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Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Seat Shuffles: Rodney Fong was elected president of...
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Little Free Libraries: The latest movement in small building...
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Monday, February 27, 2012
Wrap It Up: 3 Ways to Use Decorative Paper at Home
Shopping at stationary stores, the beautiful paper sold by the sheet in brilliant colors and patterns always catches my eye. Many times they are thicker, more decorative and more expensive than the thinner gift wrap that is sold on a roll, but are so pretty that I would love to find an excuse to buy them.
Here are three ideas for using paper to transform, protect and decorate in the home.
• 1 In a step-by-step DIY, Blue Eyed Yonder shows us how to transform cloth into stiff material akin to paper that works beautifully to line drawers. This can be done with either paper or cloth and both serves to protect your things and adds a little beauty to an otherwise overlooked spot.
• 2 I love the idea of turning something as common as a brick into a chic book end as demonstrated by Design Sponge. Adding a touch of color or a pattern that would feel too bold on a grander scale is perfect when done easily and affordably.
• 3 These decorative clip boards double as a display area in place of a cork board and are an easy DIY via Martha Stewart that can be changed on a whim.
(Images: As Linked)
Fewer Foreclosures Could Mean Lower Home Prices
For years now we have been harping on how distressed home sales put downward pressure on home prices all around them. 
Close to twelve million borrowers are now in a negative equity position on their homes because so many other borrowers were unable to afford their mortgages. The logical assumption would then be that as foreclosures ease, organic home prices will rebound. But what if the current, unique state of the housing market turns that assumption on its head? Foreclosure sales now make up a full one third of the market nationally and far higher percentages in states like California, Florida, Nevada, and Georgia. The supply of these properties has actually been dropping, pushing prices higher, even in the distressed category. There is huge investor and first-time home buyer demand for distressed properties at the low end of the market, and that has helped stabilize prices. “We believe the distressed part of the housing market has already bottomed,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Oliver Chang on CNBC’s Squawkbox. “The bid that we see from the investor is the reason for this bottom.” He sees further declines in organic home prices. Why? Banks have been very slow to release their repossessed (REO) inventory onto the market, not to mention that foreclosure processing delays have literally millions of properties still sitting in foreclosure limbo.There is a dwindling supply of foreclosures and rising investor demand. Analysts keep pointing to overall falling inventories, but the current existing home sales pace doesn’t account for that drop.The fact is that with so much of the supply distressed, and so few organic sellers putting their homes up for sale, the inventory drop is artificially skewed to the recent lack of movement in foreclosures and a crisis of confidence among potential organic home sellers. Okay, so what about the fact that banks are ramping up the process now, which could put more properties on the market? That could boost supply, were it not for a new government program to sell foreclosures in bulk to large investors. Chang says over $1 billion in investor capital has been raised over just the past six weeks to take advantage of this new program, and he claims this could add up to 1.8 million jobs. Property managers, renovators, rental agents, he says would benefit from these bulk rental investments. Mortgage analyst Mark Hanson, however, disagrees. He claims that individual investors will likely spend more on upgrades/renovations than bulk investors and will then sell to owner-occupants at a higher price, thereby not only stabilizing but increasing overall home values, while also juicing jobs. “Due to epidemic effective negative equity (not having enough equity to pay a Realtor and put a down payment on a new house) the repeat buyer cohort has been cut in half since 2007. They now make up the minority of national resales," says Hanson.“Investors and first-time buyers ARE the real estate market," he adds. "Investors and first timers want REO and short sales. Anything done to prevent the flow of distressed property will hurt the volume of existing home sales and all of the economic benefit that comes along with them. An REO-to-rent program will bring about record lows in monthly existing home sales volume. And volume precedes price.” Hanson believes that when the distressed supply is choked off, by selling REO in bulk to rent, not re-sell, then the only thing you have left is meager organic sales. “The housing market will implode,” he adds. Yes, lower supply, in a normal market, would generally mean a return to home price appreciation, but that’s not the way today’s market is working because organic demand is still so weak and is hampered by tight credit. There is even less demand for mid- to higher-priced homes.“$200K to $300K is the new normal for home builders,” says Rick Palacios of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. “Since new home prices peaked in 2007, new single-family sales of over $500K have been more than cut in half, dropping from 13% to just 6% of all new home transactions. The existing home market is much the same, with the bulk of sales and demand in the very low price tiers. It just goes to show that in the historic recovery from an historic housing crash, the usual rules just don’t apply. Questions? Comments? document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick![]()
Close to twelve million borrowers are now in a negative equity position on their homes because so many other borrowers were unable to afford their mortgages. The logical assumption would then be that as foreclosures ease, organic home prices will rebound. But what if the current, unique state of the housing market turns that assumption on its head? Foreclosure sales now make up a full one third of the market nationally and far higher percentages in states like California, Florida, Nevada, and Georgia. The supply of these properties has actually been dropping, pushing prices higher, even in the distressed category. There is huge investor and first-time home buyer demand for distressed properties at the low end of the market, and that has helped stabilize prices. “We believe the distressed part of the housing market has already bottomed,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Oliver Chang on CNBC’s Squawkbox. “The bid that we see from the investor is the reason for this bottom.” He sees further declines in organic home prices. Why? Banks have been very slow to release their repossessed (REO) inventory onto the market, not to mention that foreclosure processing delays have literally millions of properties still sitting in foreclosure limbo.There is a dwindling supply of foreclosures and rising investor demand. Analysts keep pointing to overall falling inventories, but the current existing home sales pace doesn’t account for that drop.The fact is that with so much of the supply distressed, and so few organic sellers putting their homes up for sale, the inventory drop is artificially skewed to the recent lack of movement in foreclosures and a crisis of confidence among potential organic home sellers. Okay, so what about the fact that banks are ramping up the process now, which could put more properties on the market? That could boost supply, were it not for a new government program to sell foreclosures in bulk to large investors. Chang says over $1 billion in investor capital has been raised over just the past six weeks to take advantage of this new program, and he claims this could add up to 1.8 million jobs. Property managers, renovators, rental agents, he says would benefit from these bulk rental investments. Mortgage analyst Mark Hanson, however, disagrees. He claims that individual investors will likely spend more on upgrades/renovations than bulk investors and will then sell to owner-occupants at a higher price, thereby not only stabilizing but increasing overall home values, while also juicing jobs. “Due to epidemic effective negative equity (not having enough equity to pay a Realtor and put a down payment on a new house) the repeat buyer cohort has been cut in half since 2007. They now make up the minority of national resales," says Hanson.“Investors and first-time buyers ARE the real estate market," he adds. "Investors and first timers want REO and short sales. Anything done to prevent the flow of distressed property will hurt the volume of existing home sales and all of the economic benefit that comes along with them. An REO-to-rent program will bring about record lows in monthly existing home sales volume. And volume precedes price.” Hanson believes that when the distressed supply is choked off, by selling REO in bulk to rent, not re-sell, then the only thing you have left is meager organic sales. “The housing market will implode,” he adds. Yes, lower supply, in a normal market, would generally mean a return to home price appreciation, but that’s not the way today’s market is working because organic demand is still so weak and is hampered by tight credit. There is even less demand for mid- to higher-priced homes.“$200K to $300K is the new normal for home builders,” says Rick Palacios of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. “Since new home prices peaked in 2007, new single-family sales of over $500K have been more than cut in half, dropping from 13% to just 6% of all new home transactions. The existing home market is much the same, with the bulk of sales and demand in the very low price tiers. It just goes to show that in the historic recovery from an historic housing crash, the usual rules just don’t apply. Questions? Comments? document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_OlickSunday, February 26, 2012
Foreclosures on the Rise Again
After a year-long reprieve from rising foreclosures, the numbers are going up again.
