Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales September 2013

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Pending Home Sales: August 2013

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[Three Cents Worth NY #235] Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Tuesday, June 18, 2013, 5:47 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

As much as I dislike 3D charts and don’t want Curbed readers to wear 3D glasses smeared with greasy popcorn butter, I thought I’d use them on a simple topic. For each quarterly market report release, I group Manhattan into four distinct geographic regions and measure the market share of their sales during each quarter. This chart shows the market share of each region based on sales activity by region…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #230] Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Sunday, May 12, 2013, 1:09 PM

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Since Manhattan sales are fairly heavy right now—basically we’re at High Noon of the annual housing market cycle—I wanted to look at how important spring is to the market and explore how housing sales patterns have changed over the past few decades. I plotted the sales market share for each quarter and separated them into their own charts. For example: 2Q 2012 (last year’s spring market) had sales that represented 25.2 percent of all sales for 2012. I then applied a trend line to each quarter to cut through the volatility. The four quarters (sort of) correlate with the four seasons…

[click to expand chart]

Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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Real Estate Sold: Top Three Residential Property Sales for the Past Seven Days

Tuesday, May 21, 2013, by Sally Kuchar

Listed for: $2,995,000
Received: $2,995,000
Size: 4-bed, 3-bath, 2,365 sq. ft. co-op
Location: #1801 at 1000 North Point St., Russian Hill
The skinny: "FRONT ROW seat for America's Cup," reads the listing. And it's true. Amazing waterfront views aside, this Mid-Century modern cooperative penthouse features a step out balcony that spans the entire north side of the apartment, and a flexible, open floorplan.

Listed for: $2,850,000
Received: $3,200,000
Size: 5-bed, 4-bath, 3,432 sq. ft. single-family home
Location: 2866 Pine St., Lower Pac Heights
The skinny: This big abode landed on the market on April 12 and went into contract less than two weeks later. Last week it sold for a quarter million over asking.

Listed for: $3,125,000
Received: $3,800,000
Size: 5-bed, 3-bath, single-family home
Location: 3867 Washington St., Presidio Heights
The skinny: Listed on April 11 and into contract 11 days later, this home sold last week for a jaw-dropping $675K over asking.

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[Inventory Collapse] 1Q 2013 Manhattan Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Tuesday, April 2, 2013, 8:00 AM

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 1Q 2013 today.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

-Inventory remained near historic lows, seeing the largest year-over-year decline in the 12+ years we’ve tracked it.
-Sales increased despite drop in inventory – low mortgage rates and pent-up demand as key drivers.
-All price indicators increased from year ago levels – largely due to inventory near historic lows.
-Largest price increases since credit crunch began with exception of 2010's federal homeowner tax credit era.
-Days on market and listing discounts dropped as inventory declined.
-Luxury market had slower rate of decline in inventory (about half) than the overall market.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The first quarter Manhattan housing market was defined by the acute shortage of inventory. As with many US housing markets, inventory in Manhattan has been falling for several years; this quarter, listing inventory posted its steepest year-over-year drop in the 12 years we’ve been recording it, declining 34.4% from the prior year quarter to 4,960. This was the ninth consecutive month and the 14th of the last 15 months that has shown a year-over-year decline in inventory. Despite the drop, number of sales increased 6.3% to 2,457 as consumers fought tight credit conditions to take advantage of low mortgage rates, and more still were incentivized by the rise in rental prices over the past two years…

The charts and data tables are updated to include the first quarter of 2013.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report today.

The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales February 2013

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New Home Sales: December 2012

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[Stable and Sandy] 1Q 2012 Hamptons/North Fork Sales Report

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Thursday, April 26, 2012, 2:36 PM
3 Comments

We published our report on Hamptons/North Fork sales for 1Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been authoring this report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Here are some takeaways:

Overall housing prices (median sales price up 1.2% ) continued to show stability.The luxury market showed larger year over year increases in the price indicators than the overall market.Number of sales were up nominally from same period last year (0.5%).Listing inventory is down sharply year over year (down 17.5%) – home sellers are more cautious about entering the market (ie sales flat but inventory falling).Properties taking somewhat longer to sell and there is a little more negotiability on price between buyer and seller (days on market and listing discount expanded)Despite strength in prices at high end, we saw an uptick in market share of sub-million sales – the decline in mortgage rates and warm weather brought buyers out sooner.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Median sales price edged up 1.2% to $630,000 from $622,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price increased 17% to $1,437,597 from $1,228,857 over the same period, largely due to continued strength at the upper end of the market. In the median sales price by quintile analysis, the fifth quintile increased 24.8% yearover- year, while the remainder of the market segments showed modest change and mixed results over the same period…

I’ve got a tool to build custom data tables and view charts on the market.

