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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Bits Bucket for July 24, 2012

First major flaw in your math is using life expectancy from birth (78 years). If you die from a childhood disease, retirement is not a big concern of yours. You should use life expectancy from 65. According to the SSA, life expectancy from age 65 is 17 for men and 20 for women.

The second major flaw is the $2 million figure. The $2 million assumes earning 5% interest and you needing $100K a year in retirement, and not touching the principal.

Or.. I suppose… 2% return and you needing $40K a year, without touching the principal.

How much would you need at .1% interest and needing $30K a year to supplement SS? $30 million?

Median household income is $50K. Assuming you were able to save 5% per year ($2500) and earn 2% above inflation (yeah, right), then at the end of 40 years you would have $154K.

Assuming you could continue to make 2% above inflation, and not touch principal, you would be earning $3K a year on your savings.

25% a year savings would increase this to $768K at the end of 40 years. 50% savings would net them $1.5M. They would have to save a full 66% off their income, for 40 years, and make a constant 2% above inflation, to have the equivalent of $2 million.

Of course, then, assuming 5% return, they would be making $100K a year in retirement, and had been living on $17.5K for the previous 40 years.

For the vast, vast, vast majority of households, the $2 million is no more realistic than telling them they should save $2 quadrillion.

$2 million is a marketing slogan targeted at those making more than $100K a year, to scare them into saving more. Realistically, unless your household income is above $100K, and you are able to save 30% or more (or you earn $150K and save 20%), then the $2 million figure is totally unreasonable.

My wife and I earn a combined $160K. Saving 5%, then getting a company match, bringing our total savings up to 10% of income, and adding in our current $100K in savings… over the next 20 years, assuming 2% above inflation rate of return (which we’ve not gotten since 2008) we would be lucky to have half a million dollars.

I won’t even mention how it is mathematically impossible for every entity in an economy to be accumulating money, without an equal amount of new debt being generated… Oops, I just did.

I am sure that Bill in LA will boast returns far in excess of 2% above inflation. I will counter by pointing out that is the DOW had hit 2% above inflation, every year for the last 40 years, it would be at 12,300. Oh, right where it is.

While it is possible for some to beat the average, it is impossible for all, and unlikely that a statistically significant number of people will beat it by a significant amount.


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IKEA 2013: What's In It For the Kids?

2012ikeakids11_rect540 The most kid-friendly addition to the PS collection are these new bamboo and steel side tables - plain or with four bowls.

The release of the new IKEA catalog has become a rite of summer. Janel highlighted some of the best ideas from their stylists to try at home and Max described some of his favorite products from the press preview. I'm most interested in what's new for kids.

Compared to past years, there really aren't many new kids products in the 2013 catalog. (Although IKEA does sometimes roll things out during the year that don't make it into the catalog.) The standouts come from the anticipated PS collection.

Above are my picks for the most interesting family and kid products in the 2013 catalog as well as a notable price reduction on the Duktig play kitchen.

The catalog is already landing in mailboxes around the country, but you can also view the digital version here.

(Images: IKEA)


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Top 5: The Five Least Expensive Properties For Sale in Presidio Heights

× Like us and you'll find top breaking news in your Facebook newsfeed. Sign up for our daily email newsletter and get top stories and breaking news delivered to your inbox. Monday, July 23, 2012, by Sally Kuchar

Screen%20shot%202012-07-23%20at%209.23.09%20AM.pngThis week we're heading to the land of fancy schmancy and extremely expensive. There are currently 14 homes for sale in Presidio Heights; the least expensive is just under $1M and the most expensive is $25M. (That would be the 3800 Washington estate that comes with 3810 Washington and 125 Maple.) Here now, the five least expensive homes for sale in Presidio Heights, one of San Francisco's swankiest neighborhoods. Onwards!

399026_3_0.jpeg5) 3935 Washington Street
Asking price: $4,150,000
Size: 5-bed, 5.5-bath, 4,700-square-feet
Price per square foot: $883
The skinny: This home's been on the market three days. It last sold in 1988 for $1,200,000. One of the obvious advantages to living in Presidio Heights is the neighborhood's close proximity to the Presidio, a 1,500 acre national park that you can frolic in as much as you'd like. Property highlights include two bathrooms in the master suite and a chef's kitchen.

396589_4_C.jpeg4) 3878 Jackson Street
Asking price: $3,895,000
Size: 4-bed, 3.5-bath, 4,609-square-feet
Price per square foot: $845
The skinny: This home has had two stints back on the market since it last sold in 1999 for $2,100,000. It made an appearance in 2008 and 2010, although asking prices at this time are unknown. It reappeared in early May of this year asking $3,999,000, but has since reduced that price by $104,000. It has "expansive & volumes public rooms w/ 12' ceilings." It also had a "major rehab & addition in mid 90s w/ most systems modernized. Few cosmetic changes may be desire to suit current trends."

