Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration October 2013

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Housing Recovery to Face Test as Builders Report

Lack of land, labor and credit are all standing in the way of increasing home buyer demand, and leaving many of the small and mid-sized builders frustrated as their costs soar. They simply don't have the access to cash that the bigger players do.

"I think for the short term the people who have the cash will have the advantage. Over the longer haul, I think it will even out. I think the recovery is uneven," says Howard.

(Read More: Is Multi-Family HomeConstruction Overheating?)

The first builder to report Monday is Virginia-based NVR, with Ryland, Pulte and D.R. Horton continuing through the week. Analysts say Texas-based D.R. Horton, whose stock has recently outperformed its peers, is the one to watch, a bell weather for the group.

"They are the largest builder in terms of the number of closings, and they are in the most markets, so they will probably be able to tell us not only about orders, but also about other things that are important to folks now, like what are material prices doing, how are you negotiating with suppliers," notes Megan McGrath, an analyst at MKM Partners.

Most of the big builders have seen dramatic growth in new orders, as first time home buyers slowly come back to the market. These buyers are facing stiff competition from all-cash investors in the existing home market, and are therefore looking to new builds. D.R. Horton is an entry-level builder, but has been able to shift product to move-up buyers when the demand is there. Move-up buyers have been moving out of the market of late, despite the overall housing recovery and rising values.

"I think the recovery we're seeing right now is first-time buyer and the very high end of the market. The move-up buyer has not really shown up as of yet, and if you want to see a very strong recovery in housing we need to see the move-up buyer playing a more prominent role than they are today," says Richard Smith, Chairman and CEO of Realogy Holdings Corp.

Monthly readings on new and existing home sales are also out next week and will offer more insights into the current strengths and weaknesses of the housing recovery in this crucial Spring season.

(Read More: What's Holding Up City Home Prices? Boomers)

"In a worst-case scenario, confidence could weaken further and housing starts could mark time," says Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. "But by far and away the most likely outcome is that the construction industry's growing pains are overcome and homebuilders break ground on many more sites over the next few years."

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[Case Shiller] Recovery Is Back In Season

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Thursday, December 27, 2012, 7:00 AM

[click to expand chart]

Well the frequently maligned but most influential housing metric was published yesterday, the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices and the 20 City index rose 4.3% year-over-year. The only two “regions” to see declines were Chicago and New York.

Baseball Correlation? Chicago and New York are the only 2 cities who also have 2 Major League Baseball teams. No, Los Angeles doesn’t have two MLB teams…the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are clearly trying to have it both ways.

But I digress…

With all the talk about “recovery” (aka happy housing news) these days it just dawned on me that since 2000, the Case Shiller HPI only began to show significant seasonality since mid-2009. No one has really talked about this and I’m not sure what it means, but it just jumped out at me today.

Pre-peak housing prices fueled by falling lending standards and the seasons were largely crushed by the locomotive known as the housing boom. Therefore the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted price trends were virtually the same during the market’s ascent. I distinctly remember real estate agents commenting during this period that the seasons were going away and housing market patterns were changing permanently.

Post-peak housing prices After the plunge subsided in mid-2009, the market began to ebb and flow with peaks in the spring/summer and troughs in the fall/winter.

Note to self
The next time CSI prices begins to smooth into nothingness, perhaps it’s a housing boom, baby.

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Mortgage Recovery Still Rocky

BofA CEO on Future of Home Ownership "We changed our position to be direct to consumers," said Brian Moynihan, Bank of America president & CEO, discussing changes in his company's mortgage business, with CNBC's Diana Olick.

The trouble is, the banks are close to finishing their obligations under the settlement, and the largest, Bank of America, will not continue to offer principal reduction afterward.

"The programs then going forward will provide for similar relief, but I think we have offered principal reduction to all our borrowers — all the people we own, the asset that we can actually offer to that's been done," said Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan in an interview last week.

Another report Friday from Lender Processing Services showed a monthly increase in the U.S. loan delinquency rate in November. As it stands now, 7.12 percent of loans are 30-plus days past due, but not yet in foreclosure, and 3.51 percent are in the foreclosure process. Add it up and 5.35 million loans are still in some kind of trouble, according to LPS, as big banks finish their obligations under the settlement.