One in every 624 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in January, up 3 percent from the previous month, according to a new report from RealtyTrac. Foreclosure activity froze in many states in 2011, due to processing delays after fraud, or so-called "Robo-signing," were uncovered in the fall of 2010. The thaw is now on."We expect the pattern of increasing foreclosures to continue in the coming months, especially given the finalized mortgage and foreclosure settlement reached in early February between 49 state attorneys general and five of the nation's largest lenders," said RealtyTrac's CEO Brandon Moore in a written release. "Foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 12 months in Florida, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania, following a pattern we saw in late 2011 in states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts."While states that do not require a judge to preside over foreclosure proceedings, like California, saw a jump in filings toward the end of last year, judicial states have all but stalled. That will now change, thanks to the $26 billion dollar government-lender/servicer settlement. There will still be some delays on individual state levels, but the wheels are turning again, and that means more bank repossessions and more foreclosed properties heading to the re-sale market.Bank repossessions, the final stage of the foreclosure process, increased at least 30 percent year-over-year in several states, including Massachusetts, which saw a 75 percent spike. Bank-owned or REO (real estate owned) activity hit a 16-month high in Illinois and a 15-month high in Indiana. Default notices, the first stage of foreclosure, were flat nationally in January, but spiked in judicial states, like Connecticut and Pennsylvania (up 112 percent) and even in non-judicial states like Maryland (up 100 percent).Nevada still posted the highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 198 households receiving a filing, despite an 8 percent drop in foreclosure activity. Nevada is a non-judicial foreclosure state, so the foreclosure backlog has been clearing for the last several months.The situation is the same in California, where foreclosure activity dropped to a 50-month low, but the state still posted the second highest foreclosure rate in the nation. More than 51,000 borrowers received a foreclosure filing in January. California cities still account for nine of the top ten metro foreclosure rates, according to RealtyTrac.As optimism seems to abound for the spring, at least among the nation's home builders whose sentiment index jumped to the highest level in four years this month, foreclosures still stand in the way of a robust recovery.Distressed property sales lower the value of homes around them, and that pushes more borrowers into a negative equity position, owing more on their mortgages than their homes are currently valued. Until banks work through the enormous backlog of foreclosures, which number in the millions, home prices will not hit a firm bottom, especially in the most troubled local real estate markets.Questions? Comments? document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick ![]()
One in every 624 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in January, up 3 percent from the previous month, according to a new report from RealtyTrac. Foreclosure activity froze in many states in 2011, due to processing delays after fraud, or so-called "Robo-signing," were uncovered in the fall of 2010. The thaw is now on."We expect the pattern of increasing foreclosures to continue in the coming months, especially given the finalized mortgage and foreclosure settlement reached in early February between 49 state attorneys general and five of the nation's largest lenders," said RealtyTrac's CEO Brandon Moore in a written release. "Foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 12 months in Florida, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania, following a pattern we saw in late 2011 in states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts."While states that do not require a judge to preside over foreclosure proceedings, like California, saw a jump in filings toward the end of last year, judicial states have all but stalled. That will now change, thanks to the $26 billion dollar government-lender/servicer settlement. There will still be some delays on individual state levels, but the wheels are turning again, and that means more bank repossessions and more foreclosed properties heading to the re-sale market.Bank repossessions, the final stage of the foreclosure process, increased at least 30 percent year-over-year in several states, including Massachusetts, which saw a 75 percent spike. Bank-owned or REO (real estate owned) activity hit a 16-month high in Illinois and a 15-month high in Indiana. Default notices, the first stage of foreclosure, were flat nationally in January, but spiked in judicial states, like Connecticut and Pennsylvania (up 112 percent) and even in non-judicial states like Maryland (up 100 percent).Nevada still posted the highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 198 households receiving a filing, despite an 8 percent drop in foreclosure activity. Nevada is a non-judicial foreclosure state, so the foreclosure backlog has been clearing for the last several months.The situation is the same in California, where foreclosure activity dropped to a 50-month low, but the state still posted the second highest foreclosure rate in the nation. More than 51,000 borrowers received a foreclosure filing in January. California cities still account for nine of the top ten metro foreclosure rates, according to RealtyTrac.As optimism seems to abound for the spring, at least among the nation's home builders whose sentiment index jumped to the highest level in four years this month, foreclosures still stand in the way of a robust recovery.Distressed property sales lower the value of homes around them, and that pushes more borrowers into a negative equity position, owing more on their mortgages than their homes are currently valued. Until banks work through the enormous backlog of foreclosures, which number in the millions, home prices will not hit a firm bottom, especially in the most troubled local real estate markets.Questions? Comments? document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick Art and Architecture: Performance art's leading lady, Marina Abramović,...
Bits Bucket for February 17, 2012
Rms said his friend said: “Don’t trust anything — even a formal contract.”
Wha? No ‘formal contract’ can get you money that just doesn’t exist. No court will order a debtor to pay a creditor beyond what he’s able to pay; because even if they did, the payment just won’t be made, dig? This method is almost as certain as physical law, like gravity.
Any fool with basic access to information 20 years ago could have seen the pension crisis coming. And yet, none of the actuaries, accountants, mathematicians and executives did. None of the people writing the policies and investment documents, did.
Well, not really, lots of them saw this coming, but either they were disregarded or they kept their traps shut and kept collecting the paychecks… and if any of their squawking reached the media, they continued to be disregarded or just called doomers. Anti-American. Chicken Littles. America keeps getting fooled into thinking there will always be plenty of money available to cover everything… while yearly, bankruptcies, foreclosures and other defaults deny this belief.
Rms’ friend still needs a reality check. He’s handing out the right advice, yes… but based on the wrong reasoning. You should always evaluate financial systems for their stability. You have to become a bit of a financial maven into your adulthood, to prepare for understanding which deals are good and which are bad. I was a skeptical lad myself when I went into the military at age 18, and due to that skepticism I always had money while the dolts around me ran out constantly. I spend, but not like they did, which even Darrel/Phoenix can’t complain about. I lived like the common sensibility of the 1970s Midwest told me to live, and it’s always served me… sadly, however, since it’s served me better while people around me lived like the common sensibility of the 2000s California, meaning they spent all their income and leveraged that income into lifelong debts. Their defaults have provided me with a lot of property and equipment that I’ve bought for dimes on the dollar.
I must say again: It’s not the fault of the contracts. Basic legal principles state clearly that contracts written in bad faith aren’t valid. That’s what all these pensions are: Contracts written in bad faith. So they must fail, and a lot more people should have not only seen this coming, but prepared for it.
Comment of the Day: "Helloooooo Warriors! Building the arena on...
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"Helloooooo Warriors! Building the arena on the Giants parking lot in Mission Bay is the smartest development decision the city has been a part of since working with the Giants on ATT Park in the first place. Bring it on." - killbotkondo [The San Francisco Warriors]
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Cowboy Towns: You could buy an entire South...
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? Previous: The S.C. Mansion that Served as Robert E. Lee's Pied-à-Terre
? Next: Nine Truly Lovely Green Rooms in the New House Beautiful
House of the Day: Jackson Hole's Paintbrush Ranch Offers Picture-Perfect Views
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Have a nomination for a jaw-dropping listing that would make a mighty fine House of the Day? Get thee to the tipline and send us your suggestions. We'd love to see what you've got.
