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Landlords Are Back in Control

No one is in control

You can't control a sinking ship.

Recently the New York Times announced that the worm has turned for landlords.

TO the chagrin of many renters in New York City, the balance of power in the rental market has tipped back toward landlords — if not far enough for landlords to start celebrating quite yet.
At the beginning of the year, renters could demand and receive a month of free rent and maybe even get the landlord to pay their broker’s fees. Those concessions, now the exception rather than the rule, are mainly found in brand-new apartment towers whose owners are hoping to fill them quickly. Overall vacancy rates are again hovering around 1 percent, where they were during the boom. Some landlords have started to push for rent increases.

But it is not because of improvements in the rental market.

The true reason is that landlords are very aware of the current economic situation.

The New York City Independent Budget Office has projected slow employment growth in the city through 2011 and does not anticipate a return to pre-downturn levels until mid-2013.
The budget office’s data on the size of the city’s labor force, which includes everyone who is employed or looking for work, also mirror the strengthening rental market earlier in 2010 and the recent weakening. The size of the labor force had dropped through most of 2009 and had finally started to grow again in February 2010, approaching 4 million people. But the number fell by 14,000 in July, and in August grew by only about 2,000. (In August 2008, the last month before the economic meltdown, the city’s labor force grew by 7,500.)
Landlords who were emboldened to stop offering rental concessions earlier in the year “maybe were sensing the jobs picture improving and may have been reacting to that,” said Doug Turetsky, a spokesman for the budget office. The growing vacancy rate in August may also be a reaction to the falloff in the labor force in July, he said.

The reason why landlords were rolling out the red carpet and champagne for renters was that they needed to boost up their tenant base. The objective was to lock in as many people as possible and then pull the red carpet and end the party. And when renters realized that they can't go elsewhere because there are no deals out there and they were better off staying put.

What landlords are doing is textbook accounting. They are increasing their revenue, which is their rent and cutting back on their expenses which are all the concessions they presented in the past.

If you think they are being greedy or taking advantage of renters, they are not. They are actually scared out of their minds.

Job Loss Looms as Part of Stimulus Act Expires

Tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs within weeks unless Congress extends one of the more effective job-creating programs in the $787 billion stimulus act: a $1 billion New Deal-style program that directly paid the salaries of unemployed people so they could get jobs in government, at nonprofit organizations and at many small businesses.

Analyst: Wall St. layoff wave coming in '11

Pink slips will be coming back into fashion next year on Wall Street, one banking analyst is forecasting.
Meredith Whitney, whose reports trumpeting hard times for US banks were stunningly on target as early as 2007, said financial services firms could see as many as 80,000 job losses, or about 10 percent of current payrolls in the sector, between now and early 2012.
"Over the next 18 months, Wall Street will go through yet another iteration of resizing not seen since the post-dotcom era," Whitney recently told clients of her eponymous research firm, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group.

It is a simple equation. If you do not have a job, you are not going to be able to pay the rent let alone look for an apartment.

How New York City landlords are acting is a bell weather of the future of our economy and it should not be taken lightly.

All these developments probably explain my inbox getting carpet bombed with ads from Property Campaign.

Pendulum or noose?

Celebrity Decor: To Assert Manliness, Adam Carolla Tapes Up Pics of Nude Women

Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Friday, December 17, 2010, by Sarah

Things that have us at hello: well, there's a whole bunch, but a headline proclaiming "Adam Carolla, Interior Decorator" is most certainly one of them. In a story in the Journal today, the 1920s Los Angeles home of the comedian and former Man Show host is put under the microscope. Bacterial findings: eight-car garage with its own beer cooler and hydraulic lift; a fridge, microwave, and dishwasher painted with red auto paint and then waxed; and a basement man cave with red upholstered bar seats and playing cards depicting naked women taped to the ceiling. Interestingly, the "soft blue periwinkle-and-cream-colored décor of the home's bedroom" was also Carolla's idea. Softie!

