2010-- Year in Review
Data compiled and presented by:
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed
86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434.589.5800 AllAroundCharlottesville.com
We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will ?nd the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .
The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however, is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted. The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License. This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.
creative commons
by attribution
no derivatives
We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might ?nd it valuable. If you have any questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the report, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, or send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com. You can also sign up for our regular email newsletter by visiting: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com
Strong Team REALTORS
Introduction
Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that. This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know ?rst-hand that market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best decisions for them. Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show you a true picture of the local real estate market.
Scope of this report
The is our “Year-in-Review” report. That means that the data in this report covers the entire year of 2010, and compares it to all of 2009. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of the region.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales By Area
The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area for the ?rst nine months of 2010. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total. Contrary to what many people expected, sales in the Charlottesville area actually rose in 2010, compared to 2009. The total number of sales in the area was 2% higher in 2010. While this isn’t a huge increase, it is certainly positive. Every county in the Charlottesville area saw an increase in sales, with the exception of the City of Charlottesville. Albemarle rose 2%, Fluvanna rose 12%, Greene rose 9%, and Nelson County rose a whopping 39%. Charlottesville, the lone loser in the area, saw sales fall by 18%. As we move through the report, and look at the monthly sales statistics, it becomes obvious that much of this increase in sales can be attributed to the Homebuyer Tax Credit. It would appear that the tax credit did achieve the goal of keeping the real estate market above water in our area in 2010.
Strong Team REALTORS
Total Sales by Area
2,200 1,980 1,760 1,540 1,320 1,100 880 660 440 220 0
450 1,058 1,082 2,111 2,159
370 272
304 191 209 140 194
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna
Greene
Nelson
Total
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during 2010 and 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible. Sales in Lake Monticello fell just slightly, with 3 less sales in 2010 than 2009. Sales in Fluvanna County, however, saw a big jump in 2010, increasing by 29%. In what is a recurring theme for 2010, the Homebuyer Tax Credit was a major factor in both of these statistics. In particular, Fluvanna has bene?ted from a tremendous increase in new construction sales in 2010. Most, although not all, of this activity was spurred by the tax credit and the incentives being offered by builders. Since there is very little new construction occurring in Lake Monticello, it did not experienced that same bump. That does not mean that the tax credit had no effect, however. The credit did much to bolster sales during the Spring market, which is why Lake Monticello was nearly able to keep pace with 2009 sales numbers.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales
160
157
144 128 112 96 80 64 48 32 16 0 Fluvanna Co. ONLY
122
150
147
Lake Monticello
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the monthly-by-month totals from 2010 and 2009. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the entire year in such a way that we can see the ?uctuations in sales from month-to-month. As was mentioned earlier in this report, you can see what a tremendous impact the tax credit had on sales when you examine them on a monthly basis. The drop off from June to July was tremendous. Once the tax credit expired on June 30th, sales in the area ran into a brick wall, falling a whopping 40% below last year’s level in July. Usually, July is the peak of the selling season, and historically has the most closings. The tax credit shifted much of that demand into the earlier months, and July numbers suffered greatly as a result. As we moved into the second half of the year, sales returned to earth, even falling below 2009 levels. The area did, however, end the year on a high note; with December 2010 sales signi?cantly outperforming the same month in 2009.
Strong Team REALTORS
Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
400 350 300
257 296 261 192 199 147 106 108 101 72 135 182 188 216 345
250 200 150 100 50 0
171 173 134 167
205 162
167
148
132
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month
The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information is limited to Fluvanna County (including Lake Monticello) on the ?rst chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on the second chart. In looking at the monthly numbers for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, again the impact of the tax credit once again becomes evident. While numbers did drop in July, as they did throughout the area, they didn’t drop so far as to be signi?cantly lower than July 2009 numbers. One of the reasons for this is that July 2009 was an uncharacteristic month. Sales in July 2009 were lower in both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello that was expected. The sales in both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello shared the same trend as the sales in the greater Charlottesville area, with numbers falling behind those seen in 2009 during the second half of the year, but showing a slight bump in December.
Strong Team REALTORS
Fluvanna Sales by Month
50
42
42 33 35 27 26 22 25 21 19 17 26 26 24 17 19 30 25 27
33
25
25
24
28
17
9
15
13
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Sales by Month
20
18 17 19 16 19 17
16
16 14 13 13 13 10 10 11 12 16 14 12
12
8
6
9 7
3 3
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area
The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2010 is compared to 2009, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY. The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The median price is a signi?cant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore, considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market. In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $262,540. In 2010, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area fell to $259,500 (-1.2%). Results for the median price were mixed across the areas, with some seeing an increase, and others seeing a decrease. In all cases, however, the difference wasn’t so extreme as to draw signi?cant attention. These numbers suggest that the Charlottesville area has once again returned to a normal level of yearly appreciation/depreciation. This is just more con?rmation that the days of 5%-10% appreciation on a yearly basis are long gone. Lake Monticello experienced a very slight increase (1%) in median home price.