—By CNBC's Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

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Housing Recovery Is Leaving Behind First-Time Buyers

Unfortunately, first-time home buyers are seeing just the opposite, largely left out of this surge in sales and prices. Their share of the market, usually up in the 40 percent range historically, fell to 34.7 percent in October, the lowest in the Campbell/IMF survey's three-year history.

The National Association of Realtors put their share even lower, at 31 percent.

Either way, they are the only group of buyers that have not seen their share of non-distressed home purchases rise over the past five months. The mortgage of choice for these buyers, FHA-insured loans, are increasingly tough to obtain. (Read More: Yes, Housing Starts Surge, but Rentals Are the Drivers)

"Financing of first-time homebuyers with low down payments threatens to become a significant problem in the U.S. housing market," wrote Thomas Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys. "Fifty percent of first-time homebuyers use FHA financing, but FHA insurance premiums are increasing and underwriting is becoming more strict. Private mortgage insurance has started to fill the gap, but the long-term status of private mortgage insurance is in question pending the publication of the Qualified Residential Mortgage regulation resulting from Dodd-Frank." (Read More: Builders Bump Up Thanks to Drop in Existing Home Supply)

Real estate agents answering this latest survey also noted that the recent hike in FHA mortgage insurance premiums is hitting first-time buyers harder because some sellers are refusing to accept offers that include FHA financing. Adding insult to injury, the FHA, after reporting a major shortfall in its insurance reserve funds, announced it would raise premiums yet again, another 10 basis points early next year. (Read More: To Stem Losses, FHA Mortgages Get More Expensive)

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration October 2012

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Housing Recovery Is Leaving Behind First-Time Buyers

Current homeowners are finally moving up, and distressed sales are making up less of the overall market—all signs of much-needed improvement in housing.

Current homeowners accounted for 54 percent of October’s non-distressed market, up from 50 percent in June, according to a new survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

This as the share of non-distressed sales surged to 64.7 percent, up from 55.7 percent as recently as February.

Unfortunately, first-time home buyers are seeing just the opposite, largely left out of this surge in sales and prices. Their share of the market, usually up in the 40 percent range historically, fell to 34.7 percent in October, the lowest in the Campbell/IMF survey’s three-year history.

The National Association of Realtors put their share even lower, at 31 percent.

Either way, they are the only group of buyers that have not seen their share of non-distressed home purchases rise over the past five months. The mortgage of choice for these buyers, FHA-insured loans, are increasingly tough to obtain. (Read More: Yes, Housing Starts Surge, but Rentals Are the Drivers)

“Financing of first-time homebuyers with low down payments threatens to become a significant problem in the U.S. housing market,” wrote Thomas Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys. “Fifty percent of first-time homebuyers use FHA financing, but FHA insurance premiums are increasing and underwriting is becoming more strict. Private mortgage insurance has started to fill the gap, but the long-term status of private mortgage insurance is in question pending the publication of the Qualified Residential Mortgage regulation resulting from Dodd-Frank.” (Read More: Builders Bump Up Thanks to Drop in Existing Home Supply)

Real estate agents answering this latest survey also noted that the recent hike in FHA mortgage insurance premiums is hitting first-time buyers harder because some sellers are refusing to accept offers that include FHA financing. Adding insult to injury, the FHA, after reporting a major shortfall in its insurance reserve funds, announced it would raise premiums yet again, another 10 basis points early next year. (Read More: To Stem Losses, FHA Mortgages Get More Expensive)

Lower priced, distressed properties, like foreclosures and short sales, would seem like the best answer for first time buyers, but hungry, all-cash investors are proving to be too much competition. Investors purchased one fifth of all homes that sold in October, up from 18 percent the previous month, and all-cash buyers (largely investors) made up 29 percent of all sales, according to the Realtors. (Read More: How 'Fiscal Cliff' Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction)

This is why, despite increasing household formation, rental occupancies continue to fall and rents to rise. Would-be first time home buyers are either choosing or are forced to rent.

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration October 2012

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration August 2012

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Will Fed's Mortgage Buying Juice the Housing Recovery?

Home prices are stabilizing, and new construction is bouncing back, but apparently the U.S. Federal Reserve isn't buying a bullish housing recovery. 

Its announcement Thursday that it would buy up to $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month, with no clear finish line, says loud and clear that the Fed thinks housing needs more stimulus. (Read More: Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates.)

Mortgage rates are already hovering near record lows, but mortgage applications, especially to purchase a home, have been weak. So many have refinanced already at low rates, and so many more are unable to refinance because of lack of home equity or high fees. 