· Adam Carolla: Interior Decorator [WSJ]
· All man cave coverage [Curbed National]

Globe Trotting: Confusion About Where Julian Assange Will Hide Out

Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Thursday, December 16, 2010, by Sarah

There seems to be some disagreement about where the recently out-on-bail WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange will spend his time on house arrest. We know that the residence is called Ellingham Hall, and that it belongs to one of Assange's supporters, writer Vaughan Smith. We also know that it's a 10-bedroom estate set on 600 acres on the border of Norfolk and Suffolk, England. Yet Forbes reports that the residence is the one shown above, at left, which other media outlets have mistaken for the one on the right. Here's the confusion: Ellingham Hall is also the name of a grandiose wedding and event space, in Northumberland, England, and photos can be viewed here. Something tells us Assange has far bigger things to worry about than satin-slipcovered chairs.
· Julian Assange Leaves Jail, Moves Into 600-Acre Estate (Photos) [Forbes]
· Julian Assange Gets Bail, Retreats to "Manor Arrest" [NYO]
· Ellingham Hall [official site]

TEXAS IS THE REASON - Commemorative 10 - Brown T-shirt

Brand New, never worn, front print Brown Authentic TEXAS IS THE REASON T-shirt.

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Jump Start Real Estate Investing

Step by step tutorials for new real estate investors

Check it out!

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Holiday Trimmings: Capital City Flies in NYC-Based Designer to Deck the Halls

The nation's capital is trying to show that it can decorate like the best of 'em, what with the newly dressed rooms on the eighth floor of the State Department building. As part of a collab with InStyle Magazine, designer David Stark was brought in to give historic spaces such as the (above, top to bottom) Thomas Jefferson State Reception Room, James Monroe Reception Room, and John Quincy Adams State Drawing Room a pretty, albeit pretty run-of-the-mill, seasonal makeover. Err, not to bring up a recent sore spot for the Capitol City but, uh, Stark so happens to be based in NYC.

· State Department Shows Off Holiday Decor [Politico]
· Dear New York: We get it. Your restaurants are better than ours. [WaPo]

Orange Electronic P409S Retrofit Tire Pressure Monitoring System

The Orange Electronics Retrofit Tire Pressure System continually monitors tire pressure in all four wheels, and helps provide a safer ride. This kit has been designed for vehicles that did not come with a factory tire pressure monitoring kit. The sensors feature a military specification lithium-ion battery with a projected 5 to 7 year battery life. All sensors come complete with a unique valve stem assembly which incorporates a ball joint fitting allowing the sensor to be positioned in the optimum location to prevent any potential damage in service. All sensors are guaranteed 100 percent compatible with the vehicle.

Price: $179.00

Deed To Death

Real estate agent Toni Matthew's problems begin when her fiancé, Scott, is murdered. Having to bury the man she loves on the very day they planned to be married is almost more than Toni can take. Dealing with her loss becomes even harder when Scott's estranged brother, Brian, contests the will, threatening to take away her home.

After learning Brian is in deep financial trouble, Toni suspects he may be the one who killed Scott. Determined to find the truth and frustrated with the police, she begins her own investigation. Toni soon realizes she didn't know her fiancé quite as well as she had thought. Scott had been keeping secrets. Secrets that make Toni the killer's next target.

A lean, fast-paced thriller.

Approximately 78,000 words. Print Length - 311 pages.

Price: $0.99

Bits Bucket For December 16, 2010

“You know, a lot of people seem to have a ‘real problem’ that stands above all the other problems, or is the root of all the others.”

I understand what you are saying Ben, but I will counter. Did all our economic ills begin in 2003 with the housing boom?

Or, perhaps were there problems pre-2003. We the junk bond bubble, the S&L collapse, the tech bubble and tech wreck problems? If so, was there something going on that caused them?

Did consumer debt explosion begin in 2003 with the housing bubble? Total household debt in the USA in 1980 was $1.4T. 2003 it was $9.5T. Inflation adjustment for CPI is 77.8->181.7 = 2.3. Population adjustment is 227 million -> 294 million = 1.3.

So, sustainable rate of household debt growth based on population and inflation would have had debt go from $1.4T in 1980 to $1.4Tx2.3×1.3=$4.2. That is an increase of $2.4T. Actual increase based on actual dept of $9.5T = $8.1T.

