[Manhattan Absorption] January 2012 Y-O-Y Pace Generally Accelerating

Posted by Jonathan J. Miller -Monday, February 27, 2012, 8:50 AM
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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market.

Side by Side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

Thoughts

Manhattan All price segments below $3M were faster than the 10 year absorption rate. Segments above $3M showed signs of cooling, specifically in the $3M-$5M and $10M+ range.East Side Co-op absorption showed an across-the-board slow down with all segments remaining higher than the 10-year overall average rate. Conversely, the rate for condos accelerated for all segments but the $2M and $10M+.West Side All absorption price segments generally accelerated with the exception of $10M+ that slowed sharply.Downtown The rates by segment generally accelerated below $5M and $10M+. The $5 to $10M segment slowed.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

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