[Sandy] 4Q 2011 Hamptons/North Fork Sales + 2002-2011 Hamptons/North Fork Decade Reports

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, January 26, 2012, 11:40 AM
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We released our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2011 this morning. I’ve been authoring this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

We also published a companion report, The Hamptons & North Fork Decade 2002-2011 with a revised format, to lay out out the market in context over an expanded window of time.

Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2011 report:

There were 541 sales in the fourth quarter, 0.6% more than 538 sales in the prior year quarter and prior quarter. The level of sales remained above the 5-year average of 484 sales. Despite the relative stability of sales, the number of available listings fell sharply. There were 1,728 listings available at the end of the fourth quarter, 25% less than 2,303 listings at the end of the same quarter last year.

Despite the decline in listing inventory and stability of sales, days on market and listing discount expanded over the year. Days on market, the number of days from the last price change to contract date, was 201 days, 25 days longer than 176 days in the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, increased to 13.4% from 9.3% in the prior year quarter.

Median sales price was $675,000, down 7.5% from $730,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price followed the same pattern with a decline of 16.2% to $1,335,884 from $1,594,785 in the same period last year. The price indicators in the prior year quarter were pressed upward from the high end skew caused by concern over the potential expiration of the Bush tax cuts and rise in capital gains rate. Buyers and sellers rushed to close before the end of 2010.

The custom data tables are updated and ready for you to play with. The chart section on the new site remains a work in progress.

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2002-2011 Hamptons & North Fork Sales Decade [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2011 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2002-2011 Hamptons & North Fork Decade [Miller Samuel]

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Lost Decade?

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Baby Steps: ...the culmination of a decade of...

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Wednesday, August 24, 2011, by Philip Ferrato

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Northern Virginia Real Estate in the 2000-2010 Decade

The first decade of this century has certainly been a roller coaster in terms of world events and real estate value! The Northern Virginia local Sun Gazette newspaper prints a chart each year that shows the average sales price of homes and number of transactions, as well as the percent change over the previous year. The previous decade closed in 1999 with 22,715 total sales and an average sales price of $238,496 for a home in Northern Virginia.

Looking back over the dawn of the new millennium, I recall the concern that the roll over in digits from 1999 to 2000 might bring. All the preparation led to what turned out to be a very smooth transition. Perhaps due to the effort expended for the new technology, there was a corresponding build up in market value for tech stocks, leading to the dotcom bust which began in March of 2000. Northern Virginia does have the Dulles technology corridor which was impacted some by the bust in tech stocks, but the biggest headline at that time had to do with the Presidential election and the "hanging chad".

Then, who could forget 9-11-2001. For Americans, that date is permanently burned into our psyche. Living close to Washington, DC all of a sudden wasn't perceived as a benefit once people in a very real way saw a plane intentionally flown into the Pentagon. It was like a bomb dropped! Being inside the beltway took on an entirely new meaning. Now, for safety reasons, many people wanted to be as far away as possible. Commerce effectively stalled, including real estate transactions. Honestly, it was like a ghost town in the halls of our McLean real estate office. But slowly people realized that life had to go on, and a new sense of normal came into existence. The Washington, DC metro area real estate market subsequently benefited because in response to the 9-11 attacks, Homeland Security was created.

Those events began the uphill ride of the roller coaster in real estate values, with 5 straight years of double-digit appreciation in sales price from 2001 to 2005. Then as the saying goes: what goes up must come down. In 2006 the market lived off the fumes of 2005; in 2007, the market lived off the fumes of 2006, and in 2008 there were no more fumes. 2008 brought the entire nation to its knees with a financial crisis brought on predominately by the crash of the housing bubble. This market crash, which went from 2007 to 2009 has been primarily attributed to the credit crisis and housing bubble. Interestingly, the peak average home sales price in Northern Virginia occurred in the year 2008 at $538,463, but the peak number of transactions of 32,735 occurred in 2004.

The Sun Gazette chart stated that the average sales price for a home in Northern Virginia for 2009 was $431,018 and that there were 19,035 sales. What will 2010 say? I believe 2010 has shown a year of recovery and that we are a couple of years away from returning to peak value. From 1999 to 2009, there was an average of 8% appreciation on home values, which is still very respectable. As a Realtor who is active in the marketplace, my perspective on 2010 is that it was a fairly normal market. Good properties priced correctly for the current market conditions sold in a reasonable period of time.

If you are a Purchaser waiting for values to go down, for most of the market area, I believe that you missed the bottom! Now is the best time to buy! If you are a Seller of real property in Northern Virginia, know that being in a normal market is still a very good time to sell. The present conditions will probably continue for several more years at least.

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