Therefore, consumer debt was increasing at 3.4x the sustainable rate from 1980 to 2003, pre-housing bubble.

You get only slightly smaller numbers if you look at business debt.

The debt explosion was not the result of the housing bubble. The housing bubble was not the first in our long series of asset price bubbles.

What happend in the 1970s that caused us to turn to debt to maintain our standard of living?

I’ve looked very hard, and the one thing I can come up with is that for the first time in our history, we became a net import nation.

To maintain our standard of living in the face of low global wages that sucked away jobs and created a massive leak in teh economy know as trade deficits, we turned to debt.

For 40 years we relied on ever more debt issued at ever lower rates and with ever looser lending stantards.

Eventually that solution will result in too much debt even at near 0% interest rates, a point that interest rates can’t be pushed lower, and a situation where lending standard are so lose that fraud is the norm instead of the exception and we have no choice but to tighten lending standards. I think we reached that point in 2006.

I think the end game of the debt based economy is at hand, as soon as our massive federal deficits result in loss of confidence and higher treasury interest rates, our federal government will no longer be able to be the borrower of last resort….

We will have to stop living on debt, meaning we have to stop the tread deficits, meaning we have to deal with the reality that our wages are not competative in the face of global labor competition.

Maybe I still don’t have the real “root cause”, but I think I’m a lot closer than “we turned away from God” which I think you only presented as a straw man anyway.

Defeating “turning away from God” as the potential root cause does not defeat other possible root causes like low global wages, job offshoring, trade deficits, and using massive debt growth to maintain our standard of living in the face of all of the above.

Kenneth Cole REACTION Men's Real Estate Boot

A great little slip-on for everyday wear. High-styling, fashionable footwear rarely comes in forms this simple. Kenneth Cole Reaction's Men's Real Estate Boots are dressy enough for a day at the office and easy enough to just pull on in the morning as you head out the door The soft, full-grain leather upper has a square toe and visible stitching for a contemporary, moccasin-inspired style. Smooth leather lining and a cushioned insole provide comfort all day long. A durable rubber outsole offers traction, and the 1" heel gives you just the touch of elegance you need to set off your look.

Price: $114.95

On The Market: A Million-Five Will Keep Memories of Metropolitan Home Alive

Just looking at the cover above, RIP Metropolitan Home, gets us a little misty-eyed. When Hachette Filipacchi shuttered the pub last year, many feared that modern design was on the verge of being obliterated from national shelter media stage. Luckily for the worried, our cousins at Curbed SF bring news that the magazine's 2009 Met Home of the Year has just hit the market for $1.595M. Located on the Berkeley and Oakland border in California, the residence, from Cantilever Design, boasts a whole slew of pricey midcentury furnishings from the houses of Mies van der Rohe and Eames. It may be worth bargaining up to get the place furnished; have a look at the listing photos below.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Yes. There will be a new season.

Among the many truths that have been confirmed to me this past year is that time is finite and bad things happen to good people.

Fortunately all is well with me and my family.

However it has made me think very closely about what the next stage of this blog will be.As I have stated before new developments have presented themselves to me which puts this blog on the lower priority list.

I really enjoy working on this blog and I do have plans on elevating it. It is just that there are other issues that I need to deal with at this time.

Housing Recovery: Faith or Just a Good Deal?

Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis

The Sims 2: Open for Business Expansion Pack

In Sims 2: Open For Business you'll get to design your own clothing boutique, beauty salon, florist, high-end electronics shop, bustling restaurant chain, or virtually any other type of business. Hire your staff as the business grows and put talented Sims to work making toys, running the register, crafting floral bouquets, giving sales pitches, or manufacturing robots. But watch out for slacker employees and be prepared to fire them on the spot. Will you build a thriving business empire or become an eccentric entrepreneur designing the next big thing? Over 125 new items for your Sims' business - Everything from display cases and beauty salon chair, to workbenches and cash registers

Price: $19.99

Gift Guide 2010: Kelly Hoppen's Pick: Calfskin iPad Sleeve by Smythson

'Tis the season, folks, for the age-old tradition of shopping! Welcome to Curbed's 2010 Gift Guide Advent Calendar, where every day from now 'til Christmas a different design-world player will recommend one home- or decor-related gift, from the reasonable to the outrageous and everything in between. Click the graphic below to unveil today's pick, and as the holidays draw nearer check out the whole kit 'n' caboodle. Here's to all things merry and bright.

