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Showing posts with label Bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bubble. Show all posts
Friday, March 22, 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
How The Bear Popped The Bubble!
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Friday, November 16, 2012
Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices July 2012
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Friday, July 27, 2012
Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices April 2012
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Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices February 2012
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Thursday, February 23, 2012
Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices December 2011
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Saturday, January 28, 2012
As Home Buying Returns, Do Apartments Face a Bubble?
Eric Audras | Photoalto | Getty Images2012 will likely not see as robust rent growth as 2011; housing affordability continues to improve and renting is becoming ever more expensive than owning. A huge surge in rental demand and comparatively little apartment supply created a boom in multi-family construction in the last year, but with the single family housing market slowly beginning to show signs of life, the concern among banks and investors is that all that supply will hit the market just as rental demand drops off. Based on preliminary estimates of Q4 '11 activity, multi-family loan origination volume increased to $82 billion in 2011, up from $50 billion in 2010, according to Chandan Economics. Understandably, some lenders and investors are starting to ask questions. "While 2012 should be another good year for apartment REITs, there is concern amongst some investors and managements that market expectations may be hard to beat," say analysts at Sandler O'Neill. "Based on discussions with managements, revenue growth should match sentiment but expense growth may be the wildcard." Rents have been rising steadily as apartment vacancies drop and "rental nation" pervades consumer sentiment, but 2012 will likely not see as robust rent growth as 2011; housing affordability continues to improve and renting is becoming ever more expensive than owning. "A stretched consumer is beginning to push back harder against rental increases, and new supply and a slowly healing single-family market will begin to equalize what has been a lopsided, renter-dominated housing market for over 5 years," say analysts at Green Street Advisors. Mortgage applications surged 23 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers association, although most of that was refinances. Another positive came from the NAHB's home builder sentiment index, which saw big gains in builder confidence, citing improved sales and buyer traffic. So is there real cause for concern about apartment demand? "Only in some markets," says Sam Chandan of Chandan Economics. "Austin is a case in point. The supply response has been unusually strong there. Apart from specific cases like that, we do not anticipate a strong reversal in the rental bias until jobs accelerate markedly." Since 2004, when homeownership rates peaked, the population of 20-34-year-olds grew by 2.8 million, according to researchers at CoStar Group, a commercial real estate information company. But the number of households shrunk by 300,000. In other words, younger Americans were doubling up with roommates or moving back in with their parents. "This suggests big pent up demand - as much as 1.4 million new households within this prime renting cohort," says CoStar's Suzanne Mulvee. We also have to remember that many Americans now have either damaged credit or not enough of a downpayment to qualify for today's low interest rate mortgages. That could keep them as renters for many more years, as credit standards aren't likely to loosen any time soon.Pent-up demand will, like everything else in real estate, vary from market to market. In Washington, DC, for example, investors in multi-family are still very bullish, as home prices are strengthening and apartment supply is still limited. In other areas, like Las Vegas, where distressed homes are selling at big discounts, rental demand may wane more quickly for apartments, as those unwilling to buy choose to rent single family homes. Another headwind to the multi-family sector could be more investors buying foreclosed single-family homes in bulk to rent. With federal regulators and the Obama administration seriously considering a program to sell bulk foreclosures owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, there could suddenly be a large supply of single family rentals competing against multi-family buildings. Again, that would largely be in the sand states, as there are far fewer foreclosed homes in major cities where apartments are and will likely continue to see big gains. Questions? Comments? document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_OlickWednesday, January 11, 2012
Linkage: Wallace Neff's Last Remaining "Bubble House"; Toile; More!
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Thursday, January 5, 2012
How The Bear Popped The Bubble!
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Sunday, December 25, 2011
Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices October 2011
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Saturday, August 27, 2011
[Jornal da Globo] Brazil: Sao Paulo up 85%, Rio up 100%. Bubble?
A primary news service in Brazil, Jornal da Globo, interviewed me on the housing market and I did a quick overview of the 2008 and laid out the US part of the story. If you blink you might miss me but its a balanced story and it seems to me like Brazil is in year 2006 of our cycle.
[click to see video]
The reporter told me that their economists and regulators say they are not in a bubble. However consumers have easy access to credit and there has been double digit multi-year housing growth far outpacing rental prices. That’s a housing bubble, no?
Incidentally, the day before this interview I was interviewed by a Chinese Television station with a similar story but less optimistic about the state of their market – saw it as a bubble.
Here’s a good Financial Times article on the Brazil housing market from last spring: Housing boom raises fears of Brazil bubble [subscription]
Entenda as causas do crescimento nos preços dos imóveis no Brasil [Jornal da Globo]
Understand the causes of growth in property prices in Brazil [English Translation]
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
San Marino, Calif., Remains Impervious to Housing Bubble: A story in the Los Angeles...
× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Monday, January 31, 2011, by Sarah
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Housing Bubble Predictions For 2011
What’s your housing bubble prediction for the new year? Some from last summer. “The hardest part is filtering the country’s situation through the neighborhood particulars we’re dealing with. There is increased inventory but it’s in all the 3500+ niches because basically that’s all that’s been built here in the last 20 years. I wouldn’t be interested in anything that size anyway. I’ll gingerly venture forth with the prediction that the 3500+ niche will see a price collapse by next spring due to burgeoning inventory. But these sellers have been pretty stubborn and I haven’t seen as much price reduction as one might imagine by properties sitting up to a year. Many just take them off the market thinking they’ll try later when the market improves.”
