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Showing posts with label Conspicuous. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conspicuous. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales February 2013
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Sunday, December 2, 2012
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales October 2012
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Sunday, November 18, 2012
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales October 2012
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Friday, February 24, 2012
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales January 2012
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales December 2011
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Friday, December 30, 2011
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales November 2011
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Thursday, October 27, 2011
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales September 2011
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales January 2011
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.3% since December bringing the total increase since last year to 7.8% on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales, on the other hand, declined 1.18% from December but climbed 3.90% above the level seen in January 2010 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 2.64% over the same period.
On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.
The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.
As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.
Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.
Labels: economy, retail sales
PaperEconomy Blog - www.papereconomy.com
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Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales December 2010
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.6% since November bringing the total increase since last year to 7.9% on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales increased 0.38% from November and climbed 5.69% above the level seen in December 2009 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 4.24% over the same period.
On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.
The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.
As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.
Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.
Labels: economy, housing collapse, retail sales
PaperEconomy Blog - www.papereconomy.com
All Rights Reserved
Friday, December 24, 2010
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales November 2010
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing a notable increase of 0.8% since October bringing the total increase since last year to 7.7% on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales increased 0.74% from October and climbed 5.81% above the level seen in November 2009 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 4.68% over the same period.
On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.
The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.
As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.
Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.
Labels: economy, housing collapse, retail sales
PaperEconomy Blog - www.papereconomy.com
All Rights Reserved
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