Location: Jackson Hole, Wyo.
Price: $8,495,000
The Skinny: Encompassed by National Park and National Forest, the aptly-named Paintbrush Ranch displays perfectly-framed mountain vistas through broad picture windows. This five-acre property sits at just the right distance from the famous Teton Range, capturing the jagged peaks in their entirety, and from nearly every room in the house. The 9,100-square-foot main house has an exposed wood frame construction that adds that mountain vibe, and while the interior design and architecture leave a little to be desired—ahem, is that a velvet painting in the bedroom?—there's little here that a little sprucing up couldn't fix. Plus, there's space galore, with a detached three-car garage topped by a two-bed apartment, a one-bedroom caretaker's cottage, and two "shop" buildings to store all the toys. The price may be hefty, at $8.5M, but that's a major discount on the original asking price, which was almost $14M.
· Paintbrush Ranch [Hall & Hall]
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Comment of the (Yester)day: "wait, they're fighting to build an...
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PM Linkage: Dolores Park Playground Still On Track; Bad Behavior in Bernal Gets TV Attention; It Poured On Trinity Plaza; More!
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Production Pullback: Industrial Production January 2012
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Celebrity Real Estate: Inside Matthew McConaughey's Tony New Austin Estate
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Sarah Firshein Photos via Zillow Blog
Chilled-out über-celebrity Matthew McConaughey has reportedly scooped up a nine-acre estate near Austin. The 10,000-square-foot Spanish Med-style mansion was built in 1997 in the style of midcentury architect Addizon Mizner, has seven bedrooms, eight bathrooms, a carved wood staircase, a two-island kitchen, tiled floors throughout, an elevator, verandas, terraces, pergolas, a courtyard with a water fountain, a stone guesthouse with its own covered porch, and seven boat slips on the lake. According to a tipster, that McConaughey has already moved with his supermodel fiancée Camila Alves has not deterred neighborhood soccer moms, many of whom have been jogging by the house in hopes of catching the actor doing yoga, say, shirtless on the front lawn. (As he's known to do these days.) About what he paid: the property was originally listed for close to $7M but it had been PriceChopped to some $4M by Nov. 2010 and then taken off the market last month—it's likely that it closed for somewhere near the low end of the spectrum.
· Your Mama Hears... [The Real Estalker]
Another Piece Of The Wreckage
Readers suggested a topic on the recent legal settlement. “Will ‘rough justice‘ suffice to lay the the robo-signing fiasco to rest?”
A reply, “This is a complete and total bank-friendly deal. My understanding is that they get 50% credit for writing down loans that they service but do not own. So they can write down say $20 billion of loans that they own and take the loss. Or they can write down $40 billion of loans that are owned by someone else, for example pension funds, and the pension funds take the loss. Anyone want to bet which they will do?”
“On top of that, once they convert these loans, they become taxpayer guaranteed. So if they still default, we pick up the tab, not the banks.”
“For the past few years, any time there’s any decision or policy or ruling that the government is going to make, I assume it will be for the benefit of the bankers, because they’re in charge. Bankers run the country, not Obama, not congress. I’ve been doing that, and so I’m never surprised. 100% of the time it’s for the bankers. If something also benefits the people, that’s only a coincidence.”
Another said, “It isn’t ‘justice’ at all. It’s another privileged buyout. NO prosecutions. No one held accountable. Just a fine. That’s right another ’settlement,’ without prosecution. Business goes on as usually, and, gee how draconian, after robbing the taxpayers of hundreds of billions of dollars, to quote the Post…..’$26 billion in return for a measure of legal immunity.’ I think it’s actual FULL legal immunity, but I wouldn’t expect the Post to be in favor of prosecutions or to present this theft of the American taxpayer as anything but really rough on the crooks. It’s their people who are on the ropes.”
One had this, “Real Estate valuations down 30% is kind of crash-ish. Yet the banks look good. A headline hit of $26 Billion also makes the banks look good, as if they were solvent. They are still paying big bonuses and people are demonstrating in the streets against the bank’s greed. It’s all good PR and in a perverse way gives us confidence in the financial system.”
And finally, “Not only does business go on as usual but if you read the article in the New York magazine last weekend they’re already whining that Frank-Dodd unjustly places too many limitations on them and they can’t make money anymore. Their plan now that everything is government guaranteed is to just keep pumping out the loans no matter what the risk. It appears they really do believe they can reinflate the bubble.”
“Man, when we finally do get to the crash that should have happened in 2001 pre all this credit pushing it is going to be ugly.”
“Aside from any monetary awards, I’m interested in whether or not some of this shadow inventory starts to be released, although we did find out yesterday GSE inventory is not included. Also I’m interested in hearing if anyone has an idea about how long will the delay be before we see it released?”
“Could it be that shadow inventory will soon be entered into the mix? Will it be a deluge or a trickle? In tight markets such as mine, will I even notice? Will it produce the never before seen in my market sheriff at the door?”
“Over the entire span of this experience, there have only been 2 homes we passed on thinking the prices would collapse more that we mourn the loss. Two out of hundreds we’ve looked at over years of watching the inventory. If another came our way I think we’d grab it this time. But more than likely it’ll be another year w/o seeing too much of anything. Why do I want to tie a noose around our necks for ‘meh’? Remember, this market can only move sideways. Jobs/incomes are not improving. Credit will not be any looser than it is today. The other people ‘grabbing’ those homes may be investors with cash who may be buying bulk at lower prices than you’d be allowed. I personally wouldn’t seek to compete with them.”
The Bay Citizen. “The Obama administration has pushed hard for the settlement, under which Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citibank and Ally Financial would pay billions of dollars to defrauded homeowners in exchange for a release from further civil liability. Approximately 750,000 borrowers who wrongfully lost their homes to foreclosure will receive $1,800 to $2,000 each, sources said.”
“Administration officials have said the settlement would also help about a million families get a $20,000 write-down on their mortgage. Members of California’s congressional delegation have said the deal represents little more than a ‘drop in the bucket’ for troubled borrowers. Nationwide, about 10 million American borrowers collectively owe $700 billion more on their homes than their homes are worth.”
“‘The amount of people the settlement is going to cover is going to be a tiny portion of the people harmed by the banks,’ said Tim iglesias, a professor of real estate law at the University of San Francisco.”
From WLS TV. “Illinois homeowners facing foreclosure will get a share of the $25 billion settlement reached with some of the nation’s biggest banks. The settlement commits the banks to reduce mortgage principals, refinance underwater mortgages and cash payouts to some who lost their homes. ‘Today we pick up another piece of the wreckage caused by the foreclosure crisis,’ Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan said. ‘Today’s settlement should serve as a warning to financial institutions that there are consequences for engaging in practices that jeopardize the stability of our communities and our economy.’”
“Sherri Norris says she’s losing a three-year foreclosure fight for her Broadview condo. She hopes a new deal will help her move forward. ‘I’m hoping and praying it’s not too late,’ she said. ‘I’m just being prayerful.’”
“Geoff Smith, executive director of the Depaul’s Institute on Housing Studies, said he hopes the settlement brings relief to homeowners facing foreclosure. ‘If run effectively, it will help homeowners in distress but I don’t think we can really expect it to kick start the market,’ he said.”
“As that settlement trickles down to homeowners, Norris is preparing for an eviction, moving out and staying with relatives. ‘It’s very scary because you don’t’ know when they are going to come and bring the sheriffs in and tell you to come and move out,’ Norris said. ‘You just take one day at a time. It’s been very frustrating. (It) keeps you on pins and needles all the time.’”