As for home buying, the real growth in that area this year has been among investors on the low end, largely using all cash.

Supplies of foreclosed properties have been shrinking dramatically, as those investors swarm auctions and bid on bulk deals. (Read More: How Investors Are Skewing Home Price Recovery.)

The hot and still heating rental market offers potentially more rewards than the volatile stock market.

In turn, all that activity on the distressed end is pushing up home prices. While overall foreclosure activity is falling, we could see volumes of bank-owned properties for sale rising over the next few months, as banks look to take advantage of rising demand and prices.

We are already seeing spikes in foreclosures activity in states where these cases had been backed up in the courts.

“Bucking the national trend, deferred foreclosure activity boiled over in several states in August,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac. “In judicial states such as Florida, Illinois, New Jersey and New York, this was a continuation of a trend we’ve been seeing for several months now. The increases in Florida and Illinois pushed foreclosure rates in those states to the two highest in the country — supplanting the non-judicial states of Arizona, California, Georgia and Nevada. Previous to August, the nation’s top two state foreclosure rates have been from those four non-judicial states every month since December 2010."

As more of these properties come to market, investors will likely prevail, despite many potential owner occupants looking to get in on good deals. Again, this is because investors have the cash advantage. Even low mortgage rates won't help some potential buyers, because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still increasing guarantee fees, which push rates higher. They could, however, mitigate some of the fee hikes.

"For everyday homeowners, QE3 should work to suppress mortgage rates at a time when they're artificially increasing. QE3 will offset the majority of the FHFA's new g-fees, and will help keep FHA loans affordable despite rising mortgage insurance premiums," argued Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage.

But there is also plenty of uncertainty about the future of mortgage financing, depending on the outcome of the November election, not to mention action the current administration is taking to shrink Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (Read More: 'Wind Down' of Fannie, Freddie: 'Positive for Housing'?)

"One new wrinkle is the recent announcement that Fannie and Freddie will be required to shrink their own retained MBS portfolios faster than expected," noted Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance. "This could slightly dilute the impact of the Fed's action since its increased purchases may be offset by less GSE purchases."

To see the low interest rates are not the housing cure-all, one need look no further than weekly mortgage applications numbers, which have been lackluster of late to say the least. The one benefit could be in the refinance segment of the market, especially as there is a new push to broaden the administration's current refinance program for underwater borrowers. More refinances mean more money in consumers' pockets. Unfortunately the Democrat-led effort is unlikely to make its way into reality, given the rising Republican opposition as election day nears.

No question more and more Americans will be turning to the housing market this fall, as home ownership is now cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest U.S. markets, "by a wide margin," according to a new report from Trulia.com. (Read More: As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?)

What remains to be seen is how many potential buyers will be able to take advantage of these low rates, given the still tight lending standards that rule today's market.

—By CNBC's Diana Olick

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Low Housing Inventory Is NOT A Sign of Housing Recovery

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Monday, July 9, 2012, 10:49 AM

I wrote “The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign” back in February, but there has been a more refined discussion about low inventory recently. Back then my orientation was more about the “robo-signing” scandal causing a drop in distressed listings as servicers held back supply – as well as the lack of confidence by sellers over whether they can achieve their price.

Stan Humphries, chief economist of Zillow has been a guest on my podcast and penned a great piece about it a few weeks ago called “The Connection Between Negative Equity, Inventory Shortage and Increasing Home Values: Why the Bottom Won’t Be as Boring as We Expected” tackling the impact of negative equity on inventory.

CoreLogic reported (via Nick Timiraos/WSJ) that the supply of homes for sale declines as negative equity increases.

David Rosenberg, chief economist as Gluskin-Sheff, and whom I had the pleasure of meeting with for dinner a few months ago, presented a great series of charts in his newsletter (via ZeroHedge).

It basically presents the idea that “upside-downers” ie those with negative equity, can’t list their homes for sale because they don’t have equity (or enough equity) for the next one.

Here’s the most compelling excerpt:

According to data cited by the USA Today, the supply backlog where over half of homeowners are “upside down” on their mortgage is at 4.7 months’; in areas where “upside down” borrowers make up less than 10% of the market, the listed inventory is closer to 8.3 months’ supply.

In other words, in markets with unusually tight inventory, prices are being “goosed” higher, not because the housing market is improving, but because there are fewer houses in the game. Low mortgage rates are artificially creating excess demand, with those buyers fighting over the slim pickings of sellers who can actually sell.