397709_2.jpeg3) 3561 Sacramento Street
Asking price: $3,595,000
Size: 5-bed, 4.5-bath, 3,218-square-feet
Price per square foot: $1,117
The skinny: This home's been on the market for 46 days. There's a 1-bed, 1-bath pied-à-terre somewhere in the property, and is "perfect for home office, guest apartment or au pair quarters." We're a tad bit confused by the listing, but we're under the impression that this is a free standing residence that's part of a 4-unit condo project. Monthly HOA dues are not listed, there's 1-car parking in the garage.

396080_1_0.jpeg2) 166 Arguello Boulevard
Asking price: $3,050,000
Size: 5-bed, 4.5-bath, unlisted square footage
Price per square foot: Unavailable
The skinny: This unit's been on and off the market since October, 2011. It last sold in 2006 for $2,360,000. It was originally built by the Newsom & Newsom architectural firm. The lower floor has a separate entrance and "possible one bedroom with bath, family room, kitchenette, a spectacular wine cellar and patio leading to a lush landscaped garden." We don't know if that means there's an incredibly swankily inlaw apartment on the lower floor or if it's just bad space planning.

397717_11_2.jpeg1) 3332 Clay Street
Asking price: $985,000
Size: 2-bed, 1.25-bath, 1,430-square-feet
Price per square foot: $689
The skinny: This is a TIC in a 7-unit building. The unit received extensive updates that include a chef's kitchen, bathroom remodel, recessed lighting and more. We think the remodel went a little nuts with the the trendy stuff, but hey, removing that Baroque wallpaper in the kitchen is an easy task. It's been on the market for 46 days.


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Now It's the Big Banks That Are Getting Foreclosed On

Call it a case of man bites dog. Since the start of the housing crash, millions of Americans have lost their homes to foreclosure. Many of them lived in homeowner or condo associations.

Home Owners Association

These are organizations that collect monthly dues to pay for amenities, like added security, maintenance and recreational areas; one in five Americans currently lives in an association-governed community.

These associations have been hit hard by the housing crisis, as many delinquent borrowers stopped paying their monthly HOA dues. In some cases, HOA’s, which do have the authority in many states, managed to foreclose on properties even before the banks, by using the back dues as liens.

Now the homeowner associations are taking it one step further. They are going after the banks, claiming that several of the largest lenders are not paying monthly HOA/condo fees on homes they’ve repossessed and now hold as bank-owned properties (Real Estate Owned, or commonly called REO’s).

“The association has both a statutory right under the Florida laws as well as rights under its restrictive covenant in the community, and it pursues those rights just like any other owner,” says attorney Ben Solomon of Florida’s Association Law Center. “ In this legal scenario JP Morgan [JPM  Loading...      ()   ] is no different than any other homeowner in the community who has failed to pay.”

Solomon is representing Homestead Florida’s Keys Gate Community Association, which claims JP Morgan owes two years of back dues worth over $19,000 on a foreclosed home. It is one of dozens of foreclosure suits against several of the nation’s largest lenders by homeowner and condo associations claiming back dues.

“I pay my dues, other people pay their dues, I just feel that JP Morgan should have paid theirs,” says Don Gonzalez, a homeowner in the Keys Gate Community.

Gonzalez says the foreclosure crisis has hit his neighborhood hard. The association can no longer pay for a full time security guard, an amenity that drew Gonzalez to the community in the first place.

“We are seeing with much more regularity that when banks take title to units, they don't pay any carrying costs,” says Solomon. “What they prefer to do is market the unit through an REO sale, and when they finally dispossess the unit, no matter how long that takes, sometimes a year or two years or more, then they will go ahead and pay past due amounts if the association is not proactively pursing them to get paid the additional amounts quicker.”

A representative from JP Morgan says that while they have lost other homes to HOAs in lawsuits over delinquent dues, in this particular case, the bank serviced the mortgage, but the ownership during the past two years may be in question.

“Chase has a strong commitment to stabilizing neighborhoods hardest hit by foreclosure," a JP Morgan spokesperson said. "We pay HOA dues on properties we own. We are researching the title on this particular property.”

Solomon disputes that, and produced a title document showing the transfer of title in 2008 to JP Morgan.

“JP Morgan took title to the property from my association client (after the association had already previously foreclosed on Wells Fargo’s [WFC  Loading...      ()   ] original buyer) on April 28, 2010.

Attached is a copy of the Certificate of Title evidencing that JP Morgan has owned the unit for over two years since that date and a copy of the Agreed Order where we sued JP Morgan to require them to take title to the unit and they ‘agreed,’” Solomon wrote in a follow up to our interview.

In fact, the home was sold to an investor in June of this year, and Solomon says that investor could also be on the hook for the back dues. As investors flood the housing market, looking to turn cheap foreclosures into profitable rentals, it is yet another warning: Make sure the property is free and clear of any liens, including HOA/condo fees.

While this case has its unique complications, others are more straightforward, involving bank-owned properties where title is not in question. In one case, Solomon says a Miami Beach condo association was successful in repossessing a home from a bank over back dues. The association then sold the home to pay the back dues.

-By CNBC's Diana Olick

Questions?  Comments?  document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick


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