Bits Bucket for February 12, 2012
Too bad Polly isn’t with us this weekend to school this dumb rube LA Times writer in the subtleties of law, as it applies (or doesn’t) to Wall Street investment banksters.
Mortgage settlement is great — for politicians and banks
The settlement mostly requires mortgage lenders and servicers to comply with what I would have thought was already the law, which prohibits, you know, criminal fraud.
California Atty. Gen. Kamala D. Harris retains the right to pursue the banks under state fraud laws. But the settlement narrows the breadth of a promising Massachusetts investigation and may entirely shut down cases brought against BofA by the Arizona and Nevada attorneys general. (Bob Chamberlin, Los Angeles Times)
By Michael Hiltzik
February 11, 2012
I hate a parade. And the parade of rosy self-congratulation staged last week by the creators of the $25-billion mortgage fraud settlement with five big banks is the kind of parade I really hate.
There certainly are some big winners in the deal, which has the approval of 49 of the 50 state attorneys general. Start with its godfathers. President Obama took to the podium a couple of hours after the deal’s announcement to declare that it will “speed relief to the hardest-hit homeowners.”
California Atty. Gen. Kamala D. Harris went before the cameras soon after that, taking credit for “a tremendous victory for California,” which has been perhaps the hardest-hit state in the foreclosure crisis.
Then there are the banks. The signatories to the deal are Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase and Ally Financial (formerly GMAC), which handle payments on more than half the nation’s outstanding 27 million home loans and therefore have been at the center of the servicing and foreclosure abuses the settlement is supposed to end.
If you don’t listen too closely, it sounds as if they’re putting up the $25 billion. Not so. The only cold cash the banks are paying is a combined $5 billion, including $1.5 billion to compensate borrowers whose homes were foreclosed on from 2008 through the end of last year, with the rest going to the federal and state governments to pay for regulatory programs.
Most of the balance is in mortgage relief for stressed or underwater mortgage holders, including principal reductions, refinancings and other modifications.
How much of this will translate into an outlay of cash by the five banks? Not much, if any.
For one thing, even the government acknowledges that a lender typically benefits when ways are found to keep a home out of foreclosure — a lender loses an average $60,000 on every foreclosure, according to figures the federal government disclosed in connection with the settlement announcement. It’s been institutional resistance and legal entanglements, not economics, that have kept more modifications from going forward.
Many of the loans destined to be modified under the settlement aren’t even owned by the banks, but rather by investors — the banks just collect the checks.
Consequently, as mortgage expert Adam Levitin of Georgetown Law School observes, most of the settlement “is being financed on the dime of MBS [mortgage-backed securities] investors such as pension funds, 401(k) plans, insurance companies and the like — parties that did not themselves engage in any of the wrongdoing covered by the settlement.”
What about homeowners? They don’t get much, especially in relation to the scale of the housing crisis. More than 2 million owners have lost their homes to foreclosure during the last four years; this deal will provide 750,000 with a payment of $2,000 each.
Some 11 million homeowners are underwater by about $700 billion combined, or an average of nearly $65,000 each. In a transport of optimism, federal officials are projecting that this deal will help 2 million of them, to the tune of perhaps $20,000 each. By the way, loans owned by the government-sponsored firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t eligible for this relief. Since they own or control the majority of all outstanding mortgages, that’s a rather large black hole.
…
Friday, February 24, 2012
On the Market: Among the many things $24M buys:...
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? Previous: Inside Matthew McConaughey's Tony New Texan Estate
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PM Linkage: Jim Denevan Interview; Chinese New Year Parade Photos; More Photos From Rincon Hill Dog Park; More!
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Magazine Living: Cotton the Act...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Sarah Firshein The all-American characters of Gary and Elaine have wormed their way into households aplenty thanks to the ingenuity of Molly Erdman, whose Catalog Living blog points to styling curiosities within catalogs. Here now, Erdman does the same for shelter magazine photos.
"I'll be honest Martin. I'd trade this huge hunk of fool's gold for just one more white button-down shirt."Photo by Paul Costello/Martha Stewart Living
"I'll be honest Martin. I'd trade this huge hunk of fool's gold for just one more white button-down shirt."Photo by Paul Costello/Martha Stewart Living Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales January 2012
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AM Linkage: Gold Dust Landlords Not Happy; Foreclosure Irregularities Widespread; Noe Valley House Do-over; More!
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Celebrity Real Estate: Heiress Petra Ecclestone Opens Up About Her $85M House
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Rob Bear
Photo: W
Remember that sort of no-name 23-year-old heiress who spent $85M on Candy Spelling's L.A. manor last year? Well, following her $19M wedding to "gold mine owner" James Stunt, the Formula One heiress Petra Ecclestone was finally ready to let the glossy magazine W behind the gates at the manor and in doing so managed to embarrass herself to no end. Curbed LA has the full rundown of the absurd items in the article, but we can't help but mention a few: She enlisted no fewer than 500 people to install her new furnishings over the course of nine weeks; she has a brand-new coat of arms designed by her decorator; she invites over insufferable fellow heir Brandon Davis; and, for when she's visiting daddy in England, she just turned around and spent $87M on a house in London's Chelsea neighborhood. For the rest, head to W.
· Lady of the Manor [W]
· 15 Ridiculous Things Petra Ecclestone Brought to The Manor [Curbed LA]
· Spelling's $150M Megamansion Finds Appropriately Absurd Buyer [Curbed National]
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Obama's Party House: President Obama is set to hold...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Rob Bear
? Previous: Interviews
? Next: Inside Matthew McConaughey's Tony New Texan Estate
Oldman Buys: Long-time actor Gary Oldman, most recently...
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? Previous: Nick Jonas Rents One of NYC's Favorite Celebrity Apartments
? Next: Dwell on The Office
Linkage: Some Assembly Required; Animal House 2; Canal House; More!
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Linsanity!: Knicks breakout star Jeremy Lin has...
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? Previous: On the Market
? Next: Disasters
Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices December 2011
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CurbedWire: Star Wars Locations; Singles; Be Russell Simmons' Neighbor
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, February 14, 2012, by Rob Bear
Photo: Los Apos
TUNISIA— The southern Tunisian desert served as a stand-in for the mythical planet of Tatooine in the Star Wars trilogy and now there's a totally comprehensive guide to the shooting locations that made it happen. GPS coordinates make it easy to plan your own trip, if you're inclined to follow in Luke Skywalker's footsteps. [Los Apos]
NATIONAL— Just in time to stave off a lonely Valentine's Day, Trulia has mapped out the neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of singles in five major American cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and Miami. [Trulia]
NEW YORK— NYC's Financial District isn't exactly known as a high-end residential hub, but that hasn't stopped one building from packing in both star power and high prices. This $7.65M loft, with a whopping 5,800 square feet and six bedrooms, sits just one flight down from the Manhattan pied-a-terre of Russell Simmons. [Curbed NY]
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Open House Report: Weekend Open House Report: Under 500K Edition
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Sally Kuchar
Location: 76 Littlefield Terrace, Potrero Hill
Size: 2-bed, 1.25-bath; 956 square feet
Price: $465,000
Pitch: "Located in sunny Potrero & the best area (west side) of the Parkview Heights development facing south-east with views of the hills & beyond, this beautifully renovated townhouse will please the hard to please. The upper level has 2 bedrooms, one with a basin, & a full bathroom that has been fully renovated. The main floor has a wonderfully remodeled kitchen with Dual Decor free range (gas), Bosch dishwasher & microwave & Profile refrigerator. The warm living room has HW floors & a custom Italian wall unit. A deck and a hot tub are just outside the back door. Anderson windows have been installed. There is direct access from the private garage (with storage) to the home. So many amazing improvements it will blow your mind. One of a kind!"