Strong Team REALTORS
Median Price by Area
300,000 270,000 240,000 210,000 180,000 150,000 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 0 Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total
205,250 201,200 205,000 195,150 290,000 285,000 276,750 260,000 246,750 244,000 248,000 245,000 262,540 259,500
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Days on Market by Area
The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It shows the average DOM for the entire year of 2010. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only. DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually re?ect the true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower. Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others remain on the market for months, or even a year or more.
Strong Team REALTORS
Days on Market by Area
250
244
225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total
138 137 132 118 155 145
2010
Strong Team REALTORS
*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.
Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the inventory was measured on the ?rst day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2010, there were 301 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 127 of those were located in Lake Monticello. The good thing about these charts is that the inventory of homes on the market is falling. It is possible, however, that we might see this number jump in 2011 as foreclosures begin to come on the market more frequently in Lake Monticello and Fluvanna.
Strong Team REALTORS
400 388 375
363
Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month* 399 399
401 389 395 381 375 369 374
373 378 358 378
363 350
362 350
338 325 313 300 288 275
Jan. 301 321
331 331 323 327
328
294
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*
200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 127 149 143 144 144 142 144 149 142 136 125 150 174 174 185 177 162 162 167 152 151 151 144 137
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in 2010 and 2009. The “Fluvanna” column includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello. This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions, there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect of in?ating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly in?ated. Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the ?nal contract price was $192,000. Fluvanna County home sellers de?nitely did better, compared to list price, in the ?rst nine months of 2010 than Lake Monticello sellers did. The reason for this is that many of the sales in Fluvanna County were new construction homes. Construction companies are usually better at anticipating the market, and adjusting their prices accordingly. Many regular sellers are reluctant to price their homes lower, and they suffer the consequences as a result. As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and sellers should act accordingly.
Strong Team REALTORS
Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)
100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY
97.24 98.08
95.98 95.53
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats
The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello in 2010 and 2009. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold. There were signi?cantly more waterfront sales so far in 2010 than there were in 2009 (20 vs. 12). While there were more total sales in 2010, they sold for less on average ($452,544, or -7.5%) and had a lower median price ($429,500, or -3.5%) than what we saw in 2009. There might be a good reason for both the increase in sales and the lower average and median price-waterfront homes are being more accurately priced. While the prices being paid for waterfront homes might be lower than it has been in the last few years, those prices are also at the point that more accurately meets demand, so more waterfront homes are being sold. While waterfront inventory remains at historic highs, these numbers show that well-priced, high-quality waterfront homes are still in demand. There is one thing worth noting that is not re?ected in the data in the chart on the next page-waterfront homes sold for 94% of list price (average) in 2010. This re?ects the difference in the list price vs. the sold price at the time of the contract, not the original list price when the home originally went on the market.
Strong Team REALTORS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*
500,000
488,896
450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
445,000
452,544 429,500
Median Price
Average Price
2009
Strong Team REALTORS
2010
Source: CAAR MLS
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 20 sale in 2010, 12 sales in 2009
Conclusion
The one thing that is crystal clear from the numbers in 2010 is that it will likely be known as the “Year of the Tax Credit.” The tax credit had a tremendous impact on sales in the area, which was the purpose for having it in the ?rst place. One thing that everyone in this market must accept is that the market we are currently experiencing is likely going to be with us for years, not months. Unless there is some kind of signi?cant change in the overall economy, where we are is where we can expect to be for the foreseeable future. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as prices have become fairly stable, and sales are still occurring. Those who are able to accept this reality ?rst are the ones who have the greatest chance for success. 2011 will be a signi?cant year in the Charlottesville area for two reasons-- the ?rst is that there will be no tax credit to bolster sales; the second is that we will likely experience more foreclosure sales in 2011. The potential impact of both of these factors is unknown, but they certainly bear watching. You can rest assured that we will continue to watch the market closely in 2011, and you can count on us to keep you updated and on top of all the changes and news you need to know. Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good information provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.
Strong Team REALTORS
Thank you
We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may ?nd it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com, or sign up for our regular email newsletter at: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.
Strong Team REALTORS 86 Joshua Lane Palmyra,VA 22963 434-589-5800 AllAroundCharlottesville.com
Strong Team REALTORS
No comments:
Post a Comment