Calfskin iPad sleeve in Magenta, from $280, Smythson of Bond Street.
· Kelly Hoppen [official site]

Real Estate Agents List Reo Property

Reo Real Estate Agents Wanted! Bank Reo Departments need Real Estate Agents To List and Sell Reo Property and Complete Broker Price Opinion

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

[Freddie Mac] Payment Calculator Now Allows For Price Declines

I sent out a twitter post on this last night, but I was so overwhelmed with a sense of irony (or desperate to quench my thirst after that the dry muffin I had for breakfast) that I felt the need to include it here via my morning commuter train ride.

NPR/@planetmoney had a short piece on our burning housing question: Rent Or Buy? Freddie Finally Fixes Calculator.

Until now, the calculator had a fundamental (and revealing) flaw: It assumed home prices could never fall.

The economist who used to work at Freddie Mac, apologized saying:

“I’m sorry that I didn’t send an e-mail or work a little harder to get that fixed so the calculator can allow for the possibility of reality,”

Now apparently, it does…proving once again that it is the little details in life that keep us entertained.

Check it out.

The Fall of Greece: October 2010

Looking at the most recent OECD economic indicators, Greece makes by far the weakest showing in all the Eurozone appearing to have clearly collapsed into recession.

Industrial production remains in severe contraction territory, consumer has fallen off a cliff, business confidence though trending up is clearly depressed and the leading index is turning down fast dropping 0.02% since September and 6.49% below the level seen in October 2009.

For November (more timely data), consumer confidence declined 0.21% since October dropping 6.54% below the level seen in November 2009 while business confidence increased from October and remained 0.57% above the level seen in November 2009.

Industrial production remains weak but jumped a whopping 5.20% since July (much less timely data) remaining near the lowest levels seen since the late 1990s.

Labels: economy, greece, recession

We will never forget

9 years ago everything changed. posted by Grunt at 9:53 AM

Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.

IEIF France and European Property Prices: November 2010

One of the most interesting and damming bits of evidence that tipped many off to the existence of a significant real estate bubble during the early 2000s was the fact that dramatically increasing property prices were occurring in most industrialized nations.

The U.S., U.K., France, Ireland, most of continental Europe, Canada, Australia and elsewhere were all simultaneously experiencing significant property booms thereby thwarting, more or less, many of the “limited supply” and “Superstar Cities” arguments that sought to justify individual regions explosive appreciation.

Today we know that this massive boom in real estate was more a function of financialization and credit availability rather than fundamentals.

The latest data from the Institut de l'Epargne Immobilière et Foncière (IEIF), a French research and analysis firm, suggests that property prices in France and Europe declined during most of November but now appear to be climbing a bit and continuing to increase at annual rate of about 11%.

Labels: economy, france, property prices

Sunny Day Real Estate: Live [VHS]

Often heralded as one of the best vocalists in Country Music today, Daryle Singletary has enjoyed a long lasting relationship with his fans, his country music family and country radio. Daryle has unmistakably stamped his baritone vocals onto the hearts and souls of his peers in the business and his legion of fans. This album is his first new music release, with 8 new songs, in almost a decade.

Price: $19.98

The Year's Most Expensive Listings: Today Luxist presents the 10 most...

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Monday, December 27, 2010

Lilly Pulitzer Home-Goods Expansion Approaching: Fire up those Hamptons Luxury Liners:...

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U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide November 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal that the recent up-trend seen in U.K. home prices may be drawing to a close.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined since October dropping 0.6% and remaining just 0.39% above the level seen last year while the “Halifax” series declined by a whopping 1.25% since October and falling 2.42% below the level seen in November 2009.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

Labels: economy, halifax, nationwide, uk home prices

ST JOSEPH statue HOME SELLER selling Kit saint house figurine

Trouble Selling Your Home?
It may be because you haven't buried a statue of St. Joseph in your front yard! Legend has it, that if you bury him upside down near the "For Sale" sign, in the back yard, or in a flower pot, and then say a little prayer (one is included with your purchase for a little guidance), then your house will sell! Couldn't hurt, right?