Open House: Sunday, 2 to 4PM
Location: 273 Lowell Street, Corcker Amazon
Size: 2-bed, 1-bath; 981 square feet
Price: $499,000
Pitch: "Another stunning home for you and your family with great income potential. Top floor consists of 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, formal living and dining room, with beautiful skylights throughout. Beautiful, original refinished wood floors throughout. There is a half bath in the kitchen area. Sun-room with excellent City views extends off the kitchen and offers a pleasant reading area. Downstairs is unwarranted, and not guaranteed by Seller, but it includes 2 additional bedrooms, 1 full bath and full kitchen; perfect for the in-laws. Clear Pest Report on file, ready for move in. This is a regular sale with brand new roof, updated plumbing and electrical!"
Open House: Sunday, 2 to 4PM
Location: 140 South Van Ness Avenue, SoMa
Size: 1-bed, 1.5-bath; 830 square feet
Price: $449,800
Pitch: "This two level 1 bedroom 1.5 bathroom condominium featuring views of the San Francisco skyline & bay bridge, spacious living/dining combination and in unit stackable washer/dryer. Kitchen includes all appliances, granite counters & maple finish cabinets. Master suite with office alcove & a bathroom that boast marble counter and limestone floor & tub surround. This home is conveniently located to Market Street F line, public transportation ( BART & MUNI) and ideal for commuters as the central freeway is one block away & connects to the 101 & 280. 140 South offers a 24hr access fitness center, courtyard & conference room. Close to Hayes Valley, the Castro, Valencia Corridor shopping & restaurants, the Opera, Ballet, & SoMA night life."
Open House: Sunday, 1 to 4PM
The Week's Top Family Posts February 13 - 17, 2012
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Dwell on The Office: The popular modernist design mag Dwell...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Rob Bear
? Previous: Oldman Buys
? Next: Remote and Pricey, This Coastal Maine Estate Still Near Perfect
Disasters: Multimillionaire Ed Bazinet proves, yet again,...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Sarah Firshein
? Previous: Linsanity!
? Next: Cotton the Act...
Producing Interiors: The hyper-successful TV producer Darren Star,...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Rob Bear
? Previous: After Six Years, The Last FEMA Trailer Rolls Out of Louisiana
? Next: A Breathtaking 350-Acre Ranch Just North of Santa Barbara
Bits Bucket for February 15, 2012
Delray Beach foreclosure scam companies to pay $59,000 in restitution
by Kim Miller
Three Delray Beach companies accused by the state of bilking hundreds of homeowners in a foreclosure rescue scam have agreed to settle the complaint for $59,000.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi’s office announced the settlement with Home Owner Protection Economics, Inc. DC Financial Group, and Deleverage America, Inc., on Tuesday. The owners of the firms are Christopher S. Godfrey, 43, of Delray Beach and Dennis Fischer, 40, of Highland Beach.
According to the settlement filed in court, about 320 people contracted with the companies and are due an estimated $234,217 in restitution after being illegally charged upfront fees for foreclosure-rescue services that were never provided.
The fees charged by the three companies ranged from $495 to $2,000, according to an investigation by the attorney general’s economic crimes division.
Also, the companies allegedly told homeowners they would reduce their debt and prevent foreclosure, when in reality lender banks were never contacted on the homeowners’ behalf.
“Any homeowner who seeks the help of a foreclosure-related rescue service and is asked for an up-front fee should report that business to our office immediately,” said Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi in a press release announcing the settlement. “This practice is prohibited by state law, and my office will continue to crack down on these illegal actions.”
The state sued the companies in May and they were ordered temporarily shut down by Palm Beach County Circuit Court Judge Robin Rosenberg. The settlement permanently shutters the businesses and bars Godfrey and Fischer from operating any loan modification services in the future.
Homeowners who think they were scammed by the companies need to fill out a claims form with proof of payment to the firms by March 12. The claims form can be found here, or at the attorney general’s website, http://www.myfloridalegal.com.
Godfrey and Fischer were also indicted in Massachusetts in August after federal investigators said their loan modification company _ called HOPE _ took $3 million from thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure. HOPE also did business as DC Financial Group and Deleverage America.
Palm Beach County Property Appraiser records show Godfrey as the owner of a Delray Beach home that he bought in 2005 for $1.14 million. Fischer is listed as the owner of a Highland Beach home he purchased in 2007 for $612,500. Both homes are in foreclosure.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 14th, 2012 at 5:26 pm and is filed under Foreclosures, Housing affordability, Housing boom, Mortgage fraud, Mortgages, Real estate bust.
One Response to “Delray Beach foreclosure scam companies to pay $59,000 in restitution”
1
eric targan Says:
February 14th, 2012 at 6:01 pm
That settlement isn’t even worth reporting. 59000 to split between 430 people is $137 a piece. Another example of our public officials not looking out for us.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
CurbedWire: Casa.com Launches; Great Architecture Out East; Avatar
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Photo via The Kitchn
THE INTERNET—Please welcome to the dancefloor Casa.com, a new home site that sells cookware, bedding, small appliances, tabletop pieces, and more. Good news: they've got a 365-day return policy. [CurbedWire Inbox]
THE HAMPTONS—Some good architecture up for grabs out East: a Norman Jaffe-designed rental and a Bates Masi contemporary asking $895K. [Curbed Hamptons]
KISSIMMEE, FLA.—In order to differentiate itself from 2009 Oscar-winning James Cameron smash hit, builder Avatar has changed its name to AV Homes. Per the release, "Could it be the first time a company has had to change its name because of a blockbuster movie of the same name? Probably so." Then: "But the story does have a happy ending, as did the movie." [CurbedWire Inbox]
Olatz Schnabel's Home in the West Village New York Times
At the very back of the new TStyle mag (the VERY back) is the best bit: beautiful interior shots and a brief article on Olatz Schnabel and her new West Village home. Julian Schnabel's former wife - a Basque-from, Paris-raised ex-model - has impeccable style and you can easily see her influence on Julian Schnabel's interior projects (and I like hers more).
There's a much lighter, feminine touch to these rooms, even though they are saturated with deep color, suddenly heavy, out of the ordinary objects and lots of large Schnabel paintings.
"The place reminds her, she said, of being in the French countryside or in Paris. But the truth is, it's a more intricate hybrid than that. Much has been rescued: wood paneling thrown out by Cooper Union has been given a new lease on life behind Cy's bed. There is a blue and gold carved 18th-century French door frame in the living room, and the kitchen tabletop is made out of marble from the old terrace behind the Museum of Modern Art. "
It's totally worth a tour, and then check out her store, which is filled with her own brand of luxury bed and table linens and silk nightwear. The article also says she's starting her own interior design company as we write.
>> The Art of the Muse (NYTimes)
>> Olatz.com
From Curbed Marketplace: Cole Valley Beauty Returns to the MLS
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, February 14, 2012, by Sally Kuchar
· 484 Roosevelt Way [Zillow]
484 Roosevelt Way, San Francisco, CA
Here now, From Curbed Marketplace, highlighting an intriguing real estate listing from the many thousands of properties found in the Curbed Marketplace. Browsing the Marketplace and spot a property worthy of being featured? Send it to the tipline.
