Blackstone bought a 40 percent stake in Patria in September. James also sees deals in Europe.

Blackstone said it just recently started investing its latest private equity fund — called BCP VI — which reached nearly $15 billion on Jan. 7.

Blackstone competes with a number of private equity firms such as publicly traded rival Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR.N) for private equity deals.

It has not struck any large leveraged buyouts recently, but has been considering a number of assets on the market.

It is among the private equity bidders vying for medical testing company Beckman Coulter (BEC.N), which has a market value of about $5 billion.

Two private equity consortia — one made up of Blackstone and TPG Capital, the second made up of Apollo [APOLO.UL] and Carlyle [CYL.UL] — submitted second round bids for Beckman on Wednesday, two sources familiar with the matter said. For more details

If successful, it would be one of the largest leveraged buyouts struck since the credit crisis.

Blackstone had been considering buying the beverages arm of Sara Lee (SLE.N) if the company had been sold to Brazil’s JBS. But the JBS deal ultimately did not happen. (Reporting by Megan Davies; Additional reporting by Soyoung Kim and Ilaina Jonas; Editing by Matthew, John Wallace and Bernard Orr)



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