Even if you are not in the market to sell, this is a beautiful little resin statue that can be proudly displayed in your home or office. Highly detailed and fabulous coloring. 5" high.

Also included with your underground realtor:

Story of St. Joseph
Saint Card with illustrated picture and prayer
Step-by-step instructions for planting

Price:

Marcel Wanders Expands to Cosmetics Design: Industrial and interior designer Marcel Wanders...

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Christmas Ornament Becomes Security Threat in D.C. Metro: In Washington, D.C., blinking lights in...

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Real Estate

Real Estate waft in on vibes of hazy summers past.ÊThe New Jersey quartet of Martin Courtney IV, Matthew Mondanile III (DUCKTAILS), Etienne Pierre Duguay & Alex Bleeker cut the sleeves short & the pop smooth to shade you from the midday heat.ÊEvery song works its way to that part of your consciousness that reveled in the fleeting waves of freedom that eked in once classes broke & the sun lingered a little longer over suburban roofs. It's no surprise that a bit of Jersey indie-pop heritage sneaks its way into their sound, lifting the most sun streaked moments from The Feelies & Yo La Tengo & filtering them through the kaleidoscope of memories aimless drives through parched neighborhood streets

Price: $14.98

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Foreclosure Freeze to Chill Spring Housing

The effects of the so-called "Robo-signing" scandal showed up in drastic numbers in a new report today from RealtyTrac. The number of properties receiving some kind of foreclosure filing fell 21 percent month to month and 14 percent year over year. It was the biggest monthly drop in the history of the survey. And while bank repossessions, a component of those filings, fell 28 percent month to month, the number still managed to push 2010 totals over 2009 with one month to spare. A new record number of borrowers lost their homes to banks this year, more than 980,000 so far.

Foreclosures fell 21 percent in November from the previous month and 14.4 percent from the year before, according to foreclosure tracking web site RealtyTrac. We will break a million for sure for the year.

Big banks have already re-started the foreclosure process, of course with "new safeguards," new forms" and "increased training efforts and personnel." That means the numbers will rise again, and all those frozen foreclosures will be back in the game along with new ones.

"There are five million loans that are seriously delinquent right now and not yet in foreclosure. A large, large number of those will hit the foreclosure pipeline next year. So 2011 is probably going to be a little bit worse that 2010 was," estimates RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga.

A lot of housing watchers have been looking to the Spring market for signs of new life again in housing. The argument goes that home prices are low, demand is high, and the economy is slowly beginning to improve. All of those are true, but the headwinds are picking up speed again.

Last night the Bankrate.com overnight average on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 5.19 percent. We were at 4.24 percent barely two months ago. Depending on who you ask, that jump in rates will add anywhere from 6 to 9 percent to the price of a home. That takes away significant purchasing power.

Home prices are low, but they're going lower. CoreLogic [CLGX Loading... () ] today reported home prices nationwide fell for the third month in a row in October, down 3.93 percent year over year if you include sales of distressed properties, which are a big chunk of the sales market. Home prices are so low now that the big builders are having trouble keeping up.

"The builders’ piece of the pie is shrinking due to their reluctance to cut pricing enough to effectively compete with the existing home market," notes Dan Oppenheim over at Credit Suisse. "We estimate new home sales will represent just 7 percent of total single-family home sales in 2010, similar to the 8 percent in 2009, but far less than the 17 percent historically. This underscores the gap between new and existing home prices, and suggests builders will need to lower prices/increase incentives if they hope to regain volume next year."

Falling home prices for new and existing homes will spark better buying opportunities, but they will also fuel more fears of fence-sitters, worried that they will catch a falling knife by buying a home. Lower prices will also put more borrowers underwater on their homes (I talked about the effect that has on buying power in yesterday's blog) and make some sellers unable to get the cash they need to move up.

And then there are those foreclosure numbers I noted up top.

When the big banks ramp up the process again, as they did over the summer when we saw repossessions top a record 100,000 in one month, we will see another surge in inventory of homes for sale, and many at distressed prices.