This beautiful abode sits on a quiet street on a hill that's bordering Cole Valley, Ashbury Heights and Buena Vista Park. The 2-bed, 2-bath, 2,195 square foot home recently landed on the market with an asking price of $1,249,000. It also made several appearances on the MLS in 2009, but couldn't manage to nab a buyer. Property highlights include the interiors being packed with charm and a magical garden complete with hot tub.· 484 Roosevelt Way [Zillow]
Sunday Streets Is Back: From the Mayor's office we learn...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Sally Kuchar
From the Mayor's office we learn that the very popular Sunday Streets program will start back up again on March 11 with an event along the Embarcadero. For those unfamiliar with Sunday Streets, it's an event where streets are open to pedestrians, cyclists and people-powered wheels of all kind by temporarily removing vehicular traffic on select Sundays. There will be events on the Embarcadero, in the Mission, along the Great Highway, in Bayview, Chinatown, Western Addition and the Outer Mission/Excelsior. For a complete schedule visit SundayStreetsSF.com. [Curbed Inbox/photo via Sergio Ruiz]
Under 500K Club: Cute As a Button Tendernob One Bedroom Hits the Market
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Sally Kuchar Although broker babble tells us this listing is Downtown, we're going to have to disagree. Above Bush and below California, between Van Ness and Mason: Tendernob. Moving on… this 1-bed, 1-bath, 642 square foot condo last sold in 2008 for $470,000. Now it's back, and with a less expensive asking price: $450,000, or $701 per square foot. The building was erected in 1913 and the condo's interiors still maintain some of its original charm, like a fireplace in the bedroom and some nice built-ins. Monthly HOA dues are $359 and there's no mention of parking.
· 1155 Pine, #1 [Redfin]
1155 Pine Street, San Francisco, CA
· 1155 Pine, #1 [Redfin]
Monday, February 20, 2012
Curbed Comparisons: What You Get For $625K Around the Curbed Universe
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Rob Bear
Welcome to Curbed Comparisons, a new column that explores what set dollar amounts buy in the ever-growing list of cities that comprises the Curbed universe. Is one man's studio another man's townhouse? Let's find out!
At just $500 below the mortgage loan limits set by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, $625K is the most one can borrow these days without venturing into the more-money-down, higher-interest territory of jumbo mortgages. Keeping below that magic number, while still scoring a luxurious home, is a goal of many a homebuyer. In Chicago, $625K buys this light-filled, loft-like apartment with dazzling views of the city skyline in a modernist tower downtown. With three beds and two baths, this place looks like a deal at that price—especially considering the rooftop pool—but it's the current owner who got the real bargain: he or she paid just $270K for the space a little over a year ago.
? In our nation's capital, Washington, D.C., the tidy sum of $625K will secure this one-bed, two-bath unit in the infamous Watergate complex. As politically-motivated break-ins are on the decline, the new owners can rest easy leaving the floor-to-ceiling doors open, allowing Potomac breezes to sweep through the open living area. The decor could certainly use an update, but that terrace, with its views north into Georgetown and across the river into Virginia, makes up for any momentary headaches.
? Off to the Big Apple, where we'd expect to find some smaller spaces for this price. Surprise, this one-bedroom flat is a bit on the cramped side, with a kitchen tucked away in a closet. On the plus side, it's located in one of NYC's storied buildings, The Alden, right on Central Park West, carries a manageable (by Manhattan standards) maintenance of $1,100 per month, and comes in six grand under budget.
? It is only fitting that off-beat San Francisco would serve up today's oddest offering, with circular windows, a floating fireplace, and a strange corner skylight. With two beds and one bath, this 1981 condo offers more space than its NYC counterpart, plus an outdoor space and lovely views of the surrounding hills.
? Take $625K to Detroit and you could probably afford to buy three stunning antique mansions within the city limits. In one of the city's more prominent suburbs, Grosse Pointe Farms, it'll fetch just one, this 3,450-square-foot, five-bedroom brick mansion built in 1935. There is plenty of space to stretch out and entertain. This cute Colonial also just so happens to be located not far from the links at the Country Club of Detroit and a few blocks from the lake.
· 260 East Chestnut St [Zillow]
· 700 New Hampshire Ave NW [Zillow]
· The Alden [Elliman]
· 236 States Street [Zillow]
· 217 Merriweather Road [Zillow]
House of the Day: Remote and Pricey, This Coastal Maine Estate Still Near Perfect
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Rob Bear
Have a nomination for a jaw-dropping listing that would make a mighty fine House of the Day? Get thee to the tipline and send us your suggestions. We'd love to see what you've got.
Location: Deer Isle, Maine
Price: $12,000,000
The Skinny: Located on the lesser-known Downeast island of Deer Isle, the 54-acre estate known as Avalon may well be the finest example of rustic Maine coastal living we've ever come across. Pity, then, that it costs a hefty $12M. The location, too, could be a problem for some, as Deer Isle lies five hours by car from Boston, the nearest major population center. Known in building circles for its fine granite, which was used to construct landmark structures like the Smithsonian Institution, the US Naval Academy, and the Manhattan Bridge, the island is home to a plethora of artists, no doubt inspired by a combination of the beautiful vistas and the peace and quiet. This waterfront compound, nestled amid old growth confiers, features a shingled main house and two guest houses, totaling almost 12,000 square feet. Ten bedrooms and ten baths provide plenty of space for guests, while a deep-water dock provides instant access to the storied cruising grounds of Penobscot Bay. The modern interiors are clean, bright, and unique, without resorting to senseless opulence, and keep the rustic Maine vibe alive, even at this stratospheric price point.
· Avalon [Sotheby's]
Holding On: PG&E put out a stern warning...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, February 14, 2012, by Sally Kuchar
? Previous: Jim Denevan Interview; Chinese New Year Parade Photos; More Photos From Rincon Hill Dog Park; More!
[Public Speaking] Appraisal Institute Dinner Keynote 2-15-12
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, February 16, 2012, 8:30 AM
No Comments
I was invited to keynote the February 2012 dinner meeting for the Appraisal Institute: Long Island Chapter in Westbury, Long Island to talk about the Long Island, regional and US housing markets, the problem with housing finance, misdirection in the market etc. with an extended Q&A session. …90 minutes of valuation discussion bliss.
It was great to see friends and acquaintances, let alone be invited to speak on issues I am so passionate about. I generally rail quite a bit about our profession, but I am speaking about the 80%, largely enabled by the AMC industry. The 20% was represented by the meeting attendees who have local market knowledge and are striving to improve their craft.
It became apparent to me from attendee feedback that:
AMCs account for most residential mortgage lendingAMCs provide terrible quality valuations but bank staff are mandated to use them from aboveThe industry is aging – not much new blood is entering the profession (of course I am excluding AMC “form-filler” types called “appraisers” in name only but don’t actually appraise in my viewThe expectation of 3-5 more years of current conditions was consensusBanks are looking to expand but are not going to be easing credit anytime soonMany appraisers there were busy working on distressed and refinance property assignments, not salesAll in all, a great time. I avoided sharing my lobster story again but obliged them about turtle litigation.
[Brookings] Charting How We’re Doing Amid Policy Gridlock
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Tuesday, February 14, 2012, 6:00 AM
1 Comment
[click for full analysis]
Brookings provides a good overview of the basic economic metrics over the past 5 quarters. There’s much more on the site.
I love short succinct visuals – sort of like spark line charts in Excel. Memo to self: While I give a 5 quarter breakdown in my reports, I need to do this with my report releases.
