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Showing posts with label Existing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Existing. Show all posts
Monday, December 3, 2012
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Existing Home Sales Report: September 2012
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Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Existing Home Sales Report: August 2012
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Existing Home Sales Report: April 2012
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Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Existing Home Sales Report: March 2012
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Existing Home Sales Report: December 2011
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Thursday, September 22, 2011
Existing Home Sales Report: August 2011
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Friday, June 3, 2011
Existing Home Sales Report: April 2011
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Saturday, April 23, 2011
A Better Alternative to NARs Existing Home Sales Data
There has been a lot of scuttlebutt recently about the veracity of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing home sales data and while the NAR has promised to review its procedures and release revised numbers later this year, this might be as good a time as any to cut over to a new and better quality measure of home sales. As I have been suggesting for almost two years now, the S&P/Case-Shiller Sale Pair Counts can be used as a high quality “organic” existing home sales index and an excellent alternative to the NARs volatile (and apparently incorrect) existing home sales numbers.
Given that the S&P/Case-Shiller methodology in constructing their home price indices seeks to constrain the source data down to organic “arms-length” transactions, vetting out “flips”, new construction and even most distressed sales, the sale pair counts associated to each price index (S&P publishes the price index and the associated counts of sale pairs used to construct each price index) capture a unique picture of existing family home sales and one that is more compatible with the trends seen for new home sales and clearly less fraught with the distortions apparently present in the NAR data.
The only slight down side of using the sale pair counts is that S&P does NOT seasonally adjust this data so their published data shows very strong seasonal movement which can make analysis difficult.
But never fear reader … I have taken it upon myself to download the Census Bureau’s X12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment software application and created seasonally adjusted series for both the Composite-10 and Composite-20 sale pair counts… I will adjust all other sale pair indices including the condo sale pair counts later the week and post the results.
Looking at the latest data, the seasonally adjusted Composite-10 sale pair count is indicating that sales are near all time lows while increasing 0.78% between November and December 2010 but remaining 27.56% below the level seen in December 2009.
Looking at the chart (click for full-screen dynamic version) it’s clear that while the worst of the home sales slide is likely behind us, the market is far from healed and likely still some way off of defining a bottom.
Labels: economy, existing home sales, housing collapse
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Sunday, February 27, 2011
Existing Home Sales Report: December 2010
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for December showing a continued increase in sales coming in the wake of the now obviously phony baloney government tax gimmick sponsored surge in home sales activity seen earlier in 2010 and 2009. Single family home sales increased 11.8% since November but remained 2.5% below the level seen last year while prices declined 0.2% since November and fell 0.18% below the level seen in December 2009.
Further, inventory remains high climbing 9.4% above the level seen in December 2009 which, combined with the relatively slow pace of sales, resulted in a monthly supply of 7.8.
The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.
Labels: economy, existing home sales
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Thursday, January 13, 2011
Existing Home Sales Report: November 2010
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November showing a slight bounce in sales coming in the wake of the now obviously phony baloney government tax credit sponsored surge in home sales activity seen earlier in the year. Single family home sales increased 6.7% since October but remained a whopping 27.32% below the level seen last year while prices declined 0.12% since October but climbed 1.18% above the level seen in November 2009.
It's important to recognize that the annual pace of sales is currently well below the lows seen even during the worst months of 2008 and early 2009.
Further, inventory remains high climbing 6.7% above the level seen in November 2009 which, combined with the slow pace of sales, resulted in a large monthly supply of 9.3.
Clearly, all can now see that the government's housing tax credit was not only a gimmick... it was a complete failure, a massively wasteful and expensive handout to the housing industry and a futile and likely very dangerous exercise in market manipulation.
The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.
Labels: economy, existing home sales
PaperEconomy Blog - www.papereconomy.com
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