Investor demand for those properties exists, but I'm not sure there are really enough all-cash investors out there to make the dent we need.

All this as we head toward Spring, and as the government takes up housing finance in the meantime.

Questions? Comments? document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

99ers and the Continual Decline

Reading through the comments trailing this article and posted at this website it is nearly impossible not to feel concerned for the plight of the millions of long term unemployed that appear to be sinking deeper with each passing day.

Worse yet, the economy is not going to be able to absorb these folks any time soon as historically weak hiring and the tarnish of multiple years of unemployment work to morph these poor souls from productive workers into a class of downtrodden and financially wrecked individuals with defunct skills.

Yet, what really is the obligation of the federal and state governments to mitigate the pain associated to the adjustments taking place in our macro-economy?

With the latest unemployment extension costing over $85 billion for just thirteen more months of long term benefits (excluding those that have exhausted their benefits at 99 weeks… the 99ers), the roughly $70 billion the feds dole out for food-stamps, and the hundreds of billions spent on all the other “safety net” policies, the government and the public needs to face a harsh truth.

With a downshifting economy, greater competition from emerging economies and the demographic nightmare of boomer retirement, hard choices will have to be made concerning the plight of those that will inevitably slide back down the wealth scale.

Is the role of government to artificially prop the gains made by generations of the middle class even when the trends have turned against them? ... even when the steps taken to lessen the pain are just temporary and inevitably hopeless?

The “99ers” provide a clear insight into this dilemma.

Those that have been unemployed for 99 weeks or longer are effectively in critical condition desperately hanging on for some sign of the return of their prior healthy self.

But sadly for many (maybe most) the future only holds a deeper despair as many face the prospect of significant career and lifestyle demotions, dashed plans and disappointments.

Any further assistance might bide some time, but as the macro-trends turn further against a generation, no amount of subsidies will bring back the past. Labels: economy, full time unemployment

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 09 2010

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as a declining trend shaped up for initial claims and traditional continued claims continued to trend down.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment declined by 17,000 to 421,000 claims from last week’s revised 438,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 191,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 3.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 4.5 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.66 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 8.17 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

The following chart shows the recent trend in initial non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims with the year-over-year percent change acting as a rough equivalent of a seasonally adjustment.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart shows “population adjusted” continued claims (ratio of unemployment claims to the non-institutional population) and the unemployment rate since 1967.

Adjusting for the general increase in population tames the continued claims spike down a bit.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967.

Also, acceleration and deceleration of unemployment claims has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 – 8 months (click for larger version).

Labels: economy, initial jobless claims, unemployment

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Real Estate Foreclosure Short Sale Course Reveals from beginning to end how to short sale a property. Often Advertised. Rarely Delivered.

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What $700K Will Get You:: A two-bedroom house in the Hollywood...

The New “Household” Misery Index: October 2010

Back in the 1970s and 80s the “Misery Index” was popularized as a measure that accurately captured the misery and malaise of the time.

The original Misery Index was a bit too simplistic as it only captured the severity of the two main vexing issues of the time, unemployment and inflation.

Today, inflation, as measured by the annual rate of change of the CPI-U, is not a significant source of financial misery.

Of course, households on fixed income may dispute that fact and many have argued that CPI itself does not accurately capture “real” inflation as it has never accounted for the ridiculous increasing costs of housing and other essentials so for the sake of formulating a new misery index, inflation will factored out.

Another key to formulating a new misery index is to specifically target “household” misery as opposed to including data that might target the miserable state of affairs of the federal government or corporate misery.

The Household Misery Index captures the following trends and weights them equally:

1. The U-3 unemployment rate
2. YOY percent change of the 10-Year moving average of total nonfarm payrolls
3. YOY percent change of the 10-Year moving average of “real” personal income
4. YOY percent change of the 10-year moving average of “real” S&P 500

The unemployment rate captures the misery associated to the threat and severity of a potential bout of unemployment while the annual change of the 10 year moving average of non-farm payrolls captures a more fundamental sense of the overall job market.

The annual change to the 10 year moving average of “real” (adjusted with CPI-U) personal income captures a household’s long term sense of income prospects.