How We’re Doing Amid Policy Gridlock [Brookings Institution]
Celebrity Real Estate: In more celeb news, the Manhattan...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Thursday, February 16, 2012, by Rob Bear
? Previous: Cold Feet
? Next: Jackson Hole's Paintbrush Ranch Offers Picture-Perfect Views
Sunday, February 19, 2012
PriceChopper: Concrete and Steel Lovers Take Notice: 2555 Union Takes a Price Chop
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Monday, February 13, 2012, by Sally Kuchar Was: $9,250,000
Now: $8,950,000
You Save: $300,000
2555 Union Street, San Francisco, CA
Now: $8,950,000
You Save: $300,000
In October of last year Curbed told you about 2555 Union, the Stanley Saitowitz-designed concrete and steel abode in Cow Hollow that had just landed on the market with a completely reasonable and obtainable price of $9.25M. And while some commenters disagreed, we still stand by our original statement that this property is a fantastic example of contemporary residential architecture, something you don't often see around these parts. The 4-bed, 3.5-bath, 6,000 square foot home has all sorts of fancy bells and whistles, like a stainless steel toilet and an elevator to all three floors. Tell us, dear readers, what'll it take for this manse to find a buyer?
· Stanley Saitowitz-Designed Concrete and Steel Fortress Could Be Yours For a Cool $9.25M [Curbed SF]
· 2555 Union [Redfin]
The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 13, 2012, 6:00 AM
12 Comments
There was a 21.2% decline in listing inventory from December 2010 to December 2011.
Relying on typical housing market scenarios and reasonable logic, a decline in listing inventory nearly always meant a tightening market was developing – fewer houses coming on line matched against steady demand meant housing prices were more likely to stabilize or rise.
Declining inventory is the variable in the housing equation that usually makes conditions improve. During the mid-decade housing boom, falling inventory was caused by the insatiable demand by buyers – product could not get out to the market fastest enough. Listing inventory was simply “worked off” by (artificially) inflated demand. Listing discounts approached zero, days on market fell to record lows and prices rose rapidly.
Old scenario: Declining Listing Inventory = declining housing prices ease their decline, prices stabilize or prices rise.
However over the last year, listing inventory fell sharply in many markets yet sales were generally anemic or showing nominal increases. In the NAR numbers, non-seasonally adjusted sales were up 1.4% year over year (using NSA since inventory is also NSA) yet inventory was down 21.2%. Inventory was clearly not declining because sales were overpowering the amount of listing inventory that was available.
Then why is inventory declining?
The answer to this question was not considered in the recent prediction of a market bottom.
New scenario: Declining Listing Inventory = fall in seller confidence and the sharp decline in distressed inventory entering the market.
From NAR…
Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 9.2 percent to 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.2-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 7.2-month supply in November.“The inventory supply suggests many markets will see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future,” Yun said. – National Association of Realtors
We are seeing unusual declines in many markets I keep tabs on such as:
Admittedly I am cherry picking some of the cities that are posting huge declines in inventory. However the problem I find in all of these markets, is that sales are only increasing a few percentage points. Not nearly enough to explain the rapid decline.
The drops are being touted as a good sign that housing is getting back on its feet. I’m not so sure.
I think the sharp drop in many US housing markets (and this has been happening for much of 2011) has to do with three key reasons:
A large swath of foreclosure volume was artificially delayed.Seller confidence has waned after the pounding it took last fall.Low interest rates extended by the Fed for the next two years have removed any sense of urgency.Declining foreclosure volume is one of the key reason inventory levels are dropping. The 1/3 decline in foreclosure volume in 2011 has resulted in a sharp drop in foreclosure inventory resulting in a sharp drop in total inventory. Distressed sales have been running at about 30% of total sales nationally for a few years but fell to about 20% in 2011. With a 2 million more homes expected to go into foreclosure over the next 2 years, a year long internal review of procedure after the 2010 “robo-signing” scandal and the 50 State AG settlement with the largest services/banks, distressed inventory is expected to rise sharply over the next several years.
Weak seller confidence is causing property not to be released into the market unless the need to sell is not optional. The 2011 home seller and buyer was bashed with the debt ceiling debate, the S&P downgrade of US debt, 400 point daily swings in the financial markets, the European debt crisis, the AG/Service settlement drama and the political stalemate on housing policy in Washington. What do people do when faced with the unknown? They sit and wait. Buyers had a lot more incentive to act with falling mortgage rates to record levels but mortgage underwriting grew tighter over the year as well.
The extension of the low interest rate policy by the Fed through the end of 2014 has obliterated any sense of urgency by sellers. I am getting a lot of feedback from real estate professionals about this as well as seeing it within my own appraisal practice. There is a lot going on the world right now and the action by the Fed suggested that they weren’t particularly encouraged by the economy. To many this may seem as an incentive for sellers to get going and sell. But many of those sellers have to buy.
The drop in inventory as a phenomenon may or may not pass quickly but one thing is clear – weird changes in market behavior happen for a reason – I don’t see declining inventory as a particular sign of strength in the housing market.
TICs in Distress: Supervisor Farrell started a discussion on...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, February 14, 2012, by Alex Bevk
Supervisor Farrell started a discussion on Tenancies-in Common today at the BOS meeting, bringing up the idea of condo lottery by-pass legislation- a one-time opportunity to pay a fee, bypass the lottery, and go straight to condo. The Mayor said he was open to the idea in principle as long as it balances need for revenue, affordable housing, and the rights of tenants who could be affected by a change in policy. He admitted that condo conversion has been contentious for a number of years, especially with the housing bubble burst and the need to preserve existing rental stock. Basically, if the legislation gets drafted, no idea is off the table. [Image via Fog City Journal]
Shameless Parking Woes: Bernalwood got its hands on a...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Sally Kuchar
? Previous: Noodle Factory Looking For a Tenant
Globe Trotting: An Immaculately Kept Vineyard in the Bordeaux Countryside
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Thursday, February 16, 2012, by Rob Bear
Located in the famous winemaking region of Bordeaux, the Château De Seguin has been owned by the Carl family since 1973. Their company, Carl Wines, supplies French wine to the American food emporium Trader Joe's, not the most glamorous of buyers, to be sure, but this magnificent property makes up for any shortcomings with the wine. Set on 430 acres of rolling countryside—230 of which are planted with grapes, including Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc vines—the château itself is a two-story white structure with pointed turrets that is dwarfed by the enormous stone winery next door, which houses the cavernous cellars. The property also includes a wine museum, reception rooms, and various outbuildings for storage, while a picturesque swimming pool and immaculate period interiors keep the owners happy with their $14.6M purchase.
· Château De Seguin [Christie's]
CurbedWire: The Ice Hotel; Huguette's Disputed Will; $88M Sale Closes
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, February 17, 2012, by Rob Bear
Photo: Architizer
SWEDEN— Ice hotels aren't exactly novel, it seems like every country with a shred of land above the Arctic Circle is home to one these days. That said, Room 339 at the ICEHOTEL has been transformed into something extra special: a blinged-out, multi-faceted approximation of a diamond, designed by French artist Antoine Weygand and architect Roland Toupet. Better hurry up and visit though, it's all set to melt away come summer. [Architizer]
NATIONAL— As might be expected with $400M at stake, distant relatives have raised a legal challenge to the last will and testament of the late copper heiress Huguette Clark. At the heart of her estate are three incomparable residences, including the largest-ever Fifth Avenue spread in NYC and a Santa Barbara mansion thought to be worth $100M. [MSNBC]
NEW YORK CITY— The sale of most expensive apartment in New York history, Stanford Weill's $88M penthouse, has closed, with ownership officially passing to a trust in the name of Ekatarina Rybolovleva, a 22-year-old college student and daughter of a Russian fertilizer billionaire. According to the Wall Street Journal, the "sale generated close to $2.5 million in city and state taxes, and produced what brokers said was a record commission on a residential sale of about $3.5 million." [WSJ]
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Historic Preservation: New Mission Theater Rehab Inches Forward, With Suds
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, February 15, 2012, by Philip Ferrato 
2554 Mission Street, San Francisco, CA
As per the SF Business Times, there's a hearing this morning at the Historic Preservation Commission to look over Gus Murad's proposal to turn his landmark New Mission Theater into a 5-screen multiplex with Alamo Drafthouse as the operator. Like all things Murad, this one's not simple, since the also plan calls for a lot split, ceding an area in the back of the building (on Bartlett Street) to the Giant Value building, which is apparently in the design phase for new condominiums at the draft EIR stage. To recap, most of the New Mission building is on Bartlett Street, and the iconic Timothy Pflueger pylon on Mission Street tops the entrance to a long hall, which then leads to an immense lobby and the once-lovely triple-tiered auditorium.
