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Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

[Wonkmatrix] NY Fed Shows NYC Economy Beginning To Slip?

The New York Fed publishes a coincident index using data on employment, real earnings, the unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing and its beginning to show nominal weakness. This comes out monthly so I’ll keep an eye on it.

It’s not a lagging indicator like consumer confidence or a leading indicator like building permits. Coincident is closer to what is happening now, or it least that is what my economist friends tell me.

In October, the New York City Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased at an annual rate of 0.4%, following a 0.1% increase in September. The index has risen 2.4% over the past year.

Since NYC housing’s future in the region partially depends on where the regional economy is going (it’s not all about foreign buyers), this suggests the NYC economy slipped a bit last month but is better than last year.


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Thursday, October 27, 2011

How To Get The Pyramid Economy Cranking Again

Readers suggested a topic on the latest government housing proposals. “What about the proposal to save the U.S. housing market by offering foreign investors a sweet deal on obtaining a Visa?”

A reply, “If we are serious about scamming these marks, give them automatic dual citizenship, so we can tax all their overseas earnings. Doesn’t Congress have any serious work to do?”

Another wrote, “Need more people to get the pyramid economy cranking again. Bring in new blood since the natives have been bled dry.”

One said, “The thing is that in so many foreign countries things aren’t so rosy: kidnappings, riots, drug lords, etc. A lot of people want to emigrate someplace where it’s still ’safe’. My brother got his engineering degree at ITESM in Mexico (Mexico’s top engineering school). He told me the other day that the majority of his classmates managed to get themselves trasferred to the USA by their multinational employer (I have a cousin who is trying to do that right now).”

“Being middle to upper middle class in Mexico means have a big fat bullseye on your back. You aren’t wealthy enough to afford bodyguards but rich enough to pay a ransom. Memo to American cubicle dwellers: coming soon to your neighborhood.”

And this, “Has anyone come up with any vibrant new solutions to fixing the U.S. housing market, or are we collectively stuck with the same tired old neo-Keynesian proposals over the foreseeable time horizon?”

Finally, “It’s about the jobs, plain and simple. And there’s no fix for that, without stopping the outsourcing, and ending illegal immigration. And since illegal immigration and outsourcing are favored by the 1%ers, it means that there is no fix.”

The Wall Street Journal. “About four years ago, as the housing bust worsened, our country faced an entirely predictable problem: A huge wave of foreclosures was headed our way. The issue of the day was how to stop it before it engulfed the entire economy. My suggestion then was to revive the Depression-era Home Owners’ Loan Corporation, which refinanced about a tenth of all the mortgages in America and closed its books with a small profit. Never mind the details; the suggestion was ignored. Maybe there were better ideas, anyway.”

“Sadly, however, we did almost nothing to stop the predicted foreclosure wave, which is now drowning us. The issue at this late date is how we can mitigate the damage. One oft-repeated answer comes from the intellectual descendants of Andrew Mellon and Herbert Spencer: liquidate, liquidate, liquidate. Let the housing market find its natural bottom, and the chips fall where they may.”

“I beg to differ. Some of the reasons are humanitarian. Millions of foreclosures are ruining millions of lives and devastating many communities. We can do better than Social Darwinism.”



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Friday, February 4, 2011

<b>Real Estate</b>, Economy and Recovery: Commercial <b>Real Estate</b> Rallies <b>...</b>

Forgive me for being ever so slightly optimistic two days in a row, but we're getting some improving numbers on the commercial real estate market, and it's worth noting.

Yes, delinquencies in commercial mortgage backed securities are still rising and still a big headwind, and yes trophy properties in the big markets are faring far better than second and third tier markets.

I'm not saying it's on fire, but it's on the upswing.

Today I heard from two experts in the sector who seemed quite bullish. First, Sam Chandan of Real Capital Analytics. Next week he will put out a report saying that 2010 saw $115 billion in commercial real estate transaction volume, up from $54.6 billion in 2009 (up 111 percent!).

Chandan: "Commercial real estate investment momentum has been building through the year, culminating in December in the strongest monthly sales activity since 2007. Apart from firming pricing, investors have been supported in recent months by a sharp improvement in credit availability and indications of more stable property fundamentals. There are still real challenges ahead of us, such as the management of legacy distress and risks from rising interest rates, but the tailwinds are clearly pushing investment forward on the path to normalization."

Also today on CNBC's Street Signs, Erin Burnett interviewed Quintin Primo, Chairman of Capri Capital, who says there is a great play in investing in distressed commercial real estate assets. He says returns should be 5-8 percent as long as you stay in the primary markets where "prices have firmed."

He is also quite bullish on the apartment sector, citing 3 million new renters since 2004 and growing. "The stigma about renting has changed dramatically in this country," Primo notes, adding that the home ownership rate has dropped from 69 percent to 67 percent. He thinks even with a housing recovery, which will be slow, the rental market will remain strong.

Questions?  Comments?  document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

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