The annual change to the 10 year moving average of “real” (adjusted with CPI-U) S&P 500 captures a household’s long term sense of typical investment prospects.

Unfortunately, all home price series are simply not long enough to include in the formulation but there may be alternative measures that can be included in the future.

The level of misery in October increased 0.01% since September and remained near the peak for this cycle and nearly the highest level seen in 30 years while on a year-over-year basis, misery climbed 0.05%.

Labels: economy, misery index

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Magazine Living: Size Matters

The all-American characters of Gary and Elaine have wormed their way into households and hearts aplenty thanks to the ingenuity of Molly Erdman, whose Catalog Living blog points to certain styling curiosities within catalogs. We enlisted Erdman to author a Curbed National column in which she does the same to photos gracing the glossy pages of shelter magazines. Here now, let the games begin.

Photo by William Waldron/Elle Decor

Eyeing the arrangement on the table, Martin could only assume that Gareth had done something really wrong.

· Catalog Living [official site]
· All Magazine Living columns [Curbed National]

Celebrity Real Estate: Houses of Hip-Hop Powerhouses: Kanye, Diddy, Pharrell, More!

Screen-shot-2010-12-15-at-9.32.54-AM.jpg
Photo: Todd Selby

Yesterday, photographer extraordinaire Todd Selby presented a full photogallery of hiphop musician/producer Pharrell Williams's $14M penthouse in Miami, Fla. Filled with cartoonish sculptures, graphic art, and Louis Vuitton paraphernalia, the space befits someone who's completely obsessed with modern design—and who even creates some of it himself. Selby's work prompted us to go back and explore the real estate wheelings and dealings of some of Pharrell's hip-hop cohorts: what they've bought, what they've sold, and where they live.

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Sean "Diddy" Combs enlisted the knowhow of celebrity designer Benjamin Noriega-Ortiz to dress his newest NYC digs (above) with modern furnishings in a silvery, neutral palette. Perhaps the soothing interiors calm the chaos left over from Combs's storied and rather tenous series of past real estate-related transactions in the Big Apple.

While Kanye West has expressed a deep love of baroque furnishings and decor on his Twitter feed, the Hollywood apartment he recently listed for close to $4M tells the story of a different aesthetic altogether (above). Like, say, Jetsons art and computer-controlled everything. Oh, and a painting of West depicted as an angel on the dining room ceiling.

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Now that Li'L Wayne has been released from Riker's Island, he can finally make use of his $14M modern (above) on La Gorce, a private island off Miami. Quite an upgrade from being behind bars.

While he's never actually lived in the modest digs, unofficial Chicago spokesperson Common is renting out his two-bedroom investment apartment for a reasonable $2,500 a month (above). He purchased the unit for $402K a couple of years ago; it's his second purchase in the building. Now there's a reason to get chummy with the landlord.

· Pharrell Williams [The Selby]
· May We Remind You That Pharrell Williams Designs Furniture? [Curbed National]
· P. Diddy Sells [NYO]
· The Endless Design- and Decor-Related Tweets of Kanye West [Curbed National]
· Kanye West's Computer-Controlled Hollywood Home [Curbed LA]
· For Sale: Kanye's House [NYMag]
· HOUSE PORN OF THE DAY: Lil Wayne's $14 Million Dollar La Gorce Mansion [Business Insider]
· Rapper Common Renting Out Museum Park Condo [Chicago Breaking Business]
· Common Puts South Loop Condo Up for Rent [Curbed Chicago]

Index of Stress: December 2010

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis recently began publishing a new weekly index that seeks to track the general level of financial stress.

As periods of financial stress come and go a whole host of fundamental economic indicators immediately adjust to meet the near and long term expectations of market participants

Interest rates, yields spreads, popular market volatility indices all move in real time giving observers unequivocal evidence of changes general sentiment.

The St. Louis Fed has devised a method of crunching eighteen of these sensitive indices down into one convenient index it calls the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI).

The latest results of the STLFSI indicate that the level of financial stress has remained largly flat in the last few weeks hovering at a level of .35 at since mid-October.

Labels: economy, financial stress