The plan is to turn the lobby into a kitchen and bar (the projectionist's booth gets to be a private room) with the main auditorium trimmed down, three small theaters in the balcony, and one in the upper balcony. All of this with full-on seismic, AD and exits, plus restoration of the Beaux-Arts interiors by the Reid Brothers in 1916 and Pflueger's Art Deco renovations from 1932. So far, all Murad and his partners are looking for is a Certificate of Appropriateness, and with a few reservations, staff recommends approval, but except for mentioning the lot split, is silent on the 95-condo development planned for the Giant Value site.
Murad bought the site from City College in 2003 and always had plans to turn it into a food/film/event venue, and an alliance with Texas-based Alamo Drafthouse continues that. There's a timeline from preservation group Friends of 1800. Unused and empty for a few years and briefly a furniture store, a group broke into the theater in March 2006 and held a rave. Some 300 people were chased out by the police and there was substantial damage, including extensive graffiti. For better or worse, the party's been immortalized on Flickr.
· Five-screen movie theater coming to Mission District? [J.K. Dineen/SF Business Times]
· Gus Murad Coverage on Curbed SF [Curbed Sf Archives]
· New Mission Theater on Curbed SF [Curbed SF Archives]
· New Mission Theater Party [kate at yr own risk/Flickr]
· New Mission Theater [Friends of 1800]
Bits Bucket for February 7, 2012
They’re in the classroom, they’re in the home, they’re in the vacation plan$, they’re in theater$, they’re on the Radio & TV & Cable & $atellite, they’re on the ipod’$ & ipad$, they’re on the kids clothe$, they’re sides of buse$ of everywhere, they’re in the parents wallet$ & they’re in the kids too! They’re the truth-tellers of human history, they’re the maintainer$ of the “Happiest Place on Earth!”
They’re here, there, everywhere!
Now they’re watching over the diseased, wounded, bleeding, coughing, crying, sick lil’ children.
Oh,my! 
(Follow-the-Crane$!)
$5 million gift to CHOC includes Disney-themed lobby:
Disney employees are designing an interactive lobby with characters.
By COURTNEY PERKES / OC Register
Published: Feb. 6, 2012
ORANGE – The Disneyland Resort announced a $5 million gift Monday to Children’s Hospital of Orange County for an expansion that will include a Disney-designed lobby.
The donation toward a 426,000-square-foot patient tower was announced with Disney music and flourish on top of a CHOC parking garage overlooking the construction site on La Veta Avenue in Orange. Mickey Mouse, wearing a tuxedo, blew a kiss to Kim Cripe, chief executive of the hospital.
In addition to giving money toward the $560 million expansion, about a dozen Disney employees are designing an interactive lobby that will include characters. Disney created a lobby last year for Florida Hospital for Children in Orlando.
“This is just perfectly aligned,” said George Kalogridis, president of Disneyland Resort and a member of the CHOC board. “We love, of course, to entertain children. The majority of our philanthropic efforts are centered on children.”
The gift from Disney is CHOC’s third largest in a $125 million fundraising campaign.
Last year, CHOC received $30 million, the largest in its history, from the estate of Robert Tidwell, a retired investment banker living in Garden Grove. Tidwell’s only previous donation had been a used computer. The hospital also received $10 million from Hyundai for cancer care.
(But vaaaaait, there’$ more) 
Mo$t of the funding will come from operating income, loan$ and more than $150 million from two $tate ballot measure$ that i$$ued bond$ for children’$ hospital$.
(I hope the Looney Tunes characters get in on this act, just think of all the oppoortunitie$:
Mental ho$pital$, the Congre$$, the $upreme Court, the $enate, the White Hou$e, … Why just the other day they had the Warner Bro$ boyz over at the $imthsonian opening a new theater, $imply $aturating darling…$imply $aturating, $oak it up folks!)
Ask Curbed SF: What's Up With the Belli Building in Jackson Square?
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, February 7, 2012, by Alex Bevk A curious reader asks:
I was walking down Hotaling place in Jackson Square and noticed renewed construction on the Belli Building. Do you know what will come of it? Will it be more condos?
Looks like work has indeed resumed on the project at 722-728 Montgomery Street, better known as the Belli and Genella Buildings. Originally built in 1851, the buildings are both city historic landmarks and previously operated as a cigar warehouse, theatre, and public bath house (not all at the same time, of course). Famed/infamous SF attorney Melvin Belli bought and restored the properties in 1958, but they fell into major disrepair after he died in 1996. A project was approved back in August 2007 for a 12 residential and 5 commercial condo conversion out of the old office space, but due to some...financial issues with Belli's widow, the property was sold and the project stalled. It wasn't until December 2010 that building permits were finally filed to complete the work. According to the permits, the upper two floors will be converted into the residential units, with commercial space below.
· Previous "Ask Curbed SF" [Curbed SF Archives]
· Historic Landmark Listing for Belli Building [SF Planning]
· Belli’s Barbary Coast (And At One Time) Belle Of A Building [SocketSite]
· Historic Landmark Listing for Genella Building [SF Planning]
Federal Blockbusters : By the Numbers: the New $26B Homeowners Settlement
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Thursday, February 9, 2012, by Sarah Firshein
Graphic via the New York Times; click to expand!
In negotiations that lasted past midnight last night, five banks—Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Ally Financial—agreed to a $26B settlement designed to relieve 2M homeowners from mortgage debt. While some are saying the figure isn't nearly enough—and certainly not a Panacea, according to one Barclays analyst—others view the unprecedented deal as a step in the right direction. It's about "righting the wrongs that led to the housing market collapse,” said U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder. “With this settlement, we recover precious taxpayer resources, fix a broken system and lay a groundwork for a better future.” The chart above visually maps out the settlement, and here's a breakdown by the numbers:
Of the $26B:
· $5B paid to states and federal authorities
· $17B paid to homeowners
· $3B allocated for refinancing
· $1B paid to the Federal Housing Administration
Settlement will be distributed over three years and:
· 1M homeowners will have reduced mortgage debt or will able to refinance.
· 750K people who have lost their homes to foreclosure (Jan. 2008 through 2011) will receive $2K each.
· More than 46,000 people in New York State will benefit; of those, 21,000 will owe less on their homes.
· Average aid to homeowners: $20K.
General stats:
· 1 in 5 Americans are owe more on their homes than their homes are worth.
· Average of $50,000 underwater each.
· Collective negative equity equals $700B.
· Settlement Worth $26 Billion Reached for Homeowners [New York Times]
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