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Pending Home Sales Surge to Five Year High

Signed contracts also declined in the West, 1.1 percent in October month-to-month and are up just 0.9 percent from a year ago. The West is suffering from a lack of supply, as investors have been scouring the landscape for a decreasing inventory of distressed properties. (Read More: Yes, Housing Starts Surge, but Rentals Are the Drivers)

Pending home sales surged in the Midwest, up 15.6 percent month-to-month and up 20 percent from a year ago. They were also higher in the south by 5.5 percent sequentially and by 17.4 percent from a year ago.

Realtors continue to warn that while this housing recovery seems to be gaining steam, changes to the mortgage interest deduction, as well as other potential hits to the economy from the so-called "fiscal cliff," could derail the momentum. (Read More: Housing Still Precarious in Obama's Second Term)

SECTOR WATCH: Construction & General Building Materials

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

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New Home Sales: October 2012

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New Home Sales: October 2012

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Existing Home Sales Report: October 2012

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Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales October 2012

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Real Estate Sold: Top Three Residential Property Sales for the Past Seven Days

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, November 20, 2012, by Sally Kuchar

Listed for: $2,750,000
Received: $2,750,000
Size: 3-bed, 3.5-bath, 2,877 square foot condo
Location: 2044 Green, Pacific Heights
The skinny: This house looks all its 122 years on the outside, but the interiors have been extensively nipped and tucked to bring the home up to today's modern standards.

Listed for: $3,595,000
Received: $3,050,000
Size: 3-bed, 2-bath, 6,200 square foot penthouse
Location: 9 Bernice, SoMa
The skinny: Featured in the Chron and the Wall Street Journal, this amazing property offers up total aesthetic stimulation. We wonder if the new owner(s) will keep any of the furnishings/decor?

Listed for: $4,950,000
Received: $4,300,000
Size: 3-bed, 3-bath, 2,706 square foot condo
Location: 301 Mission Street, Unit 54A, SoMa
The skinny: This is a North/West corner unit at the Millennium Tower. The third bedroom's been converted into a library. Monthly HOA dues are a mind-numbing $1,485.

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Real Estate Sold: Top Three Residential Property Sales for the Past Seven Days

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, November 20, 2012, by Sally Kuchar

Listed for: $2,750,000
Received: $2,750,000
Size: 3-bed, 3.5-bath, 2,877 square foot condo
Location: 2044 Green, Pacific Heights
The skinny: This house looks all its 122 years on the outside, but the interiors have been extensively nipped and tucked to bring the home up to today's modern standards.

Listed for: $3,595,000
Received: $3,050,000
Size: 3-bed, 2-bath, 6,200 square foot penthouse
Location: 9 Bernice, SoMa
The skinny: Featured in the Chron and the Wall Street Journal, this amazing property offers up total aesthetic stimulation. We wonder if the new owner(s) will keep any of the furnishings/decor?

Listed for: $4,950,000
Received: $4,300,000
Size: 3-bed, 3-bath, 2,706 square foot condo
Location: 301 Mission Street, Unit 54A, SoMa
The skinny: This is a North/West corner unit at the Millennium Tower. The third bedroom's been converted into a library. Monthly HOA dues are a mind-numbing $1,485.

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Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales October 2012

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New Home Sales: September 2012

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Pending Home Sales: September 2012

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Real Estate Sold: Top Three Residential Property Sales for the Past Seven Days

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Tuesday, November 13, 2012, by Sally Kuchar

Listed for: $2,275,000
Received: $2,150,000
Size: 3-bed, 3-bath, 2,251 square foot condo
Location: #13 at 550 Davis Street, FiDi
The skinny: This duplex overlooks Sydney Walton Park. It was remodeled in 2012. Of the three bedrooms, one has been converted into a home theater and the other into a home office.

Listed for: $3,095,000
Received: $2,600,000
Size: 3-bed, 2.5-bath, 2,896 square foot condo
Location: 2462 Broadway, Pacific Heights
The skinny: This condo's been on and off the market since June of 2011. It's significantly dropped it's price several times, and the last chop to $2,699,000 must have done the trick because it sold on Friday.

Listed for: $4,200,000
Received: $3,660,000
Size: 4-bed, 3.5-bath, 4,609 square foot single-family home
Location: 3878 Jackson Street, Presidio Heights
The skinny: This big abode has been on and off the market since late 2008 without a single bite. It's last listed price was $3,850,000, which seemed to work as it sold on Friday.

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