That, my friends, is NOT a housing recovery.

More visuals:

The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign [Matrix]
David Rosenberg Explains The Housing “Recovery” [Zero Hedge]
The Connection Between Negative Equity, Inventory Shortage and Increasing Home Values: Why the Bottom Won’t Be as Boring as We Expected [Zillow Real Estate Research]
Why Aren’t There More Homes for Sale? [WSJ Developments Blog/Nick Timiraos]

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration June 2012

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration May 2012

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration April 2012

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration March 2012

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Housing Hype: Recovery Turns to Relapse?

Housing was charging back. Spring sprung early. Sentiment among home builders doubled in six months. Any talk that the fundamentals might not be supporting the sentiment was met with harsh criticism. And then suddenly it wasn’t.

A slew of new housing data last week disappointed the analysts and the stock market, and all of a sudden you started to hear concern that maybe housing wasn’t exactly in a robust recovery.

From home builder sentiment to housing starts, to home builder earnings right through to sales of newly built homes, there was not one hopeful headline in any of it (except perhaps if you invest in rentals, as multi-family housing starts made more gains, but that is a contrary indicator to housing recovery).

And then an email from a Realtor in New Jersey: “Just reviewed March buyer clicks, Google’s analytics on all the sites we monitor – March is turning out to be the weakest month since last October re: Buyer interest..”

Now we start another week with another disappointment. Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts for existing homes, not closings, fell half a percentage point month-to-month.

That may not seem like a big deal, but the analysts were looking for a small gain. No doubt the Realtors will point to the solid 9% gain from a year ago, but so much of that gain is based on a change in the foreclosure pipeline.

Last year the foreclosure process stalled. The “robo-signing” mess brought everything to a standstill, and that left investors with little to buy on the distressed side. Foreclosures began ramping up again in the late fall, and that led to a surge in investor buying. Was that the “recovery” we were seeing?

Investors are still rushing into the market, with distressed sales making up a near-record 48.7 percent of sales in February on a three month moving average, according to a new report today from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

Investors are now a full quarter of the market, and they are increasing their activity in short sales (when a lender allows the home to be sold for less than the value of the mortgage).

Don’t get me wrong, investors buying up the distress is necessary to cleanse the market, but it is not real recovery. Mortgage originations are at a 12-year low, despite record low rates. Normal, “organic” home buyers, move-up owner occupants, are not flooding back into this market. Rents are still rising.

Mortgage analyst Mark Hanson runs some disturbing numbers to back up his contention that Q2 will disappoint: “Investor sales volume up 37 percent  year over year for a whopper 69 percent of all year over year existing home sales gains. First-timers are starting to look weak in Feb. The gains in first-timer and repeat sales can easily be explained by historic rates and weather and can easily reverse in a single month.”

That may be why the home builders, who had been on a streak of gains in confidence, suddenly stopped moving this month. KB Home [KBH  Loading...      ()   ] , which builds lower-priced homes, also came in with wildly disappointing earnings and an 8 percent drop in new orders. Sales of new homes also disappointed, which one analyst called, “puzzling.”

“If new homes are not selling, then why are builder confidence and single-family housing permits moving up, and why is the S.& P. home builder index up 80 percent since last October?” asks Patrick Newport at IHS Global Insight. “Time will tell if builders and investors have gone out on a limb.”

Several other analysts started to question the strength of the recovery as well, with some just hoping that perhaps a warm winter had pulled some demand forward from spring. Despite a miss on existing home sales in February, the headline pointed to, again, big gains from a year ago.

Yes, we are ahead of where we were, but as we’ve noted so many times here on this page, rising foreclosures will put added pressure on this market, and we may not be out of the woods yet.

“Despite an extraordinarily mild winter, home sales just plod along at a pace last seen during the mid-1990s,” notes Mark Zandi in his monthly report from Moody’s Analytics. “Thus, the underlying pace of home sales may not yet be strong enough to support a long-lasting upturn by home prices.”

Tomorrow we get the monthly reading on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. This index hasn’t been improving nearly as much as home sales, but the ever-hopeful housing lobby keeps blaming that on the fact that prices always lag sales, which is historically true, but what in today’s market has followed history?

Home prices are still falling not because of some lag, but because this housing market is running on sales of distressed properties at the very low end. The rest of the market is still stalled.