One from California said. “Here in SoCal (Orange county) there is *way* too much shadow inventory. How long can the banks hang on? If just one bank (probably one of the smaller ones) breaks
rank and starts dumping, then all bets are off. It will be a tsunami of epic proportions.”
Another said. “For the rest of 2010, I see a continuation of the current trends: declines in home sales, stocks, and even oil, but no crash. The economy cannot improve until the old order (unsustainable government debt, artificially low interest rates, misallocation of resources to zombie corporations, worship at the idol of homeownership) is swept away. But the people who have a vested interest in the old order are so powerful, they can keep it going awhile longer.”
And one looks further, “The private sector economy has stopped getting worse in the aggregate, but will not get much better. Housing prices and wages will continue to drift down in real dollars, and will only stabilize or improve in nominal dollars if we get inflation, which will probably not occur until 2012. Aggregate employment gains will occur, but they will be small compared with the prior losses.”
“The next big crisis hits in mid-2011, and it will concern the public sector this time. With the economy stalled, the federal government tapped out, and state and local governments in crisis, there won’t be much way to avoid some serious pain. I don’t expect serious economic improvement on the private side until 2012, and that assumes we aren’t Japaning or Greecing. On the public side, that improvement may take decades — until the last boomer dies.”
A poster from Baltimore, “I predict a major riot/civil unrest in a city before the end of this year. You know the drill; police kill unarmed blk male, crowd forms, name calling, bottles thrown, shots fired, fires set, looting…Oh wait a minute? the president is black right?”
“Strike that; Obama will start a “real war” with Iran or N Korea that scares the ___ out of everybody and forces the masses to rally around the flag; those who challenge it will be neutralized by being called racists for not supporting the blk president. Pretty slick eh?”
One posted, “With respect to the second half of 2010, I don’t think most people have factored in the impact from the Gulf Oil disaster, or the real ongoing deterioration of the economy. The Gulf oil disaster will create a Gulf area economic disaster and plunge many businesses, families, banks, and states into insolvency. Many properties are now becoming less than worthless, where last year they were potentially income producing.”
“The government and MSM have already used such ludicrous Psy-Ops memes about “recovery” and “green shoots” as to have destroyed any credibility they once had, IMHO. California State workers facing minimum wage should tell you things are getting worse, not better. Second half 2010 = more pain, higher unemployment, more bankruptcies, more foreclosures, lower standard of living for most Americans. The collapse of the bubble continues.”
One from DC, “So hot here in D.C. ! Anyway, prices have not bottomed out, imho. Remember the run-up was crazy (100 - 200% in some areas). Prices have a loooong way to go before people can afford them with rational loans. Plus, the job market has stalled and shows no signs of improving…..Freddie, Fannie have not stabilized and frankly, need to be broken up. Plus, Pluto has just begun its transit through Capricorn (don’t laugh) which means the return to more practical lending has just begun.”
And this, “Conspiracy time: It’s possible we’ll discover that a lot of the “shadow inventory” was sold off in bulk, possibly to creditor nations (like China) in exchange for our Treasury debt. US Gov announces shift in immigration policy: Foreign nationals that own property in US are now eligible to apply for green card.”
One said, “A few less people in denial. A few more businesses closed. A few more houses with reduced prices. A few more natural disasters. A little less hope, a little less denial, a little more pain, a little more anger. Less belief in the China miracle.”
“What is happening in Germany is perhaps a fuse for the US. Those people know what big inflation is and they want it less than the rest of us, so they might be ahead of the curve. Asia won’t drag us into the next decade, they are the delayed extrapolation of what happens in the US and Europe. Austerity is a new word in politics. I expect we will hear it a lot towards November.”
A macro-economic look, “The bad news is the Gov is running out of money. The good news is the Gov is running out of money. These states such as Illinois and California have to stop spending when they can’t borrow anymore. The fact that their situation is so bad is really good as it shows their is not way out for them. If they do raise taxes, we will welcome their manufacturing and other employment to move to South Carolina. Same goes for Greece. They now have to pay for things and can’t afford them and so they have a crisis. The crisis is a good thing.”
“Housing will continue to crash and will go down another 50% in the states that had the worst of the bubble. It just makes the country a bit more livable for the young folks. A good thing.”
“Even the failure of the stimulus is a good thing. If they had never tried it, they would have said it would have worked. They tried it and it did nothing except break the bank. Done with that and so we can move on to fiscal responsibility. Another good thing. I am optimistic today. Let it all crash. Most of us know that the future is on the other side of the crash.”
And finally, “Uncle Sam seems to have decided to temporarily pursue a treatment of housing market bloodletting, in the wake of throwing in the towel on failing stabilization efforts. ‘Worse than expected’ 2nd-half price declines and sales are the likely result. Slow sales and lower prices are the result of a drop in demand coupled with stubborn sellers who don’t get the picture.”
“This scenario will persist in fits and starts until local home prices have declined to a level in line with local incomes and rents. Never forget: All real estate is local.”
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