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration February 2012

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Boosting Prices So The True Economic Recovery Can Begin

Readers suggested a topic on the latest revelations and proposals from the central bank. “Is it perhaps really true that ‘Nobody could have seen it coming’? It isn’t as though an army of gadflies didn’t try to warn the Fed about where things were headed.’ ‘Newly released transcripts of Fed meetings during Bernanke’s first year as chairman show that, among Fed officials, he often expressed the most concern about housing. But no official, according to the transcripts, recognized the extent of the damage a housing bubble would cause. A year later, the housing market’s collapse helped send the nation into its worst recession since the Great Depression.”

“In September 2006, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, then a Fed official, expressed confidence that ‘collateral damage’ from housing could be avoided.”

A reply, “As long as the banksters have limitless QE to ward off a financial reckoning day for their fraud, hubris and avarice, Timmay’s assertion that collateral damage (for his bankster accomplices) can be averted is largely true. As far as taxpayers, savers, and our children, that’s another story entirely.”

Another added, “This to me is the saddest part of the whole story. When the bust is finally allowed to run its course, most in the populace will be unable to connect the dots. Due to the time lag in reaction to the original actions that brought us here, the current President, Congress, business and civic leaders at that point in time will be blamed and probably demonized. Some maybe even physically threatened as the true architects of this mess slink away scott-free to some Brazilian ranch to ride out any visceral reaction.”

To which was was said, “That is the game. Since you are from NY, note that we have not yet begun to pay for the retroactive public employee pension enhancements of 2000. Neither the unions nor the state legislature want any connection between that deal and rising taxes/service cuts.”

“Moreover, many CEOs who leveraged up in the 1990s were lionized, whereas those dealing with the fallout ever since are considered failures who are overpaid. The reality is they were overpaid in the 1990s, too.”

Another, “I think you are right, except that we are in busting mode and those in office are very reluctant to shatter the illusion. It’s a choice between villified now and revered later or celebrated now and vilified later.”

“Our last President impulsively said ‘This sukker’s going down’ and then his lips were sewn shut. Most people wanted to believe that the nasty bailouts would really save our sorry behinds. Isn’t working out that way. The Pres we have now just smiles and reads from the promtor. I was hoping he would go all JFK. Hasn’t happened.”

One had this, “The very fact that Bernanke was paraded around as an expert on the Great Depression, just before the collapse tells you they knew everything. The fact that Hank Paulson took the job as treasury secretary so he could cash out at the top tax free saving 200 million dollars so he could move into treasuries just before the crash tells you they knew everything that was coming. One look at where they invested would tell you if they knew what was coming.”

And finally, “Is the Fed’s White Paper proposal to use taxpayer-funded GSE losses to revitalize the housing markets merely a ploy intended to further enrich Goldman Sachs? Massive injections of printing press money could work wonders to revitalize the value of shi#@y mortgage assets.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recently approached the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and offered to buy a multibillion-dollar bundle of risky mortgage bonds that the Fed acquired in the 2008 bailout of American International Group Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.”

“The New York Fed responded by quietly canvassing a few securities dealers for bids on the bonds Goldman wanted to purchase, seeking competing offers to determine whether Goldman’s offer represented the best value for the bonds, the people said.”

The Sun Times. “When Charles L. Evans talks, people listen. The president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago recently spoke to about 200 business leaders at a presentation sponsored by the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club. They came to hear his personal perspectives on the current economy — and one of the topics was housing. Evans said that a more vibrant housing market is one of the key improvements needed to boost home prices and lift the overall economy.”

“He further noted that the Fed had recently been criticized by some Congressional leaders for issuing a special white paper on housing issues, which also suggested potential policy solutions. Whether perceived as contentious or not, Evans felt the paper focused needed attention on solving the distress sale crisis and improving valuations so that true economic recovery could begin.

“The National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors strongly agree with Evans and other Federal Reserve leaders, too. Both NAHB and NAR endorse specific recommendations in the above-noted white paper — such as loosening mortgage lending and refinancing criteria for credit-worthy borrowers.”

“The overall message is clear. Federal Reserve leaders know it, as do builders and Realtors. Much more must be done to solve the housing crisis — even if those solutions prove politically unpopular. ”

“By Julie Morse, a licensed Realtor in Illinois and Wisconsin.”

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration October 2011

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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration July 2011

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